Gale Warning 640, NWS Anchorage, AK

648 
FZAK51 PAFC 271134
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280045-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK EXITS ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-280045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. 
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-280045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-280045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-280045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-280045-
PORT VALDEZ-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-280045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-280045-
VALDEZ ARM-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-280045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-280045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-280045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-280045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ136-280045-
CHINIAK BAY-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-280045-
MARMOT BAY-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-280045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-280045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-280045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-280045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
334 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A deep but weakening upper low over Eastern Siberia continues to
anchor a broad trough stretching from Japan to the southwest
coast of Alaska. Embedded within are a series of lower amplitude
shortwave trough features. Shortwave ridging over Southcentral is
in the process of moving east while a leftover front straddling
the Alaska Range stalls. A rather impressive PV anomaly moving
south of the Eastern Aleutians is in the process of intersecting a
remnant warm front in the North Pacific left over from the now
stalled frontal zone over the Alaska Range. Farther west, south of
Kamchatka, a small storm force low is developing along the NPAC
jet stream and will eventually move into the southwest Aleutians
as a weakening gale force low. The PV anomaly south of the Eastern
Aleutians will eventually phase-lock with the warm front,
undergoing rather intense cyclogenesis as the cold air wraps in
behind the low and elevated convection begins to initiate along
the upper warm front today.

Across inland Southcentral, more mundane weather continues to
dominate as strong inversions remain across the interior. This is
keeping a rather shallow low level air mass in place with
continued warming temperatures aloft. This shallow air mass,
however, is good enough to keep a tight coastal pressure gradient
and continued offshore winds from Prince William Sound eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in excellent agreement with the large scale
pattern through the weekend. They are in much better agreement
with the low south of the Eastern Aleutians/Kodiak Island today
and tomorrow, but they continue to remain in poor agreement with a
strong front and potential deeper low moving into the Eastern
Bering Thursday night and Friday. The ECMWF is continuing to show
a rather intense near hurricane force low development Friday
afternoon moving near the Kuskokwim Delta coast while the faster
and weaker NAM/GFS solutions show a gale to low end storm force
front. For now the latter solutions were favored, but some
Canadian GDPS was integrated into the forecast to show some
possibility of a ECMWF scenario which slows the front down and
increases the strength of the winds in this forecast package.
Otherwise, forecast confidence is high with minimal issues for
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

For Anchorage...VFR conditions with light winds will continue
through Thursday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A thick cirrus shield left from a trough and surface front which
crossed Southwest Alaska on Tuesday will sit over most of Southcentral
today, stuck on the west side of an upper level ridge. Meanwhile, a
developing low south of the Alaska Peninsula will send an occluded
front northward toward the Gulf and Kodiak Island, bringing strong
winds and rain Tonight into Thursday. The main impact on the Mainland
will be tightening pressure gradients, which will cause localized gap
winds to kick back up.

The low track will cause upper level flow to shift to southeast,
bringing warmer temperatures across the Gulf and to Southcentral
Tonight through Thursday. Another trough moving in from the
Bering Sea will then bring in even warmer air as we head to the
end of the week. Thus, expect a steady warming trend over the next
few days. Weak isentropic lift, possibly combined with weak features
transiting aloft, will bring a chance of precip back to the forecast
for some areas Thursday Night and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A developing low south of the Alaska Peninsula pushes a front
westward across the Alaska and Aleutian ranges, spreading rain
toward the southwest coast this afternoon. The boundary stalls and
weakens overnight across the Kuskokwim Delta to the western capes
of Bristol Bay bringing an end to precipitation. Wet conditions
will aid patchy fog development through Thursday morning across
much of the region as surface ridge shifts across from the eastern
Bering. The next low pressure system pushes a front into the
Kuskokwim Delta Thursday night. Strong winds increase along the
boundary along with rain moving back into the coast by early Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low pressure system developing south of the Alaska Peninsula
moves a front into the southeastern Bering this morning with gusty
flow increasing through the morning. South to east flow becomes
north tonight as this system tracks east. Westerly winds prevail through
today across the central and western Bering with weak shortwaves
bringing occasional showers. An unsettled pattern continues
through Friday as the the jet stream moves the next front in from
the North Pacific. Deep subtropical moisture streams across
tonight along a second fast moving front. Strong gusty winds
develop along the frontal boundary along with heavy rain moving
into the eastern Bering and Aleutians by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Most of the active weather in the AOR will remain confined to the
Bering through the weekend, as a strong frontal system pushes
through the Eastern Bering and Western Coast Friday into Saturday,
and another strong north Pacific system moves into the
western/central Aleutians by Saturday evening. There however
remains high confidence that persistent ridging over the Mainland
will begin to weaken, allowing the front associated with this low
to move into the Gulf and Southcentral for this weekend. This will
bring an end to the sunny and benign weather that much of
Southcentral has experienced since last week with increasing
clouds and a chance of rain. The north Gulf Coast will have the
best chance of rain from this system, however the front will have
weakened significantly so heavy rain is not expected. More
importantly, the ridge is expected to remain east of area into
early next week, allowing for a much more active pattern for the
Gulf and Southern Mainland as a broad upper level trough sets up
over much of the AOR. This will bring increasing chances for
widespread rain and Gale-force winds for the Gulf through early
next week as the low track shifts to the east.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning...130 131 132 138 150 155 170 173 174 175
                        176 177 178 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...TP