Gale Warning 838, NWS Anchorage, AK

454 
FZAK52 PAFC 190032
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191400-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 951 MB LOW 140 NM NORTH OF ATKA MOVES TO 160 NM WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 970 MB MON AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO NEAR PILOT POINT AT
984 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-191400-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
35 FT SUBSIDING TO 28 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-191400-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND
35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 38 FT SUBSIDING
TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-191400-
BRISTOL BAY-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-191400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-191400-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-191400-
UNALASKA BAY-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-191400-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
33 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-191400-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-191400-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 37 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
34 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-191400-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-191400-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
30 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-191400-
ADAK TO KISKA-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...26 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-191400-
KISKA TO ATTU-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-191400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-191400-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-191400-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-191400-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
332 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Sat Dec 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a negatively tilted trough over southern Alaska moving
slowly towards the northeast. Precipitation with this feature is
diminishing from south to north as the trough axis passes. There
is a strong upper low over the central Aleutians vertically
stacked with a 942 mb surface low. Very strong winds are
associated with this low. There is a 200+ kt jet to the south of
the Aleutians. In the left front exit of the jet there is a triple
point low on the cusp of forming over the eastern Aleutians. In
between the Alaska trough and the Aleutian low there is a
transient short wave ridge over the Alaska Peninsula and eastern
Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement. There are some
differences in the handling of a surface low in the Gulf Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, with the Nam appearing to be the
outlier with a central low further east. The Nam is much further
east than the other models with a low in the Gulf on Monday.
Further west, the Canadian has differences strait out of the gate
with the low near the central Aleutians this evening and tonight,
having the low much further east. The GFS/ECMWF were preferred.
Forecast confidence is near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through Sunday
morning. North winds are expected to increase Sunday afternoon as
a strong low moves into the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As the current system continues to move across Southcentral,
sheltered inland areas have seen fog develop this afternoon as the
warmer, more moist air mass moves over the much colder land
surfaces. This looks to be a common theme for the next couple of
days especially when any partial clearing can take place in these
inland locations. Occasionally, fog may become widespread and dense
especially in the most sheltered locations throughout the region
where winds are light.

The upper trough will slowly exit to the north tonight with
precip rapidly tapering off most areas by midnight. Low-level
flow will shift around to the north and strengthen out ahead of a
storm-force front moving in from the Aleutians and North Pacific
late tonight through Sunday. A strong jet stream combined with
cold air moving in behind this will lead to development and
deepening of a triple-point low over the northwest Gulf on
Sunday. Precipitation will rapidly move northward Sunday,
initially affecting the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island. The strong
offshore flow out ahead of it will keep the remainder of the area
dry and will also limit snow totals across the interior Western
Prince William Sound zone, including Turnagain Pass and Alyeska.
As the low weakens Sunday night there is a chance of light snow
across the Cook Inlet region as moisture advects over the
mountains and a separate shortwave trough moves up from the south.

Another post-frontal low develops over the western Gulf of Alaska
during the day on Monday. This will help to focus precipitation in
what will already be an unstable convective environment. For this
reason, isolated lightning strikes will be possible across much of
the Gulf on the south side of this low center with the stronger
showers. Strong storm-force winds with near-hurricane-force gusts
will also be possible just south of the surface low track in
conjunction with a strong jet streak.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak ridging will allow for patchy fog and stratus to continue
mainly to inland areas of the Southwest Mainland this evening.
This will then be quickly scoured out overnight as the front
moving through the Eastern Bering makes landfall. This front will
bring gusty east winds to much of Bristol Bay on Sunday,
especially to areas along the Aleutian and Alaskan Ranges which
will receive the strongest winds. Along with winds, a few inches
of accumulating snow will fall over Western Bristol Bay, in
particular from Dillingham north and west where some areas of
blowing snow are possible with gusty east winds. This front will
then weaken over the area Sunday evening, leaving residual snow
showers primarily to Bristol Bay into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of the focus over the Bering Sea will center around the
developing hurricane force low approaching the Central Aleutians.
Cold air advection and pressure ridges around the western edge of
this low will bring west wind gusts up to 90 mph to the Adak and
Atka areas overnight tonight before diminishing during the day
Sunday. This low will weaken as it approaches the Eastern
Aleutians Sunday, bringing strong westerly winds from Dutch Harbor
into the AK pen through Monday morning. Behind this low, rain and
snow will spread throughout much of the Western Bering/Aleutians
into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Mon night through Sat...

A complex area of low pressure over the extreme eastern Bering, Akpen
and western Gulf of AK Mon night will consolidate over the
northern Gulf Tue into Wed. While a ridge of high pressure builds
over the Bering, the Gulf low will drift and weaken before
dissipating Sat. The Bering high moves over mainland Ak and beyond
during this period, allowing a resumption of eastward moving
systems across the Bering. A second low will develop Tue night
east of Kamchatka, and move near Cold Bay by early Sat before
crossing into the northern Gulf. A third low will develop near
Kamchatka on Sat before making its way across the Bering.

The initial Gulf low will bring accumulating snow to coastal
mountains and the Aleutian Range, diminishing through Sat as the
low weakens. The second low will bring wind and mainly rain to
the eastern half of the Aleutian chain, and the Akpen through the
week. The final low will bring wind to the western Bering and
Aleutians with some rain and snow on Sat.

The run to run consistency demonstrated by the models remains an
issue. Confidence is low to moderate with the timing of the lows,
as well as the location of precipitation. The forecast utilized
the WPC ensemble solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187. MARINE...Hurricane Force Warning...174
176 177  Storm Warning...119 120 130 131 132 138 139 170 172 173
175 178 Gale Warning...125 127 128 136 137 140 141 150 155 160
165 171 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1018 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ADAK STATION            51.84N 176.64W
12/17/2016  M90 MPH                             AK   C-MAN STATION

            HIGHEST WIND GUST OF THE STORM SO FAR

1236 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST NIKOLSKI                52.96N 168.82W
12/17/2016  M75 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            HIGHEST GUST OF THE STORM

&&

JPW