Gale Warning 642, NWS Anchorage, AK

918 
FZAK51 PAFC 281119
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290030-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND
WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-290030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-290030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-290030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-290030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-290030-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-290030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-290030-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-290030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-290030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-290030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-290030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-290030-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-290030-
MARMOT BAY-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-290030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-290030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-290030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-290030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low south of Kodiak has started its southward
progression as Ridging to the west begins to quickly build over
the central and eastern Aleutians/Bering, as seen in satellite
imagery during the overnight period. Observations and Radar
imagery from the overnight period are showing rain and gusty winds
associated with this vertically stacked system impacting parts of
the Southwest Mainland and Western Gulf/Kodiak Island areas. To
the west of this system, strong downward vertical motion is
occurring across the Bering and supporting widely scattered
showers and relatively benign conditions. High pressure over the
Copper River Basin has started to retreat northward and loosen
its grip over Southcentral Alaska, with upper level clouds
associated with the Alaska Peninsula baroclinic zone continuing to
push eastward into the region. As a result, mostly clear
conditions are currently limited to the eastern portions of the
Copper River Basin.

Further West...The frontal system associated with a low currently
set up just east of the Kamchatka Peninsula has stared to push
into the Western and Central Aleutians. Current observations over
this area are showing gusty south-to-southwesterly winds and
precipitation moving into the area this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in generally good agreement in the short term as
the low pressure system south of Kodiak Island drifts further
into the southern Gulf of Alaska. Models are still showing much
more disagreement on the development of a triple point along the
front that pushes into Bristol Bay Friday. Currently the Canadian
model shows the best compromise between the solutions in terms of
strength and track. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty
in how it will develop and bring gusty winds to the Eastern
Aleutians and Bering overnight tonight into Friday morning, and
eventually over the Southwest Mainland coast and Alaska Peninsula
during the day Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The deep low south of Kodiak Island will slowly exit across the
Northeast Pacific today through tonight. Rain and strong winds
in vicinity of Kodiak Island will linger through mid-day then
quickly diminish during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Meanwhile, Southcentral will undergo a steady warm-up over the
next couple days and see a chance of precip re-introduced into
the forecast after a dry mostly cloud-free week. The combination
of a short-wave moving in from the east today then a dissipating
trough approaching from the Bering Sea tonight will advect moisture
and warmer air up from the Gulf into Southcentral. Temperatures
are already quite warm along the mountains, with 30s to 40s above
1000 feet. The warm advection will scour out the shallow surface
cold pool bringing above freezing temperatures to most areas by
Friday. The presence of clouds will also result in notably warmer
night-time temps.

The forcing for precip is weak, with just a few isolated showers
possible, mainly in upslope flow along the coast. Isentropic lift
will increase Friday night as an upper ridge moves through and
southerly flow strengthens. Thus, precip will become more likely
in the Prince William Sound Region and along the west side of
Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. A weakening surface front will
approach Kodiak Island late Friday Night, with rain likely by
Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low south of Kodiak Island will weaken and drift south this
morning which will effectively cutoff the moisture stream to the
region. Clouds will slowly break up and precipitation will end
through the day today. A strong warm front will move into the
Central Bering Sea tonight then shift east toward the coast Friday
and Friday night. Powerful southerly winds will increase to 50-60
MPH along parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coast with
peak winds Friday evening and early overnight. Rain will accompany
the front and will move inland Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An anchoring low centered east of Kamchatka will support the
northeast progression of a broad but strong warm front across the
Bering Sea today through Friday. The front will be reinvigorated
with subtropical moisture as it moves into the Eastern Bering Sea
Friday, and this is where it is expected to reach max intensity as
a high end gale force to near storm force front. A trailing cold
front will quickly race across the Bering and reach the Southwest
Alaska coast Friday night. Broad upper level troughing and cold
air advection over the Bering waters will result in rather
widespread showers over the Western Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A very active weather pattern over the Bering/Aleutians and
southwest Mainland will continue into early next week. The front
associated with a gale force low over the northern Bering will
weaken as it moves toward the southwest coast, bringing rain and
gusty southerly winds to the area. This front will also have
enough strength to force the persistent Mainland ridging well east
of the area. This will allow for a portion of the front to move
into the Gulf, bringing a chance of rain back to the north Gulf
coast with a cloudy (but generally dry) and warm weekend for
Southcentral.

Starting Sunday, yet another strong low will begin moving through
the western Aleutians. The models have come into much better
agreement in the placement of this low through Monday, allowing
winds/seas over the region to be significantly increased with
today's forecast update. There is now high confidence that this
will become at least a storm force low with at least 30 ft seas over
the central Bering and Aleutians, and has the potential to bring
hurricane force winds to the region with its much stronger
dynamics than the last 2 systems that have moved through the area.
Without the protection of a strong blocking ridge over the
Mainland, the front associated with this low will then move into
the Gulf, bringing increasing winds and chances of rain back into
the north Gulf Coast and Southcentral into early next week. Deep
and warm southerly flow will also accompany this front, allowing
temperatures to rise well above normal late this weekend into the
middle of next week for most of the south Mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale...131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 173 174
				175 176 177 178 179 180 411 412 413 414.
		 Storm...181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...tp
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...seb
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ja
LONG TERM...dek