Gale Warning 785, NWS Anchorage, AK

366 
FZAK62 PAFC 241203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250230-
303 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 MB LOW AT 56N 174W MOVES TO 58N 179W LATE TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFTS TO 56N 176W LATE SUN NIGHT AT 976MB. A SECOND 967 MB LOW
NEAR 51N 177W MOVES TO 58N 160W AT 970 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES INLAND NEAR 59N 160W AT 974 MB SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-250230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 TO 33 FT.

$$

PKZ412-250230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW TO NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.

$$

PKZ413-250230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ414-250230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

574 
FZAK62 PAFC 250043
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251345-
343 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 966 MB LOW NEAR 55N 166W BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SUN
MORNING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. A 964 MB LOW NEAR 58N 176W
MOVES TO 55N 180 AT 966 MB SUN AFTERNOON THEN MOVES TO 56N 166W AT
978 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 974 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 60N 172W LATE SUN
NIGHT AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-251345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
343 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 TO 33 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT.

$$

PKZ412-251345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
343 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.

$$

PKZ413-251345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
343 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.

$$

PKZ414-251345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
343 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKST Fri Dec 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a progressive upper level ridge over southwest Alaska and
the eastern Bering Sea. A weak "ridge-topping" trough currently
stretches north-northwest from Kodiak Island to Norton Sound.
There is an upper level low situated south of the central
Aleutians. An associated surface low is deepening and moving to
the north. A strong low associated with a more vigorous upper
trough is located to the southwest of the western Aleutians and
moving rapidly eastward. The low that has been in the Gulf of
Alaska the last few days is now in the southeast Gulf and moving
quickly away to the south-southeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement this morning. There are
some differences with how they handle the merging lows in the
Bering Saturday and Saturday night, but these differences do not
impact the forecast very much.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Areas of fog and low clouds will persist. VFR conditions
are preferred this afternoon with the for retreating back to the
knik arm. The fog should move back in again in the evening, but
will then dissipate tonight as offshore flow increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level trough moves through the Cook Inlet to the MAT-SU
corridor today and into western Canada tonight. A few flurries are
expected with this feature. Areas of fog across the Anchorage Bowl
should diminish by afternoon. There will probably be a little more
fog again tonight, but not as extensive. Pressure gradients begin
to relax today so outflow winds across the eastern Kenai Pen and
North Gulf Coast will diminish.

The focus then shifts to a strong weather front approaching the
southern Gulf late tonight. The front then pushes to the northern
Gulf Sat night. This front will bring widespread gales with some
storms to the marine areas and strong wind/gap flows across the
northern Gulf/eastern Kenai Pen as it heads north. Warming temps
will accompany abundant moisture and will spread north. Precipitation
will start briefly as snow across Kodiak tonight, but then
rapidly shifting to rain. Snow should spread to the Kenai Pen by
Sat afternoon and be heavy at times over the eastern Kenai Pen
through Sat night. Coastal areas however should start to see a mix
of snow and rain. Strong winds coinciding with moderate to heavy
snowfall could produce blizzard conditions in turnagain Pass and
Portage Valley Sat afternoon through Sat night. There is still
some uncertainty as to the degree of warming that will occur in
Portage Valley. Temps in this area could rise into the mid 30s Sat
evening and produce a fairly wet snow or mix and mitigate the
potential for blowing snow. Turnagain pass should safely stay all
snow through Sat night. That said, issued a blizzard watch for
both areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
After some areas of fog this morning, higher clouds in advance of
the Bering front will arrive. Strong warm advection southeast flow
will also begin this afternoon. Some light snow will begin along
the coast tonight and spread inland on Sat. Heaviest snowfall is
expected on the upwind side of mountains north of Togiak and
Manokotak during the day Sat, tapering off Sat night into Sun.
Other areas in the Bristol Bay region will have snow mixing with
rain beginning Sat. Wind and snow northwest of Bethel will produce
areas of blowing snow on Sat, with some reduction in visibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering front will spread rain and gale force winds across the
eastern Bering through tonight before moving across the Alaska
Peninsula and into the mainland on Sat. Some storm force winds are
also expected south of Dutch Harbor today. A second low affects
the western Aleutians later today with rain and some snow showers,
as well as small craft and gale force winds. These conditions will
spread east through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A gale-force front will bring snow to the north Gulf coast on
Sunday while the Cook Inlet region remains downsloped and dry.
Western Prince William Sound will take the brunt of this system.
The same front will be weakening over the southwest, leaving
scattered rain and snow showers in the area. The responsible low
pressure system will encompass most of the Bering, but will have
little in the way of forcing for widespread precipitation. Look
for scattered to numerous showers across the area.

The extended forecast begins late Sunday with the same pattern. A
broad trough sits over the Bering with the jet stream to the south
of the Aleutians. The previous front will hang against the north
Gulf coast, then fall apart while the trough gradually shifts
eastward. Toward the middle of next week, a pattern change is
underway as a developing Kamchatka low looks to amplify the
pattern over the western Bering. This will bring ridging, a front, and
warmer air to the Bering, while the Southcentral will remain in a
weak outflow pattern with clear sky, light winds, and enhanced gap
winds along the coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Watch 125.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 172.
 Gale Warning 120 131 132 136 137 138 141 150 155 160 165 170 171
173 174 175 176 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...MTL