Gale Warning 659, NWS Anchorage, AK

745 
FZAK61 PAFC 091244
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100130-
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE THIS MORNING AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKENS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. A 949 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 55N 146W AT 970
MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT BUILDING TO 21 TO
25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

293 
FZAK61 PAFC 100033
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101445-
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING...THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
56N 140W TONIGHT AND MOVE TO 60N 148W AT 970 MB THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING INLAND THU EVENING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AT 964 MB
THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 59N 147W AT 978 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-101445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 17 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
333 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS SEAS 12 TO 16 FT BUILDING TO 
16 TO 24 FT BY MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.

$$

431 
FZAK61 PAFC 101252
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110200-
352 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW FORMS 50 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND MOVES
ONSHORE AT 50N 160W AND DISSIPATES. A 957 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW 485
NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY ENTERS THE GULF OF ALASKA 235 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 971 MB FRI MORNING AND MOVES ONSHORE OVER
MONTAGUE ISLAND AT 985 MB SAT MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
352 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
352 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO
20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper levels have a ridge building over the Southcentral
region extending westward into the Southwest Alaska region. While
the satellite imagery is showing a comma shield over the lower
eastern Gulf with several bands of clouds streaming westward
through the Copper River Basin, and the northern Gulf region. The
Scatterometer wind imagery reflected small craft advisory
northwesterly winds just east of Kodiak Island extending into the
backside of the 971 mb surface low positioned near 56N 149W this
morning. This synoptic feature is bringing warmer temperatures
with the southeasterly winds along the northern Gulf before
spreading inland. The freezing level heights are ranging from
4,000 to 5,000 ft over the Anchorage Bowl extending southward into
the Kenai Peninsula. While the radar imagery is showing a showery
weather regime for the Southcentral region, and the Gulf of Alaska
as the surface low in the Gulf continues to weaken before dissipating.

Looking out west, the Bering/Aleutians are dominated by an
elongated 970 mb surface low located southwest of Saint George
extending into the North Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the majority of
the aforementioned region is dominated by gale to storm force
northeasterly winds before shifting to westerly along the Western
to Central Aleutians. The satellite imagery has a large swath of
moisture streaming northward through the Eastern Aleutians into
the Bering, and a showery regime on the backside of this low
pressure system this morning. Meanwhile, the Southwest Alaska
domain is under the influence of offshore winds with cooler
temperatures. There is some low stratus spilling over into the
Kuskokwim Delta area as the moisture streams northward into the
northern Bering this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in decent agreement as the surface low in the
Gulf dissipates by Wednesday morning. The Southcentral region
looks to have onshore flow with a warming trend with temperatures
above freezing reaching near 40 degrees Fahrenheit for the next
several days. For the Bering/Aleutians, the models are depicting
northerly flow with a showery weather regime through the midweek.
The lowest temperatures will occur over the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley, and through the Copper River Basin heading into Wednesday.
The GFS/ECMWF/NAM were the preferred models of choice with the
forecast confidence above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The warm air advection continues to bring warmer temperatures
to the Anchorage Bowl. Therefore, any precipitation that spills
over the Chugach Mountains will fall as rain this morning. Look
for VFR conditions to remain throughout today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The large upper low over the southern Gulf will continue to send
westerly moving short waves across the northern Gulf through
Wednesday afternoon. A fairly well defined surface low associated
with one of these waves moves west across Kodiak Island late
tonight and will bring gales to the western and northern Gulf.
Renewed gales and possibly storms are expected across the marine
areas again Wednesday/Wednesday night with the approach of the
next front moving north. The brunt of the precipitation will be
along the coasts and with the exception of higher elevations
should be predominately rain. Precipitation types with light spill
over west of the Chugach mountains will be more problematic today
and tonight until the warm air become fully entrenched Wednesday.
Up until then mixed precipitation types can be expected west of
the Chugach.

A strong weather front moves to the northern Gulf Wednesday night
bringing renewed precipitation to the Gulf coasts. Strong low
level easterly flow developing with this system will produce
downslope drying to the lee of the Chugach mountains and minimize
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak high pressure over the southwest Mainland will keep much of
the active weather out of the area into Wednesday. As a result,
the low stratus that has developed throughout the Kuskokwim River
Valley will likely persist with little wind to scour it out and
continued subsidence. By early Wednesday, a low over the Gulf
will begin to approach Bristol Bay, which will bring rain or wet
snow to the area for the middle of the week. With the cool and dry
conditions currently over the area, there is a slight chance of
brief period of freezing rain initially for interior Bristol Bay
as the precip begins on Wednesday morning, but with warm air
quickly on this way this should not be too long lasting. A frontal
system from the Gulf will then quickly follow the first low,
bringing rain and snow to much of the southwest Mainland through
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain, snow, and storm force winds will persist today as a slowly
weakening low begins to depart the Bering Sea region. Storm force
winds have already been verified along the front as it passed
over the Pribilof Islands overnight, and these winds will begin to
shift to the western Bering/Aleutians as strong cold air advection
develops. Storm force winds will then move into the central
Aleutians this evening as the low departs into the North Pacific.
As this occurs, northerly gale force winds and rain/snow showers
will spread throughout most of the Aleutians where they will
persist through Wednesday. The current active weather pattern will
then continue as another gale force low will begin to move into
the western Aleutians for late Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range forecast will be characterized by low pressure
south of mainland Alaska. As weaker lows traversing the area are
absorbed into the main low it will meander around the southern
Gulf and south of the Alaska Peninsula. There does remain some
disagreement amongst the models on how many weak surface lows will
be embedded within the broader area of low pressure, but impacts
should remain similar. This setup will bring southerly flow and
more warm air to the southern Mainland, while the Bering and
Aleutians will see northerly flow and cold air advection. The
heaviest precipitation will be along the north Gulf coast and
looks to be warm enough to fall as predominately rain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 119 175 176 177 178.
         Gale 120 130 131 132 136 138 139 150 170 172
              173 174 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...DK