Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

206 
FZAK51 PAFC 060424 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

RETRANSMISSION

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061715-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED 975 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK ISLAND ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-061715-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061715-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061715-
RESURRECTION BAY-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061715-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061715-
PORT VALDEZ-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061715-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061715-
VALDEZ ARM-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061715-
PASSAGE CANAL-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061715-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061715-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061715-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061715-
CHINIAK BAY-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061715-
MARMOT BAY-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061715-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061715-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061715-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061715-
KACHEMAK BAY-
724 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

632 
FZAK51 PAFC 061211
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070130-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW 35 NM NORTH OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HOMER LATE SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATES SAT EVENING. A 975 MB
LOW ENTERS 280 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SUN AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 120
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AS A 980 MB LOW BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-070130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ120-070130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-070130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-070130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-070130-
PORT VALDEZ-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-070130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-070130-
VALDEZ ARM-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-070130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-070130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-070130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-070130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-070130-
CHINIAK BAY-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-070130-
MARMOT BAY-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-070130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-070130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ140-070130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-070130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
311 AM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE SCALE REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS VERY MUCH
THE SAME THIS MORNING. IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A POWERFUL NORTH
PACIFIC JET STREAM...A STOUT NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND A BROAD ALEUTIAN LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. REGIONS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR REMAIN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
AND NORTHERN CANADA...WITH WARM WEDGES OF AIR CONTINUING TO PUMMEL
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS POWERFUL LOWS UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NORTH PAC JET BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER ONE OF
THESE FORMERLY STORM-FORCE LOWS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE REGION
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A SUPPLY OF SIBERIAN ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
AREA.

RADAR DEPICTS A RATHER BROAD REGION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE GULF COAST IN SOUTHEAST FLOW...WITH MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER COLD BAY. WITH TIME...THE
GENERAL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INLAND
LOCATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DEEP INTO NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DEEP STORM-FORCE
LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE THEY ARE STRUGGLING IS WITH SMALLER SCALE
FRONTS AND LOWS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH A FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE UP COOK INLET
TODAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND ORIENTATION...WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALL ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA NEAR
COOK INLET UP INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. WHILE
BRIEF...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO POPULATED AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING RUSH HOUR
TRAFFIC. WHILE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED...THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIOD
OF BRIEF MODERATE SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ALL THE MODELS
HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS...SO A BLEND OF ALL OF THEM WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THEREAFTER...A GENERAL
BLEND TO THE ECMWF AND GFS WAS FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER FRONT THAT IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE TODAY AND MOVE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REACH THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MATANUSKA/SUSITNA
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE INITIAL WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING RATHER FAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE WELL
INLAND TONIGHT AND BREAK APART. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT-MAX WILL PUSH
INTO KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IT WILL THEN BREAK APART WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRAIL THE VORT-MAX THE ENTIRE
TIME...MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SEWARD AROUND NOON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LEADING FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IMPACTING BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING...BRINGING AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE. PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ZONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ISLAND AREAS AND PENINSULA
OF THE BERING REGION. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FREQUENTLY
BELOW A MILE WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COLD ADVECTION
KICKS IN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A CHANGE IN WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BEFORE ALSO DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SMALL LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TONIGHT AND WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
SYSTEM NEAR THE AKPEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO BRISTOL
BAY...LEAVING MUCH QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUN THROUGH THU)...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF AK OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT INTO THE COAST SUN
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO MANY OF THOSE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION. WE DID INCREASE THE WINDS ALONG IT TO MAXIMUM GALES
WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
STRONGER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER STORM
FORCE FRONT ALONG THE COAST.

A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA CONTINUES TO STAY
ANCHORED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE AN AXIS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES FOR TWO CLOSED LOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS GENERAL PATTERN KEEPS A WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND COASTS AS RIDGING
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST AND AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS 132 150 155 170 172 176 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH/MSO