High Wind Watch 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

511 
WWAK72 PAFC 091358
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

AKZ187-100300-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0003.160310T0900Z-160311T0700Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0003.160310T1200Z-160311T0300Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
458 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 55 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
  INTENSIFY BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR ADAK. WINDS WILL
  PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE CORE OF
  STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST OF ADAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WARNING
  LEVEL GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING NEAR ATKA. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS SITS SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. RIDGING RESIDES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BROAD LOW WITH ONE RIDGE EXTENDING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING. THE EASTERN
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CANADA INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. THIS
SETUP HAS HELPED TO BRING A TONGUE OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE BERING MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. WHEN THIS HAPPENS THE NAM MOVES THE
LOW FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WEAKENS IT. THE EC AND GEM
LAG BEHIND WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THEM. THE
SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION OF THE EC WAS PREFERRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE GULF COAST...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN COOK
INLET THROUGH THIS MORNING. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY HOWEVER WILL
PREVENT MOST OF THIS SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH A FEW
BRIEF FLURRIES MAY STILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE
IS THEN VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IN MOST AREAS. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL GENERALLY ONLY
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND AREA
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING
A RETURN TO RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DISSIPATES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING
THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
BENIGN SHOWERY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS IN PLACE. A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE BERING TONIGHT AS
A GALE FORCE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING AHEAD OF A DEEP NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WHICH WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD...BRINGING
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE EASTERN BERING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE POWERFUL LOW CENTER
PASSING NORTH OF THE CHAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO SET UP
ALONG A CORRIDOR BETWEEN KISKA AND ADAK...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH
WARNING CRITERIA NEAR ADAK BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WATCH IN
THE COMING FORECAST PACKAGES AS SMALLER SCALE DETAILS COME INTO
BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN POLAR JET
TRANSITIONING FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THEN THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN
ALASKA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND IN THE BERING SEA AS THE STORM TRACK DIVES SOUTH. BY
THE WEEKEND...THE GULF LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH...BRINGING
IN A PERIOD OF RATHER QUIESCENT WEATHER TO SOUTHCENTRAL...AN THIS
MAY LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE REBUILDS
AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAM STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
REGION. IN OTHER WORDS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE
MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 173 174 175 176 177 178 351 352 411 412 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA