Gale Warning 796, NWS Anchorage, AK

891 
FZAK52 PAFC 011250
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020145-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1008 MB LOW 240 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 260 NM WEST OF
SAINT PAUL AT 1006 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO 120 NM NORTH OF COLD
BAY AT 1018 MB LATE FRI NIGHT. A FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-020145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020145-
BRISTOL BAY-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-020145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 35 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 10
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020145-
UNALASKA BAY-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-020145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ185-020145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 AM AKST Wed Nov 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low over the eastern Gulf is falling apart as it moves inland
near Yakutat. As it exits so does much of the cloud cover and snow
for Southcentral Alaska. However, in the more stable environment,
some areas of low level stratus have formed, especially with
places near water like around Cook Inlet. Out west another low
over the Central Aleutians is tracking east across the islands.
Its associated front is pushing through the Alaska Peninsula
towards the Bristol Bay area. This setup is also bringing cold air
to the other areas around the southwest.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement with the main synoptic features.
There are however some issues with some of the smaller scales
impacts like how much snow will fall around Southcentral Alaska
Wednesday night into Thursday. The higher resolution models were
chosen to help with these decisions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There is uncertainty as to when the approaching front will
make it over Anchorage. This will impact when ceilings will fall
as well as visibility. It looks to be a more gradual decline for
ceilings with intermittent worse conditions, but there is
uncertainty in when these changes will happen. However, the snow
should be light and conditions should stay above IFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A triple point low develops this afternoon along the broad warm
occluded front(frontal trough) which extends southeast across the
Gulf. The frontal trough heads north ahead of the triple point low
bringing snow to the northern Gulf and Kenai Peninsula by
afternoon. Some light snow will make it over the Chugach mountains
this afternoon into the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska and Western
Susitna Valleys. Snow should become mixed with rain along the
coasts by early evening, but will stay cold enough for snow
elsewhere. Storm force winds are expected to develop along the
Barren island marine zones this afternoon with gales elsewhere
ahead of the north moving front and triple point. There could be
some brief blowing snow issues in the Cordova area late this
afternoon before the snow mixes with rain. Some brief periods of
blowing snow are also possible through Portage Valley. Things
could get a little more interesting across the Anchorage Bowl
tonight as the triple point moves near eastern Kenai Pen and the
cross barrier flow diminishes. Probably will see measurable
snowfall, though with model spread on the low position, there is
still a fair amount of uncertainty on snow amounts. Mid level
southerly flow across the Susitna Valley developing tonight
should bring a fair amount of snow (sub-advisory) to the northern
Susitna Valley tonight through Thursday morning. The threat of
snow inland from the Anchorage Bowl north continues into Thursday
night with a mix along the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The front moving across the Alaska Peninsula this morning will
begin to pivot, and take up residence along the Aleutian and
Alaska Ranges through Thu night before dissipating on Fri. During
this time light snow will fall initially south of King Salmon
today, and then along the Aleutian and Alaska Ranges through Thu
night, ending on Fri. Light snow from this feature will ultimately
affect much of the Bristol Bay zone and Kuskokwim Valley through
the period. While this is happening, cold air and breezy
conditions will affect the Kuskokwim Delta, with advisory level
wind chills this morning and Thu morning. Some weak waves will
then bring some snow showers to the Southwest AK coast on Fri. A
tightening pressure gradient will also develop across the Alaska
Peninsula Thu through Fri with strong winds, especially through
channeled terrain and into marine areas south of the Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low moving rapidly along the Aleutians will spread some rain
and snow along the islands and southern Bering today. Beginning
tonight strong cold advection will sweep across the Bering on
west to northwest flow. This will bring snow showers to the entire
area. On Fri a strong front from a Kamchatka low will bring
significant warming to the western Aleutians with snow changing
to rain as it begins its traverse of the Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri through Tue)...
Beyond the late week snow threat, be prepared for the coldest
temperatures of the season this weekend. As the afore mentioned
low moves toward SE AK, some more energy will dive from the Seward
Peninsula into the base of the longwave trough over the Gulf. Then
a ridge building over the Bering will serve to reinforce very
cold, dry air moving over the AK Range and into Southcentral AK.
Clouds could help to keep the bottom from falling out, but skies
should clear by Mon allowing for the coldest morning of the 2016
winter.

The cold air will also help to usher in some impressive outflow
winds. Typical places like Thompson Pass, Whittier, and the Copper
River Delta could see very strong gusts. But gaps along the AK
Range will likely see the strongest winds with gusts approaching
hurricane-force as they blast into Shelikof Strait.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory...155.
MARINE...Storm...119 130.
		 Gales...120 125 131 138 139 155 160 165 170 171 172 173
				 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 351 352 411 412
				 413 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray...129 140 160 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...MO