Gale Warning 724, NWS Anchorage, AK

158 
FZAK52 PAFC 181255
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190145-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF KISKA
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO 130 NM NORTHEAST OF KISKA SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER 996 MB LOW QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND AND REPLACES THIS LOW AT
989 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW LATE FRI MOVES
TO 170 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SARICHEF AT 986 MB SAT AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE NEW LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT SAT
EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-190145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-190145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E... NW WIND 15 KT
BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-190145-
BRISTOL BAY-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-190145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-190145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-190145-
UNALASKA BAY-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-190145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-190145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-190145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-190145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ176-190145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-190145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ178-190145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT.

$$

PKZ179-190145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-190145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-190145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-190145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
355 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKST Thu Nov 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A concentric low pressure center aloft is digging south of the
Alaska Range over Southcentral Alaska. The cold-core system doesn't
appear to have really good moisture associated with it due to
its trajectory from the central Interior. At the surface, an
outflow pattern exists with high pressure north of the Alaska
Range and weak low pressure in the Gulf. Gusty winds in favored
gap locations along the north Gulf coast look to continue.

The longwave pattern is anchored by a larger upper low over
Kamchatka. The frontal boundary associated with it has an
impressive moisture feed from the sub-tropics all the way
northward through the Central Bering and Chukchi Peninsula. Winds
along the front are solid gale-force from the south, driving the
accompanying rain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance continues to be locked into the current synoptic pattern.
Little discrepancy exists among guidance for either frontal
position/strength in the Bering or for the upper low position in
the western Gulf. Some slight differences exist with the
precipitation placement and upper low position are present,
however, synoptically the story is the same. The east domain
favors the NAM early, while the western domain used the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A marginal ceiling this morning will give way to VFR
conditions by this afternoon. Otherwise, weak northerly winds and
VFR conditions prevail thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main feature impacting Southcentral this morning is a compact
upper level vort max, pushing south across the Kenai Peninsula.
Although the sounding this morning indicates a relatively dry
airmass, there is enough associated cold air aloft to support
steep lapse rates and light local showers along Cook Inlet this
morning. A separate band of showers are forming along Western
Prince William Sound and are associated with the weak surface low
in the Gulf of Alaska. Showers will continue to persist across
Prince William Sound into Friday as the Gulf of Alaska low
intensifies just to the south of Prince William Sound as the upper
level vort max interacts with the surface low.

Cold air will continue to filter into Southcentral as high
pressure remains established inland. Gusty winds will also
continue through local gaps as the current pressure gradient
remains in place. A persistent stratus deck across the Copper
River Basin is keeping temperatures from plummeting under cold
air advection across the region and will likely keep temperatures
plummeting tomorrow night as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An amplified upper level ridge builds into the Southwest Alaska
region with continued offshore flow accompanied by drier conditions
in the lower levels. An upstream trough over the eastern to
northern Bering will then move into the Kuskokwim Delta coastline
heading into this weekend. Therefore, look for some snow along the
previous aforementioned region by late Friday evening as the
weather front moves along the Kuskokwim Delta shoreline. As this
system moves through the Bristol Bay region, the precipitation
will be a wintry mix along the Bristol Bay coastline before
changing to all snow in the interior with temperatures below
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The gale force weather front continues to elongate as it moves
eastward stretching from the northern Bering southward into the
eastern Bering. This system moves inland through the Southwest
Alaska region by Friday evening. Meanwhile, on the backside of
this system the Bering/Aleutians will be under the influence of
westerly flow. As the cooler air filters in with the westerly
flow look for a wintry mix of precipitation with a showery
weather regime heading into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

By Fri afternoon a pattern change will be in full swing over our
corner of the Northern Hemisphere. The upper level ridge that has
been inhibiting the eastward progression of weather systems will
be slowly moving northeast. On Sat the change from a blocking
pattern to a progressive pattern begins. The location of the upper
high will force these eastward moving systems to remain south of
much of the forecast area. Whether the upper flow becomes
essentially zonal, or if there are several troughs that move east
is still uncertain. This means the timing of each individual low
that moves along the Aleutians remains in question. While the
forecast utilizes some NAM and GFS through Sat, the rest of the
forecast defers to the ensemble solution from WPC.

The relaxation of the blocking upper high means the Bering front
will be able to move across the coast before decaying over
southwest AK Fri night into Sat. A residual area of low pressure
will also gradually weaken along the north Gulf coast during this
period. On Sat an elongated double low moves along the Aleutians
through Sun, before consolidating and moving to Vancouver Island
by Wed. This will be followed by ridging that transits the
Aleutians to the Akpen Sun night into Tue. Another low will move
off Kamchatka Mon with an associated triple point reaching the
Gulf Wed. Finally a third low develops in the extreme western
Bering later on Wed.

In the west this will all result in some snow along the coast
initially Fri night into Sat, and then rain and snow showers
mainly over the Bering and Aleutians through the middle of next
week. In the east, some coastal rain and Chugach Mountain snow
will be associated with the north Gulf low through Sat. Brief
drying will be followed by some coastal rain and coastal mountain
snow as the lows move through the Gulf through midweek. Inland areas
of Southcentral will remain cold and dry.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 127 173-176 178-179 181 185 411-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PLD
LONG TERM...DS