Gale Warning 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

967 
FZAK61 PAFC 100000
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101400-
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 MB LOW NEAR 54N 146W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
ON THU. A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS WILL CROSS THE GULF THROUGH
FRI.

$$

PKZ351-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR SITKA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS IS RESULTING IN
SOUTH TO EAST FLOW THAT IS BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFTING TO FACILITATE THE
SHOWERS OVER THE COOK INLET REGION AND SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
WESTERN TO NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS. A BROAD FLAT RIDGE
ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TAP FOR THE ALEUTIANS IS JUST
OFF NORTHERN JAPAN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TRACKING THE
LOW FROM JUST OFF NORTHERN JAPAN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WRAP AROUND FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FOCUS OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE NORTHWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND TRACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...BRINGING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
RAIN TO THE GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SIT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE
JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURES OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INLAND...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST PLACES WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS RISING ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL
EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BENIGN CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT...MAINLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AREA.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING BERING SEA LOW THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA HOWEVER...COULD
EXPERIENCE A STEADIER RAIN AND SNOW MIX AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE BERING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A GALE FORCE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING AHEAD OF
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD...BRINGING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE CHAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SET
UP ALONG A CORRIDOR BETWEEN KISKA AND ADAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GUSTY WINDS
REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE CORE OF HIGH WINDS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT FROM ATKA EAST
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN...AND THE GENERAL LOW
IMPACT NATURE OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED. BEGINNING
THURSDAY EVENING...THE MAIN POLAR JET WILL BE PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATED COASTLINE...KEEPING THE
MAIN STORM TRACK SOUTH OF ALASKA. THE STRONG BERING LOW WILL BE
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A ROTATING LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST BY FRIDAY...SPREADING INLAND CLOUDS
AND COASTAL PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BY THE
WEEKEND...LEAVING LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. BY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL DRIFT EAST...BUT WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
WILL PERSIST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LARGELY RELEGATED TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE BERING SEA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 187.
MARINE...STORMS 176 177 178 413. GALES 155 165 170 171 172 173 174
175 179 352 411 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA