Gale Warning 829, NWS Anchorage, AK

278 
FZAK51 PAFC 160009
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161330-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WEAKENS THROUGH FRI. A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST GULF FRI
AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND INCREASING
TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161330-
PORT VALDEZ-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161330-
VALDEZ ARM-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 36 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161330-
CHINIAK BAY-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161330-
MARMOT BAY-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW...MIXING
WITH RAIN TOWARD MORNING S OF ANCHOR POINT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-161330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
309 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The rather stable pattern over mainland Alaska is giving way to a
pattern change which will herald a more active and warmer weather
pattern which will continue into next week. The upper level ridge
is highly amplified over the mainland part of the state with the
trough extending out of eastern Russia and over the Pribilof
Islands. This is leaving southwest mainland Alaska under a tight
southerly flow which is rapidly warming temperatures today. The
surface low in the western Bering Sea, which is associated with
the front moving into southwest Alaska, is weakening rapidly as a
developing low moves toward the western Aleutian Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models appear to be handling the pattern shift well with the two
lows moving through the Bering Sea over the next few days. On
Saturday the models really break down over the Aleutians through Bering
Sea and eastward into the Gulf of Alaska. While models all seem to
know there will be a strong low in the central to eastern
Aleutians, the strength of the low varies by 25 to 30 mb. More
significantly, the track and way the low does or does not
elongate, Will have a large impact on the weather from the
eastern Aleutians through Southcentral Alaska this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into Thursday
afternoon. Conditions should drop to MVFR Thursday afternoon with
the arrival of snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A stout but narrow ridge residing over Southcentral will push
slowly east overnight. Mid-level clouds tonight will largely
prevent much in the way of fog from forming, but it can not be
totally ruled out, especially later tonight near Anchorage and
also near Western Prince William Sound. The mid-level cloud deck
will slowly lower through the day on Thursday, with snow quickly
developing Thursday into Thursday night from south to north ahead
of a sharp mid-level disturbance. Confidence is fairly high in
widespread light snow occurring, but there is disagreement in snow
amounts, with generally 1 to 2 inches expected for many of the
population centers of the Cook Inlet region. Highest amounts are
expected along south-to west-facing slopes.

Temperatures will continue to warm from Thursday through much of
the overnight Friday as a warmer and more moist system follows
immediately on the heels of the first. This will begin to
introduce precipitation-type concerns to the forecast, especially
as some models now predict a thin near-surface above-freezing
layer to develop along the western slopes of the Kenai and Chugach
ranges from the Western Kenai to Anchorage and the Mat-Su valleys.
It is not out of the question that some light freezing rain or
even light rain could occur from Homer north through the Knik Arm
region, including Anchorage, Friday into Friday night.
Any rain or freezing rain would then turn back to snow before
ending Saturday morning as colder air returns to the region.
Meanwhile, toward the Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound, light
to occasionally moderate to snow is expected for Friday night into
the first half of Saturday resulting in relatively hefty snow
amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Warmer air has already begun to displace the cold air mass that
has been entrenched across the region for the past couple of
weeks. Most locations have warmed up to the freezing mark with
just some locations in the Kuskokwim Valley holding onto colder
temperatures. These warmer temperatures should remain nearly
constant tonight under ample cloud cover but a cooling trend
should begin to take place Friday night as colder air aloft
advects from the west as a strong area of low pressure spins in
the central Bering Sea. Some snow and rain showers are possible
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas tonight as an
upper level trough remains situated over the eastern Bering Sea
and a weak wave is expected to quickly move toward the west coast
of Alaska. As the trough moves inland on Thursday and Friday,
additional showers are anticipated but should be fairly widespread
and difficult to nail down the exact locations of these showers.
Fog could also be an issue tonight as the surface inversion
strengthens from the warm air advection and a push a moisture
across the region. Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable
location for fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The active weather pattern across the Bering Sea will continue
through the end of the week. First off, the low currently over the
northwestern Bering Sea has weakened significantly during the day
as it has drifted northward toward the Russian coastline. This low
is expected to continue to fall apart over the next 24 hours
before fully dissipating. Second, a strong area of low pressure
over the northwest Pacific Ocean (southwest of Shemya) will
continue to deepened as it crosses into the Bering Sea late
Thursday morning. The initial front will quickly spread eastward
across the Bering Sea and produce gale to storm force winds with
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. The biggest impacts from
the low will be as cold air from Russia wraps around the low
pressure system Thursday afternoon. Stronger winds off the surface
will begin to mix down over the western Aleutians with winds of 60
to 70 mph likely over Shemya. There is the potential for gusts to
reach 75 to 80 mph but only for several hours as the low begins to
jog north Thursday night. In addition, very impressive sea heights
of 45 to 50 ft are expected as a very favorable fetch and low
level jet will provide favorable conditions for seas to build. The
highest seas are expected over thew Western Aleutians and then the
Pacific side of the Aleutian Chain. Sea of 30 to 40 ft will be
likely over the eastern half of the Bering Sea on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri night through wed)...
A pattern change remains on track beginning this weekend. An
approaching zonal jet will slam into the the ridge over mainland
AK on Sat, causing the ridge to weaken and move rapidly east.
While this is happening, a stacked low pressure system dissipates
over the northwest Bering. This low will transfer energy to a new
north Pacific low that moves with the jet along the Alaska
Peninsula to the Gulf of AK Sun into Mon. The collapse of the
blocking ridge will allow several systems associated with the
zonal jet to rapidly move along the AKpen and into the Gulf of
Alaska through mid week.

This will bring a moderating trend to temperatures to all of our
area of responsibility, as well as increased precipitation
chances, especially along the coastlines. Trends suggest there may
be ample snow opportunities inland by early next week as well.

For the Bering specifically, the main impacts will be strong
winds given the decent jet energy with the low pressure systems
and their associated fronts.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 178.
 Storm Warning 170 173 174 175 176 177 179.
 Gale Warning 150 155 165 172 180 181 185.
 Heavy Frz Spray 127.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DS