Small Craft Advisory 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

657 
FZAK51 PAFC 090045
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091345-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MOVES INLAND NEAR CAPE
FAIRWEATHER TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. A 973 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SITKINAK TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT
AT 975 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-091345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-091345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ121-091345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-091345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-091345-
PORT VALDEZ-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-091345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-091345-
VALDEZ ARM-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-091345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-091345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-091345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ132-091345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-091345-
CHINIAK BAY-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-091345-
MARMOT BAY-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-091345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-091345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-091345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-091345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
345 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POWERFUL NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STRONG LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THERE IS A
MATURE HURRICANE FORCE LOW. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY
UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF A ONCE LOW END STORM FORCE
(WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS) LOW AND FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. EAST OF THIS LOW...SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA...WITH
ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SUPPORT SNOW AND MIXED RAIN. ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING MOST INLAND LOCATIONS DRY WITH ONLY
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AND THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS FAR OUT AS THE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH RIDGING SITTING OFF TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SEVERAL LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE SECOND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ITS FRONT
HITTING THE COAST ALSO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...THE PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. YET ANOTHER LOW IS
PREPARING TO CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...IT
WILL CAUSE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO GIVE WAY TO WARMER AND
MOISTER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FAVORED GAPS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST
PARALLELING THE COASTLINE...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN HALF OF BRISTOL BAY. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL INITIALLY STAY SLIGHTLY DRIER UNDER CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN CAPES. IT WILL LIKELY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.

AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT ON TUE...IT WILL ALSO
CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND ACROSS THE YK DELTA. IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER...MAINLY TO COASTAL
AREAS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUE BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE GUSTIER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...MON AND
TUE)...A STORM-FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG 385 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BUT FOR THE CHAIN ITSELF
THOUGH...ONLY SOME GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. BY EARLY TUE...IT WILL
PUSH THE WARM OCCLUSION INTO DUTCH HARBOR BRINGING RAIN AND A
CHANCE TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS LOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE WARM OCCLUSION SLOWLY STRETCHING BACK
TOWARD ATKA AND ADAK WITH COLDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH STORMS SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY GALE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IF A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG CHANNELED COASTAL TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC PICKS UP A FASTER EASTERLY TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID RANGE FORECAST
CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE EASTERN BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE  130 131 132 136 155 172 174 176 177 351 352

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...KH