High Wind Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

250 
WWAK72 PAFC 060056
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
356 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

AKZ185-061400-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0001.160106T1500Z-160107T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0001.160106T1400Z-160106T2300Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
356 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM AKST WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
  INCREASING THE WINDS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. BY EARLY
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
  MOVES NORTH.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ187-061400-
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.A.0002.160107T0300Z-160107T1500Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
356 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM ADAK WEST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...FROM ADAK WEST.

* WIND...WEST 45 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. 

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE AREA FOR A
WEEK NOW PERSISTS OVER THE MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SEA OF OKHOTSK ALSO REMAINS
STATIONARY...WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THIS SETUP
IS ALLOWING FOR FREQUENT INCURSIONS OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. SUBTROPICAL WARM AIR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SIBERIAN COLD AIR IS CAUSING THE JET OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TO REMAIN HYPERACTIVE...DRIVING STORM AFTER
STORM EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AS OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST WEEK...EACH SYSTEM (INCLUDING THE CURRENT SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE ALASKA PENINSULA) HAS APPROACHED THE STEADFAST BLOCKING RIDGE
AND HAS MADE A SHARP LEFT TURN TO THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY ENDING UP
IN THE EASTERN BERING.

WARM LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS LARGELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE SIDES OF THE VARIOUS RANGES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
DOWNSLOPING LARGELY KEEPS AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE DRY. MOST
OBSERVATION STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ARE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AS UNIMPEDED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. GUSTY WINDS ARE GENERALLY SURROUNDING
THE AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKAN RANGES...COOK INLET...AND THE
AREAS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. OVER THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...COLD AIR IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS OF THE BERING ARE KEEPING A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME IN
PLACE...WITH ONLY WEAK FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW QUICKLY NORTHWEST ALONG AN EXISTING WEATHER
FRONT JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THIS FRONT MOVES INLAND AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE NOW IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS WELL
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN RUSSIA THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES EMERGE BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IN A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER
PATTERN BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN TOWARDS THE NORTH SLOPE. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS IN
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
INDUCE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUE TO STALL OUT AS WE HEAD INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN...SNOW AND POSSIBLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN)
SPILL OVER FROM THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL
HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRIER CONDITIONS. WHILE THE INLAND AREAS ALONG THE
EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PORTAGE
VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN PASS WITH THIS FRONT. THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PERSISTING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL HOLD THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND UNDER THE WARM
MOIST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE IN THIS WARM MOIST PATTERN WILL REMAIN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INLAND IN BRISTOL BAY
LATE TUESDAY AS A LOW FORMING OFF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BECOMES THE
MAIN LOW AND MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND OF BRISTOL BAY COLDER AIR SWEEPS BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE BACK TO SNOW THOUGH MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL END AS A STRONG STORM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE INCREASE EXPECTED IN THIS
REGION. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW AND
THUS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT WARM AIR AND PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE LAST WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE
STORM TRACK IS GOING TO KEEP MODERATE OR PERHAPS EVEN STRONG
INTENSITY STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING. THE BERING/ALEUTIAN BASIN WILL BEAR
THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SEE MULTIPLE BUT RELATIVELY MINOR ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY RAIN) DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
STAYING MAINLY LONG THE COAST. FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SMALL BUT
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE FROM LAST WEEKS PATTERN IS THAT THE JET
STREAM MOVING UP INTO THE STATE IS GOING TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN IT WAS LAST WEEK (WHEN IT WAS NEARLY FROM THE
DUE SOUTH). THIS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF COOK INLET...KEEPING THE MAIN POPULATION CENTERS
DRIER AND A BIT COOLER. THE GULF COAST...WHICH HAS SEEN A
RELENTLESS SEQUENCE OF STORMS LATELY...WILL CATCH A BREAK FOR A
FEW DAYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BEFORE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND.

WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THEY
DISAGREE ON SOME SUBSTANTIAL TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON
SOME MAJOR SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA. THE GFS BRINGS SEVERAL STRONG STORMS
THROUGH THE AKPEN/SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME-FRAME...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND DOES NOT EVEN AGREE WITH THE GFS ON
THE NUMBER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS POINT NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING
LEVELS OF WIND OR PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 174 175 177.
 GALE WARNING 119 120 125 150 155 170 171 172 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...AD