Gale Warning 629, NWS Anchorage, AK

778 
FZAK52 PAFC 232344
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241230-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 MB LOW 500 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND
WEAKEN. A 978 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA SUN EVENING WILL
MOVE TO 500 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 950 MB MON EVENING
AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH TUE. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MON AND
MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY TUE.


$$

PKZ150-241230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241230-
BRISTOL BAY-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241230-
UNALASKA BAY-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 55 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 45 KT
BECOMING SE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Another omega block in the upper levels has set up across western
Alaska this afternoon. The associated ridge axis is aligned along
the west coast, with the pair of upper lows centered south of the
Gulf of Alaska on the east side, and over the far western
Aleutians near Attu on the west side. The omega block will prevent
significant changes to the weather over Southcentral from the
current sunny and cold conditions.

Southcentral's primary weather concerns today involve areas of
very windy conditions. This morning, Thompson Pass had gusts to 70
mph, with gusts over 60 mph being reported in Valdez proper.
Strong high pressure over interior Alaska is drawing cold, dense
air southward towards the low over the Gulf. Thus, the passes that offer
the path of least resistance are those experiencing the strongest
winds, which include Thompson Pass, the Valdez Narrows, the Copper
River Delta, the Seward area, and Cook Inlet.

For Southwest Alaska, surface ridging extends right through the
area, as would be expected with the axis of upper level ridging
also overhead. As such, most of Southwest Alaska is also seeing
full sunshine, but for most areas away from the Alaska Range,
without the winds. High clouds are moving into coast regions from
the Kuskokwim delta north and west ahead of the next storm over
the Bering.

The most active weather once again is occurring over the Bering
and Aleutians today. An atmospheric river of moisture is streaming
north out of the tropics ahead of a strong low moving through the
western Bering. Gusty conditions are occurring along the entire
Aleutian chain. The plume of moisture has been moving eastward
quickly enough that precipitation amounts thus far have been
relatively light.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in good agreement today through the short term
forecast. The NAM and Hi-Res models were used on the east side,
where winds are the most pertinent forecast concern, to better
handle local effects. Meanwhile out west, the GFS22 was the
preferred model. Forecast confidence is high. Some forecast
challenges will be determining the magnitude and timing of the
peak wind speeds on the east side, as some gusts have been
approaching high wind criteria this morning. Out west, the
challenge will also be determining how strong the winds will get
over the Bering, and the evolution of upcoming potentially
stronger lows moving into the Bering from the Pacific in the
coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The arctic trough is now digging into the North Pacific with
weakening northerly flow aloft over the region. This is allowing
for clearing skies and a weakening of the pressure gradient, the
latter of which will slacken dramatically overnight. Associated
offshore winds will also weaken, but with cold air in the
interior, this will keep a weak offshore drainage flow.

Tonight through Sunday, with ridging building in aloft from the
west, expect warming temperatures aloft. However, due to strong
inversions and colder nights, temperatures at the surface,
including during the day, will not feel this recovery of
temperatures aloft, so expect cold night and cooler days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure will keep southwest AK generally clear, cool and
dry through Sun night. A decaying front will move inland Sun
night, with clouds affecting the coast into Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong front will bring rain and gales to the central Aleutians
and Bering tonight, and small craft wind to the eastern Aleutians
Sun, before weakening over the AK peninsula on Mon. The next
system will spread more rain beginning Sun night, and potentially
dangerous wind to the western and central Aleutians on Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An amplified upper level ridge continues to build over the
Southwest/Southcentral region as we head into Monday time-frame.
Therefore, northerly offshore flow influences the Southcentral
region accompanied by colder air filtering into the region
through the upcoming midweek. By Wednesday morning this synoptic
featured will exit the region into the Yukon Territory. This
allows southwesterly flow with warmer temperatures to advect into
the Southcentral region through the next several days. Meanwhile,
several storms track through the Bering with the first storm
force low tracking just west of Shemya with an associated weather
front moving through the Western Aleutians. While, upstream a 150
knot northwesterly jet streak digs into the base of the longwave
trough located just west of the Western Aleutians. This synoptic
feature progressively intensifies the a rapidly developing storm
force North Pacific Low located just south of Shemya by Monday
morning. The GFS model has been the most consistent, and depicts a
974 mb low near Kiska by Monday afternoon. This low will rapidly
intensifying to a 941 mb hurricane force low as it tracks west of
Saint Matthew Island by Tuesday morning. As this system tracks
through the Bering and the Western Aleutians look for strong gusty
south/southwesterly winds accompanied by widespread rain/stratus.
Therefore, look for warmer temperatures in the aforementioned
regions through next week. By Wednesday this systems exits the
region into the Eastern Siberian region. Then, another storm
force low enters the Western Aleutians with the same storm track
as the previous storms. This new storm exits the region into the
Eastern Siberian region by Friday morning. Therefore, in between
these systems the Bering/Aleutians will have a showery weather
regime.

The NAM/GFS models are in better agreement with the strength of
intensifying hurricane force low pressure system as it tracks
into the Western Bering by Monday afternoon. While, the ECMWF has
briefly come into better agreement with these models, but then
tracks this system way faster than the previous mentioned models.
The GFS continues to be the preferred model of choice. This system
will remain under close scrutiny for the possible weather impacts
as it tracks through the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High wind watch zones 187 and 191.
MARINE...gales 127 171 173 174 175 177 178 179 185 411 412 413
414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...PD