Small Craft Advisory 1044, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2016, 2:55 PM AKST (23:55 UTC)

Expired

Jan 1, 2017, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

335 
FZAK52 PAFC 312355
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011300-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 956 MB 
LOW 450 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES INLAND TONIGHT OVER EASTERN
RUSSIA AND WEAKENS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 998 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 140 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 991 MB
BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN RUSSIA MON
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-011300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 15 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011300-
BRISTOL BAY-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011300-
UNALASKA BAY-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
60 KT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
255 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 50 KT.
SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 40 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 31, 4:54 AM AKST, 10 hours 1 minute earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKST Sat Dec 31 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge covers most of the Bering and mainland AK
this morning, with an upper low over Kamchatka. At the surface, a
large ridge is centered over the western Gulf of AK and the AKpen,
while a surface low is over the extreme western Bering. A tight
gradient between these features is bringing storm and gale force
winds to the central and eastern Aleutians, as well as much of the
Bering. A pair of warm moisture streams from the tropics are also
associated with the area of strong winds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in excellent agreement with respect to features and
wind speeds. The forecast utilizes some NAM and GFS for fine-
tuning.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A quiet weather pattern has arrived for Southcentral for the next
few days, as surface high pressure pushes eastward into the Gulf
of Alaska and becomes established in the southern mainland.
The sounding this morning indicates dry air throughout the lower
atmosphere. This in combination with persistent offshore flow is
helping to keep Southcentral mostly fog free overnight. Light
winds are also keeping temperatures from plummeting too much
overnight under clear skies. It is more uncertain tonight on how
much fog will develop as winds relax further. Models still
indicate conditions will be too dry for widespread fog, but patchy
fog along Cook Inlet and in sheltered valleys is not out of the
question.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Clouds and southeasterly winds will increase today. A weak
disturbance aloft ushers in a new pattern of deep southwesterly
flow as it clips the Kuskokwim Delta today. Light rain, possibly
mixed with snow will spread over the Delta this morning, then
quickly exit the area. This feature will largely miss the
remainder of the mainland. A frontal boundary currently over the
Bering Sea will slowly move ashore Sunday morning and linger
through Monday, solely over the Kuskokwim Delta. Precipitation
will be a mix of rain and snow as southerly flow keeps the near
surface warm, but colder air filters in aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low pressure system off Kamchatka continues to squeeze
the surface pressure gradient over the Bering as a high pressure
anchors over the Gulf. The result is a wide section of gale/storm
force winds over the central Bering sea, concurrent with the
frontal boundary bringing rain to the same area. Normally a
stable southerly flow would prevent the strongest winds from
mixing down from aloft, but the warm front is not particularly
strong in this scenario. The St. Paul 12z/31 sounding shows the
mixed layer to around 2000 ft which should allow for winds in
excess of 70 mph to reach the surface through afternoon, roughly
along a corridor from Nikolski through the Pribilof Islands. The
front will stall out over the eastern Bering Sea late tonight
through Monday, continuing areas of rain and southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Sunday night through Friday)...

A strong blocking ridge will be the dominant feature for the first
week of the new year, starting out over the Gulf of Alaska and
eastern Alaska mainland early next week then becoming re-centered
farther west for the latter half of next week. This will result
in a prolonged period of dry weather over Southcentral Alaska and
Kodiak Island. Sitting right under the ridge temps will be near or
a bit above normal. Initially, stability does not look very
favorable for fog, but surface based inversions will steepen with
time, so would expect areas of fog to develop early to late next
week.

Southwest Alaska will start out the week on the western periphery
of the upper ridge with a long southerly fetch of warm and moist
air pointed right at the Western Capes and Kuskokwim Delta coast.
Temps look like they will be warm enough to produce primarily
rain. An upper level short-wave will then track over top of the
ridge Tuesday night advecting precip inland across interior
Southwest Alaska and into the Interior. Ridging will rapidly build
in behind the short-wave which will finally dry out the region.

Meanwhile, an active storm track will persist out west from the
North Pacific to the far western Bering Sea with a steady dose of
gale to storm force winds and precip affecting the Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIgh Wind Warning 185 195
MARINE...Storms 170 173-176 179 181 185
         Gales 155 165 171 172 177 178 180

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JA

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKST SAT DEC 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ST. GEORGE              56.61N 169.60W
12/31/2016  M83.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            THE ST GEORGE ASOS REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 83 MPH AT
            1129 AM

&&

LINGRAM

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.