Gale Warning 735, NWS Anchorage, AK

154 
FZAK52 PAFC 221232
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230145-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 175 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL DISSIPATE 120 NM
NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR TONIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
KAMCHATKA LOW WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY WED
MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-230145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-230145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 40 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-230145-
BRISTOL BAY-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-230145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 20 KT
BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ170-230145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 
10 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-230145-
UNALASKA BAY-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-230145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-230145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-230145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-230145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ176-230145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 45 KT.
SEAS 26 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 28 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-230145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT BERING SIDE...36
FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 31 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-230145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 29 FT BERING SIDE...40 FT PAC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-230145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-230145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-230145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-230145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
332 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
612 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The contoured water vapor image aloft looks like a snowman(8) with
a pair of circulations over our forecast area. One is much
deeper, featuring the majority of the active weather, over the
southwestern gulf. The other is a weak remnant from the previous
system, however it does play a role in a developing
deformation zone over the Bristol Bay area. The front associated
with the stronger system is stalling out over the northern Gulf
this morning, featuring a wide band of unstable air aloft. Snow
showers over Kachemak Bay are a result of this air and frontal
proximity.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest differences in guidance is on the small scale around
Kachemak Bay this morning. Guidance differs on how much convective
snow to bring over the mountains, as well as how much downslope
drying occurs. The NAM/GEM regional favor a downslope scenario
while the GFS brings more moisture over in general. The GFS seems
to be catching on to the current scenario better than the other
models, it will be favored for the current forecast.

&&

AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected through at least this evening, with
clearing skies during the afternoon. Fog may become a possibility
beginning around 09z tonight through the remainder of the TAF
period (18z Tue), and this is hinted at with VCFG beginning at
that time. Expect changes as confidence increases toward such
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The biggest question for the weather across southcentral today is
the amount of snowfall for the southern Kenai Peninsula. The
decaying front in the northern Gulf of Alaska is bringing a series
of showers through the region. Most of these are remaining on the
windward side of the coastal mountains but they are making it into
the southern Kenai Peninsula and bringing some snowfall. At this
time a total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches looks reasonable
this morning for the region around Kachemak Bay. By afternoon the
showers should taper off and those that remain may be mixed with
rain as temperatures warm up some as well. After this system most
of southcentral Alaska should come into a drier and clearer
pattern through the middle of the week. This exception will, as
usual, be Kodiak Island which will get back into some
precipitation Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A deformation zone has set-up over the Aleutian Range near Iliamna
and King Salmon this morning which has helped to produce some snow
showers. Forecasting how far westward the snow will fall and
exactly how much is quite challenging in this situation as
offshore flow ranging from 10 to 20 kts has been common and has
kept the lowest levels of the atmosphere from saturating.
Nevertheless, the strongest forcing appears to be near Iliamna
which should help squeeze out 2 to 4 inches of snow through this
evening while areas as far west as King Salmon will see scattered
snow showers throughout the day with little or no snow accumulation.
Snow chances will diminish tonight near the Aleutian Range as an
area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska shifts southeast and
the deformation zone weakens and shifts eastward as well. Snow and
rain chances will increase across the Alaska Peninsula and and
Bristol Bay Area south of King Salmon on Tuesday as a potent front
moves into the eastern Bering Sea. Temperatures will continue to
run slightly below normal through the forecast period as a feed of
cold air from the arctic continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A gale force front currently located between the Western and
Central Aleutians will continue to propagate eastward through
Tuesday morning before falling apart off the west coast of Alaska.
Gusty winds ranging from 35 to 45 kts have also been seen across
the Alaska Peninsula near Cold Bay, False Pass, and King Cove as
northwesterly winds aided by cold air advection help push winds
through gaps in the terrain. These gusty winds should shut off
this afternoon as flow shifts to a more westerly vs northwesterly
direction ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary. On Monday
night into Tuesday, the area of low pressure responsible for the
aforementioned frontal boundary will move into the far western
Bering Sea. This will allow an interesting scenario to play out as
winds behind the frontal boundary will be westerly and a nice jet
streak accompanying the low as it moves into the Bering Sea. This
will produce a nice dynamic fetch which will allow seas to possibly
increase to near 40 ft near the Western Aleutian Islands tonight
and Tuesday morning. This is fairly uncommon with winds expected
to only range from 50 to 55 kts so mariners should make sure to
keep an eye on this situation.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

From previous discussion...

The jet stream continues to remain in a zonal flow along the Aleutian
Chain as it moves farther eastward before digging into the base of the
longwave trough positioned along the Northwestern coastline near Washington
State. This synoptic pattern will keep the storm track south of the
Southwest/Southcentral region heading into next weekend. While the
Bering/Aleutians receive a showery weather regime as a storm force
low tracks into the Western Aleutians/Bering by Tuesday. The
associated weather front with this system tracks becomes elongated
from a west to east orientation in the Bering as it falls apart by
Wednesday. By late Wednesday afternoon the next storm force low
moves into the Kamchatka Peninsula with associated weather front
moving through the Western Aleutians. The front tracks on same
path as previous, except this time a wave develops with a surface
low developing in the eastern Bering by Friday. This system tracks
across the Alaska Peninsula into the northern Gulf by Saturday.
This results in the majority of the precipitation to occur along
the northern Gulf, coastal communities. Look for the
Southwest/Southcentral regions to remain in offshore flow with the
coldest temperatures to remain in the Copper River Basin, and the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley through this week. The models are in decent
agreement with the track of these synoptic systems, but have
discrepancies in the placement of the surface lows. Therefore, the
forecast confidence remains average as we head into next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...119 120 130 131 139 150 155 170 172-176 179 185 351 411-414

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
AVIATION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...PD