Gale Warning 783, NWS Anchorage, AK

373 
FZAK62 PAFC 230054
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231345-
354 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 MB LOW AT 46N 179E FRI NIGHT MOVES TO 57N 172W AT 967 MB 
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 963 MB LOW NEAR 49N 171E ON FRI NIGHT MOVES
TO 52N 177W AT 978 MB SAT MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH THE PRIBILOF
LOW. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-231345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
354 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
354 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
354 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S UP TO 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
354 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W TO S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

319 
FZAK62 PAFC 231204
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240230-
304 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 MB LOW AT 47N 172W MOVES TO 53N 18W AT 976 MB BY THIS EVENING...THEN
WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING LATE TONIGHT. A
974 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 52N 180 AT 968 MB LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 58N 165W LATE SAT NIGHT AND MAINTAINS
STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
304 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
304 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
304 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
304 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

077 
FZAK62 PAFC 240046
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241400-
346 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW AT 54N 169W AND A SECOND 975 MB LOW AT 55N 179W
MERGE WITH A 967 MB LOW NEAR 48N 166E TO FORM A SINGLE 965 MB 
LOW AT 58N 173W. THIS LOW MOVES TO 60N 172W AT 969 MB BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT DRIVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA 
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.

$$

PKZ412-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ414-241400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Wed Dec 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level trough extends from the large upper level low
over the Arctic Ocean near Wrangell Island through the Brooks
Range to Bristol Bay into the north Pacific. An embedded upper
center is over Kodiak Island. Upper level high pressure has built
across the Aleutians into the north central Bering Sea while
another upper low is now over the northwest Bering Sea. At the
surface the low over Kodiak Island is tracking to the east-southeast
rotating showers into Cook Inlet and the North Gulf Coast. Clearing
skies behind this low over the Bristol Bay region are resulting
in some radiational-cooling fog formation.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement continuing to consolidate
the low along the North Gulf Coast and building the surface ridge
over Western Alaska. The models remain in good agreement dropping
the North Gulf Coast low to the southeast thus continuing to
support the outflow gap winds across the Southcentral region. The
coldest air remains north and west of the Alaska Range. Over the
Aleutians and Bering Sea the upper ridge will build into the
eastern Bering sea as a trough and low move into the western
Bering Sea Thursday night and Friday. The main impact will be the
surface low south of the Aleutians generating strong pre-frontal
wind as it skirts along the Aleutians Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The low near Kodiak is continuing east and will help to
increase the northerly flow which will help mix out the fog and
push it down the northern Inlet. There is still concern with fog
pushing back over the airfield this evening until it is completely
mixed out overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low that is moving into the Western Gulf will help to keep
showers along the north Gulf coast tonight. These showers will
then diminish Thursday as the low pushes off to the southeast.
Ridging will also build in over the area from the west which will
bring outflow winds to Southcentral Alaska. These winds look to be
strong enough to create blowing snow conditions from the
transportable snow that is already on the ground through Thompson
Pass Thursday morning into Friday. It is possible that small areas
through the pass could have visibilities drop below one mile.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and Fri)...
As the low exits the area into the Gulf of Alaska, the gusty
northwest winds and blowing snow should continue to subside. A
weak ridge will move in through Thu morning keeping most of the
area dry. However, some light snow will try to creep over this
ridge through the Bethel area overnight, but there will be little
to no accumulation. The next front will approach the coast by late
Thu. This should allow the winds to switch around to southwesterly
and bring slightly warmer temperatures. This could also bring some
fog across a good portion of the region. We have opted to introduce
patchy at this time, but it could be more widespread and dense
depending on how warm the air is. The front should bring another
round of snow to the coast by Thu evening and track inland as it
weakens through Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
A weak trough moving across the Bering will help to keep some snow
showers going as the colder air moves over the warmer waters. By
Thu afternoon, yet another formidable mid-970mb low will approach
the Central Aleutians. This will usher in some gale-force south to
east winds from Atka to Dutch Harbor. The trend with this system
has been to move faster and farther east. This forecast package
continued that trend with the low passing just west of Nikolski by
Fri afternoon. This low will also bring up a slug of warm air.
850mb temperatures are expected to jump from -9C to near 0C. This
means that most of chain will see precipitation fall briefly as
snow before transitioning to a mix and then eventually all rain.
The exception to this would be way out near Attu where enough cold
air should wrap in to keep things all snow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A large gale-force frontal system with storm-force gusts will
move from the Central Aleutians and North Pacific north and east
to the southern Alaska Mainland and Gulf of Alaska through the
weekend. The overall impact will be a notable warming trend mainly
toward the coast (after a brief colder trend) and an increase in
coastal rain and snow and inland/mountain snow. Any significant
snowfall beyond flurries for inland areas (like Anchorage and the
Mat-Su) will largely depend on potential triple-point low
development in the Gulf moving toward Prince William Sound, which
some models show as a possibility Monday night or Tuesday of next
week. Outside of these features, general troughiness over much of
the region will yield a generally showery regime across the region
from Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 129 160.
         Gale Warning 130 131 132 138 150 172 173 174 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...CC