Gale Warning 776, NWS Anchorage, AK

811 
FZAK61 PAFC 152352
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
252 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-161415-
252 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WEAKENS THROUGH FRI. A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST GULF FRI
AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-161415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
252 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 36 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-161415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
252 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 TO 39 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.

$$

938 
FZAK61 PAFC 161248
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170145-
348 AM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF 
AND WEAKENS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT ENTERS 
THE SOUTHWEST GULF SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-170145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
348 AM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-170145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
348 AM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT.

$$

814 
FZAK61 PAFC 170036
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171515-
336 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WEAKENS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF SAT NIGHT. A 964 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
SUN MORNING AT 58N 151W AND DRIFTS TO 59N 151W SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-171515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
336 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 25 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-171515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
336 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING BECOMING SE WIND 20 TO
35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 TO 28 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT.

$$

218 
FZAK61 PAFC 170334
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
634 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171615-
634 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WEAKENS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF SAT NIGHT. A 964 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
SUN MORNING AT 58N 151W AND DRIFTS TO 59N 151W SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-171615-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
634 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 25 TO
35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 25 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-171615-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
634 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING BECOMING SE WIND 20 TO
35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 TO 28 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT.

$$

970 
FZAK61 PAFC 171249
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180200-
349 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT. A 964 MB LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT SUN MORNING AT 57N 153W...MOVES TO 59N
150W AT 959 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 60N 146W AT 968 MB
LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
349 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 35 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
349 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT BUILDING TO 
22 TO 29 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 TO 33 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.

$$

036 
FZAK61 PAFC 171823 AAA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
923 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

UPDATED ZONE 351

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180730-
923 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT. A 964 MB LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT SUN MORNING AT 57N 153W...MOVES TO 59N
150W AT 959 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 60N 146W AT 968 MB
LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-180730-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
923 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 35 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-180730-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
923 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT BUILDING TO 
22 TO 29 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 TO 33 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 TO 30 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.

$$

714 
FZAK61 PAFC 180033
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181500-
333 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT. A 964 MB LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT SUN MORNING AT 58N 153W...MOVES TO 60N
146W AT 971 MB SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR 60N 146W LATE SUN
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
333 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
TO 16 FT BUILDING TO 16 TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 TO 34 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
333 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT BUILDING TO 21 TO 27 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 26 TO 32 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 28 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 27 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 TO 29 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The rather stable pattern over mainland Alaska is giving way to a
pattern change which will herald a more active and warmer weather
pattern which will continue into next week. The upper level ridge
is highly amplified over the mainland part of the state with the
trough extending out of eastern Russia and over the Pribilof
Islands. This is leaving southwest mainland Alaska under a tight
southerly flow which is rapidly warming temperatures today. The
surface low in the western Bering Sea, which is associated with
the front moving into southwest Alaska, is weakening rapidly as a
developing low moves toward the western Aleutian Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models appear to be handling the pattern shift well with the two
lows moving through the Bering Sea over the next few days. On
Saturday the models really break down over the Aleutians through Bering
Sea and eastward into the Gulf of Alaska. While models all seem to
know there will be a strong low in the central to eastern
Aleutians, the strength of the low varies by 25 to 30 mb. More
significantly, the track and way the low does or does not
elongate, Will have a large impact on the weather from the
eastern Aleutians through Southcentral Alaska this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into Thursday
afternoon. Conditions should drop to MVFR Thursday afternoon with
the arrival of snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A stout but narrow ridge residing over Southcentral will push
slowly east overnight. Mid-level clouds tonight will largely
prevent much in the way of fog from forming, but it can not be
totally ruled out, especially later tonight near Anchorage and
also near Western Prince William Sound. The mid-level cloud deck
will slowly lower through the day on Thursday, with snow quickly
developing Thursday into Thursday night from south to north ahead
of a sharp mid-level disturbance. Confidence is fairly high in
widespread light snow occurring, but there is disagreement in snow
amounts, with generally 1 to 2 inches expected for many of the
population centers of the Cook Inlet region. Highest amounts are
expected along south-to west-facing slopes.

Temperatures will continue to warm from Thursday through much of
the overnight Friday as a warmer and more moist system follows
immediately on the heels of the first. This will begin to
introduce precipitation-type concerns to the forecast, especially
as some models now predict a thin near-surface above-freezing
layer to develop along the western slopes of the Kenai and Chugach
ranges from the Western Kenai to Anchorage and the Mat-Su valleys.
It is not out of the question that some light freezing rain or
even light rain could occur from Homer north through the Knik Arm
region, including Anchorage, Friday into Friday night.
Any rain or freezing rain would then turn back to snow before
ending Saturday morning as colder air returns to the region.
Meanwhile, toward the Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound, light
to occasionally moderate to snow is expected for Friday night into
the first half of Saturday resulting in relatively hefty snow
amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Warmer air has already begun to displace the cold air mass that
has been entrenched across the region for the past couple of
weeks. Most locations have warmed up to the freezing mark with
just some locations in the Kuskokwim Valley holding onto colder
temperatures. These warmer temperatures should remain nearly
constant tonight under ample cloud cover but a cooling trend
should begin to take place Friday night as colder air aloft
advects from the west as a strong area of low pressure spins in
the central Bering Sea. Some snow and rain showers are possible
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas tonight as an
upper level trough remains situated over the eastern Bering Sea
and a weak wave is expected to quickly move toward the west coast
of Alaska. As the trough moves inland on Thursday and Friday,
additional showers are anticipated but should be fairly widespread
and difficult to nail down the exact locations of these showers.
Fog could also be an issue tonight as the surface inversion
strengthens from the warm air advection and a push a moisture
across the region. Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable
location for fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The active weather pattern across the Bering Sea will continue
through the end of the week. First off, the low currently over the
northwestern Bering Sea has weakened significantly during the day
as it has drifted northward toward the Russian coastline. This low
is expected to continue to fall apart over the next 24 hours
before fully dissipating. Second, a strong area of low pressure
over the northwest Pacific Ocean (southwest of Shemya) will
continue to deepened as it crosses into the Bering Sea late
Thursday morning. The initial front will quickly spread eastward
across the Bering Sea and produce gale to storm force winds with
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. The biggest impacts from
the low will be as cold air from Russia wraps around the low
pressure system Thursday afternoon. Stronger winds off the surface
will begin to mix down over the western Aleutians with winds of 60
to 70 mph likely over Shemya. There is the potential for gusts to
reach 75 to 80 mph but only for several hours as the low begins to
jog north Thursday night. In addition, very impressive sea heights
of 45 to 50 ft are expected as a very favorable fetch and low
level jet will provide favorable conditions for seas to build. The
highest seas are expected over thew Western Aleutians and then the
Pacific side of the Aleutian Chain. Sea of 30 to 40 ft will be
likely over the eastern half of the Bering Sea on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri night through wed)...
A pattern change remains on track beginning this weekend. An
approaching zonal jet will slam into the the ridge over mainland
AK on Sat, causing the ridge to weaken and move rapidly east.
While this is happening, a stacked low pressure system dissipates
over the northwest Bering. This low will transfer energy to a new
north Pacific low that moves with the jet along the Alaska
Peninsula to the Gulf of AK Sun into Mon. The collapse of the
blocking ridge will allow several systems associated with the
zonal jet to rapidly move along the AKpen and into the Gulf of
Alaska through mid week.

This will bring a moderating trend to temperatures to all of our
area of responsibility, as well as increased precipitation
chances, especially along the coastlines. Trends suggest there may
be ample snow opportunities inland by early next week as well.

For the Bering specifically, the main impacts will be strong
winds given the decent jet energy with the low pressure systems
and their associated fronts.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 178.
 Storm Warning 170 173 174 175 176 177 179.
 Gale Warning 150 155 165 172 180 181 185.
 Heavy Frz Spray 127.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DS