Gale Warning 823, NWS Anchorage, AK

351 
FZAK52 PAFC 131233
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140115-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 955 MB LOW 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 250 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA AT 965 MB TUE NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHWEST
BERING WED NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING TUE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST EARLY WED MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT 952 MB WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-140115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-140115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 16 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-140115-
BRISTOL BAY-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-140115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ170-140115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ171-140115-
UNALASKA BAY-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-140115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ173-140115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-140115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-140115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ176-140115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-140115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 41 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ178-140115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT BERING SIDE...27 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...W WIND 65 KT. SEAS 42 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-140115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ180-140115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-140115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY 
FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ185-140115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
333 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 45 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

241 
FZAK52 PAFC 140056
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141345-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 956 MB LOW 125 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 375 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 972 MB WED
AFTERNOON...THEN IS ABSORBED. A 950 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WED EVENING MOVES TO 175 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 949 MB
THU AFTERNOON. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER THE
EASTERN BERING DISSIPATES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WED.

$$

PKZ150-141345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 15 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141345-
BRISTOL BAY-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141345-
UNALASKA BAY-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 40 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 46 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 41 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA W...SE WIND 45 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PAC SIDE...SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 65 KT. SEAS 41 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 36 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 13
FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
356 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SE WIND 40 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

364 
FZAK52 PAFC 141233
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150200-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 964 MB LOW 225 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA DISSIPATES NEAR THE EASTERN
SIBERIAN COAST TONIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 175 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 948 MB TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 320 NM WEST
OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND AT 954 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-150200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 31 FT.

$$

PKZ155-150200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 36 FT.

$$

PKZ160-150200-
BRISTOL BAY-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ165-150200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ170-150200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ171-150200-
UNALASKA BAY-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-150200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 34 FT.

$$

PKZ173-150200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ174-150200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ175-150200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-150200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 44 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 37 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ177-150200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 60 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 33 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 37 FT BUILDING TO 51 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 47 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-150200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 18 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 65 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO
55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING SIDE...SEAS 26 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 44 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 38 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-150200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ180-150200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-150200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-150200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
333 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKST Mon Dec 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure has brought clear and cold temperatures to much of
the southern Mainland with generally winds throughout. The one
exception to this is dense fog and very low stratus that
developed over northern Cook Inlet and Knik Arm overnight as
strong stability developed over the only partially ice covered
Inlet. Gap wind prone areas of Prince William Sound also continue
to see gusty offshore winds due to a persistent pressure gradient.
Over the eastern Bering a pattern change is beginning to develop
as the persistent high pressure and northerly flow has given way
to southerly flow ahead of an approaching front. This front is
bringing rain and snow along with gusty southerly winds from the
eastern Aleutians northward into the Pribilof Islands as it tracks
eastward towards the southwest coast. Just west of this front a very
active pattern over the western Bering continues as a developing
storm force low is surging northward into the central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptic model agreement remains very good into Tuesday with high
pressure dominating over much of the Mainland. As a result the
higher resolution NAM and ARW were used for minor updates over the
Gulf and southcentral. The most significant of these updates was
regarding the fog/stratus in northern Cook Inlet which only the
WRF-ARW initialized reasonably well with, and was used heavily
for the short term forecast. Over the western Bering the NAM
continues to be a weak outlier, but otherwise model consensus in
positioning has improved significantly in the last 24 hours. The
models all appear to be catching up to the slightly faster and
deeper GFS solution, which was used once again for the morning
updates to increase winds over the western Aleutians/Bering.
Overall forecast confidence remains good with the exception of
the timing and density of Cook Inlet stratus and fog where
confidence is much lower.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Dense fog and very low stratus will bring VLIFR conditions
at times to the airport through late this morning. Afterwards fog
and stratus will likely continue over northern Cook Inlet
throughout the day today, impacting approaches from the west. Low
stratus and possibly dense fog will then return to the terminal
area after 6z tonight. Overall confidence in the exact timing and
conditions in the TAF is low due to poor agreement from much of
the guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main forecast challenge remains fog coverage, particularly
along Cook Inlet. While the sounding this morning indicates that
the atmosphere is dry, enough moisture is still available to
support shallow fog along the inlet. Meanwhile, across much of
mainland Southcentral, temperatures continue to plummet under
clear skies and fairly light winds. There still remains a
pressure gradient between the high over the mainland and general
low pressure in the north Pacific. However, offshore gap winds
are much weaker tonight and are expected to continue to slowly
diminish. The main forecast challenge remains the development of
fog during each night in the short term. Currently, models
indicate slightly less favorable conditions for fog development
overnight Monday night, with wind shear present in the boundary
layer. However, less dense fog is still expected to form over
northern portions of Cook Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weather pattern continues to shift to a more active pattern,
as a front over the Eastern Bering begins to push inland over the
Southwest mainland today. This system will bring the next round of
precipitation to the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska today,
along with some gusty winds along the coast and Alaska Peninsula
as the weakening front passes. Precipitation will remain mostly
snow over the inland areas. There is the potential for a
rain/snow mix over the Bristol Bay coast with the slightly warming
southerly flow, as well as a transition to mostly rain over the
Alaska Peninsula. New snow accumulations are expected between 1 to
2 inches mainly along the Kuskokwim Coast, but will need to be
monitored as models are still struggling with the dynamics of this
system. Models are also trending toward warmer solutions which
could bring a change from snow to rain along the coast sooner than
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The highest impacts through Tuesday surrounds the storm system
moving a front into the western half of the Aleutian Chain today.
Storm force winds are expected develop along the front this
morning across the Western and Central Aleutians with wind
direction along the front out of the east then veering to the
south behind the front. Winds also increase to storms across the
western waters with rain spreading north across the Bering. The
low center nears Shemya this evening and deepens on it's northward
track which keeps storm force winds through late tonight. Winds
taper to gales by Tuesday with a directional shift to the south
and west as the low center lifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri through Tue)...

A shift in the upper air pattern will be underway Tuesday night
and Wednesday as a high latitude blocking high over Alaska weakens
as a series of Bering Sea storms send energetic waves through the
ridge late week into the weekend. The first of these storms will
already be slowly weakening across the Western Bering Sea with the
associated remnant trough axis moving through Southcentral by
Thursday. Precipitation with this feature will be rather
disorganized as the weakened trough moves through the ridge axis.
However, a stronger storm force low moving into the Western Bering
Sea Thursday will send a much stronger occluded front into
Southern Alaska, spreading widespread precipitation (rain and
snow) across the southern mainland Friday and Saturday.
Thereafter, uncertainty grows with the exact storm track as the
baroclinic zone shifts south and another strong NPAC low moves
toward the Gulf of Alaska. By this time the forecast favors a
broad WPC ensemble blend approach.

Bottom line...the rather stagnant weather pattern will be
changing dramatically mid week and beyond, starting in the Bering
then moving east. Expect warming temperatures to near if not above
normal along with threats for snow and rain by Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 173 174 175 176 177 178.
         Gale 155 165 170 172 179 180 181 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 127.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA