Gale Warning 741, NWS Anchorage, AK

197 
FZAK51 PAFC 232132 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

UPDATED ZONES 127 AND 128

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240445-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD COMPLEX LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-240445-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ120-240445-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ121-240445-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-240445-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NE 20 KT THROUGH MONTAGUE STRAIT 
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT THROUGH MONTAGUE
STRAIT IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ126-240445-
PORT VALDEZ-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-240445-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-240445-
VALDEZ ARM-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-240445-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-240445-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-240445-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-240445-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.

$$

PKZ136-240445-
CHINIAK BAY-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING.  SEAS
9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-240445-
MARMOT BAY-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.  RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE  LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-240445-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EARLY...THEN BECOMING NW 15 KT.  SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT DURING THE EVENING. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-240445-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-240445-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ141-240445-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

271 
FZAK51 PAFC 240021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241315-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU. A
995 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT LATE THU NIGHT AND MOVES
TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 990 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-241315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ120-241315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-241315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-241315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-241315-
PORT VALDEZ-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-241315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-241315-
VALDEZ ARM-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-241315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR
WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-241315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-241315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ132-241315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WIND NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-241315-
CHINIAK BAY-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS
3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-241315-
MARMOT BAY-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-241315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-241315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-241315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-241315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
321 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKST Wed Nov 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad complex low in the southern Gulf is bringing showers to
areas around the Gulf including Kodiak Island. To the west of this
low, remnants of a front stretch across the eastern Bering
bringing rain and snow to the Alaska Peninsula. Moving in behind
the diminishing front is ridging that is tracking east and moving
over the Central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement until Friday when there are
differences with the track of a low that is pushing across
southwest Alaska into the Gulf. The NAM brings the low into the
northern Gulf while the GEM is in the southern Gulf with the GFS
and EC in between. The further north solutions will offer the best
chance of snow for Southcentral Alaska but uncertainty with the
track of this low is high. The GFS solution was preferred.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low in the Gulf of Alaska is weakening and will move
southward, leaving southcentral Alaska under mostly clear skies
through Thanksgiving Day. Kodiak Island will still see some gusty
winds and rain showers with this low today, but will also clear
out for Thanksgiving Day as the low moves away from the area and
the island comes under northwest flow. The next system moves in
from the southwest reaching Kodiak Thursday night and then into
the Cook Inlet region Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Offshore flow is expected to diminish today as an area of low
pressure near Kodiak Island drifts further east into the Gulf of
Alaska. As this happens, high pressure will build across the
region from the north, which should help continue this period of
below normal temperatures. On Thursday, a very potent frontal
system will move across the eastern Bering Sea and inland over
Southwest Alaska. While some warmer air aloft is expected to nudge
into Southwest Alaska ahead of the front, 850 mb temperatures are
still expected to be in the -5C to -6C range, which is a huge
indicator that most, if not all, precipitation will fall as snow.
Model soundings indicate the snow growth zone will be nearly
saturated and have nice upward vertical motion due to the synoptic
forcing of the front. This should help squeeze out a storm total 3
to 6 inches across Southwest Alaska Thursday evening through much
of Friday, with the highest accumulations expected along the
Bering Sea coast. Chances for blowing snow seem pretty small at
this time as winds are expected to only peak at around 15 to 20
mph, because the frontal boundary falls apart rapidly as it moves
inland. This concern will continue to be monitored in the coming
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

As one area of low pressure exits the Bering Sea to the east this
morning, another one moves in from the west. A deepening area of
low pressure off the east coast of Kamchatka has begun to swing
another potent frontal boundary toward the Bering Sea. Gale force
winds will develop over the far western Bering Sea this morning as
the front approaches. However, winds will increase to storm force
(50-55 kt) near Shemya as the surface low moves into the Bering
Sea. A nice jet streak associated with the upper low stacked on
top of the surface low will help create another dynamic fetch
scenario, where seas are expected to increase to 35 to 40 ft on
Thursday. Much of the Bering Sea will see winds range from 30 to
45 knots Thursday and Friday as this low moves across the region.
In addition, periods of light to moderate rainfall and snowfall
will be expected across the Bering Sea with the potential for
minor accumulations over the western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The biggest change in the extended forecast deals with the storm
force low that develops in the base of the longwave trough south
of the Western Aleutians by Friday. The previous storm track had
this system tracking along the Chain before entering the Gulf. The
current solution brings the low to the central ALeutians, and
then across the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of AK on Sun. Look
for the associated weather front to approach the Southwest Alaska
coastline by Saturday morning. The temperatures for the Southwest
Alaska area remain below freezing. Therefore, the precipitation
will fall as all snow as this feature moves through the region
this weekend. This synoptic feature brings gale force
southeasterly to southerly winds accompanied by rain/stratus along
the Chain before spilling over into the eastern Bering heading
into the weekend. Storm force westerly to northwesterly winds
occur on the backside of this system as it skirts along the
Central/Eastern Chain before exiting the region. The ECMWF model
is faster than the GFS with this system, but both models bring
this storm into the northern Gulf by Sunday evening before moving
inland by Monday afternoon. Therefore, the Southcentral region
will be affected by the associated weather front by late Friday
evening going into Saturday morning. Due to the colder
temperatures already in place, any precipitation will fall as all
snow for the Southcentral region. Due to the model discrepancies
with the storm track, the forecast confidence remains average at
best through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 178
         Gales 131 155 165 170 172 173 175-177 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...dk
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ez
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...mc
LONG TERM...pd/ds