Small Craft Advisory 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

473 
FZAK52 PAFC 132342
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141215-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 MB LOW 145 SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 210 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT AT 999 MB AND DISSIPATES MON AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW
400 NM WEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 50 NM EAST OF SHEMYA AND DISSIPATES
SUN AFTERNOON. A 962 MB LOW 500 NM WEST OF ATTU MON MORNING MOVES
TO 490 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-141215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT ALONG THE
COAST...BECOMING SW TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141215-
BRISTOL BAY-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141215-
UNALASKA BAY-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-141215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
242 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
ALONG 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING ALONG
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE ONE FEATURE THEY
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH IS THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS THIS LOW WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND ON SATURDAY THE MODELS ARE A BIT SPLIT ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW GOES. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS LOW WITH
THE CENTER FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE CLUSTERED...PUTTING THE LOW OVER KODIAK
OR EVEN TO THE WEST OF IT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THUS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW TEMPORARILY WEAKENS. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING AND A WARM LAYER PERSISTS
ALOFT AS NOTED ON THE ANCHORAGE AFTERNOON SOUNDING. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM ANCHORAGE TOWARDS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ALL SNOW MOVING INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. A
FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND HELP TO LIMIT ANY MAJOR IMPACTS...WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL THEN COME TO AN END DURING THE
MORNING AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THAT
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL HAVE MOISTURE SPILLING-OVER FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
BY SATURDAY THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE SHELIKOF STRAIT REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR BEFORE SPILLING OVER INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S IN THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION EXCEPT FOR UPPER 30S ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. WHILE
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL BE
IN THE MID 20S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BROAD EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING WILL KEEP WEATHER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE AREA QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE AKPEN WILL THEN CLIP THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS/AKPEN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT AND ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE AKPEN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

STARTING MONDAY THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
BERING WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE
INTO THE BERING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BRINGING COLD AIR BACK TO THE MAINLAND/BERING SEA AS A
SERIES OF COLD LOWS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COME FROM
THE KAMCHATKA INTO THE BERING SEA...AND THE OTHER FROM THE
BEAUFORT SEA INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS
TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND SNOW/RAIN ON
MON-TUE...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND SHOULD BRING
SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE 12 AND 18Z GFS RUNS IN PARTICULAR ARE STRONG
OUTLIERS BY CAUSING MOST OF THE ENERGY TO DIVE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AOR AND DEEPEN...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AND INSTEAD AN OUTFLOW EVENT FOR THE GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS AND CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE KEEP A
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE GULF...BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE
GULF COAST AND MOSTLY DOWNSLOPING TO SOUTHCENTRAL. AS A RESULT IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE BERING AND GULF COAST...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANCES IN
ENDING THE SNOW DROUGHT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK