Gale Warning 589, NWS Anchorage, AK

347 
FZAK52 PAFC 082305
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091200-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 962 MB LOW 425 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO NEAR EASTERN
RUSSIA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST
PACIFIC LOW WILL BECOME A BROAD COMPLEX LOW CENTERED 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF ADAK AT 964 MB BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-091200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND
30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NE WIND
20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-091200-
BRISTOL BAY-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-091200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-091200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ171-091200-
UNALASKA BAY-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-091200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-091200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ174-091200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-091200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-091200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-091200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-091200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-091200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-091200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-091200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-091200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
305 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE WIND 35 KT.
SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
529 AM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The broken record of idyllic autumnal weather continues across
Southcentral Alaska this morning as surface high pressure remains
in place. A well defined center of the surface high is offshore
over the central Gulf, leading to a very light westerly wind along
the coast. Inland, calm winds, even in the Matanuska Valley, are
allowing for widespread 20s from the interior Kenai Peninsula
northward. The cold spot in all of southern Alaska remains
Gulkana, where a reservoir of stratified cold air in the Copper
River Basin being allowed to cool more and more each day with
rapidly lengthening nights.

Conditions are far different over Southwest Alaska, as a strong
front remains nearly stalled along the coast from the north
Pacific through Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta. The bite
from the front are the winds, as associated precipitation is all
bark. Cape Newenham reported a gust of 72 mph yesterday evening,
with 30-40 mph gusts common through that entire area.
Precipitation is limited to a few isolated showers near the coast.
King Salmon's 00Z sounding shows that the entire atmosphere is
incredibly dry, so any precip that makes it to the ground, if any,
is only amounting to a trace.

A strong low over the Bering is moving northward over the middle
of the Bering Sea. It too has been a big wind maker, causing wind
gusts as high as 75 mph yesterday morning in Atka. The winds have
been steadily increasing over the Pribilofs last night as well as
the low makes its closest approach, with frequent wind gusts over
50 mph at both Sts. George and Paul.

This weather pattern is the direct result of a textbook omega
block over Alaska. An omega block is called that because it
resembles a Greek capital letter omega. Upper level lows over the
Bering and near the southern tip of the Panhandle are separated by
a very amplified upper level ridge centered over the heart of the
state. Thus, the jet stream weaves in between these features,
creating the look of the Greek letter omega. Under the upper level
lows, the weather is active, as evidenced by the current
conditions over the Bering, while the rest of the state is under
the ridge, resulting in calm, quiet weather. The omega block is
called a block because it is a stable weather pattern, meaning it
usually persists for a long time. Thus the forecast remains sunny
and dry over the mainland, while a seemingly endless train of
storm after storm track through the Bering, but have a very hard
time making any eastward progress.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in fairly good agreement through Sunday
morning with the synoptic features, but begin to struggle by
Sunday afternoon with another North Pacific low tracking into the
Western Aleutians. Models remain in good agreement with the Bering
Sea low tracking back to the Northwest Saturday and into Eastern
Russia by Sunday morning, as well as the timing and strength of
the frontal winds and they push further inland into the Western
Coast.

As mentioned above, the models then begin to struggle with
the timing and placement of the strong winds associated with the
next North Pacific system, but seem to agree on the strength of
the main system. The American models (GFS/NAM) were the preferred
solutions regarding this system, as they show strong gusty winds
pushing into the Central Aleutians Sunday Afternoon. However,
forecast confidence begins to drop off over night Sunday into
Monday, as the models begin to struggle with the potential
development of a triple point low south of Adak Sunday
night/Monday morning. This can directly affect the intensity of
the winds as they begin pushing into the Eastern Aleutians Monday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The biggest change in forecast thinking is that models are more
aggressive in pushing the ridge over the state eastward which will
allow the front approaching Kodiak Island today to move farther
northeastward tomorrow. This will spread cloud cover and some
precipitation farther up Cook Inlet on Sunday than previously
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Much of the active weather today will be confined to the
southwest coast where a nearly stationary frontal boundary will
bring periods of rain as well as strong SE winds, especially to
the AKpen and Kuskokwim Delta coast. This front will begin to move
inland over Bristol Bay starting this afternoon as a wave begins
to develop over the AKpen, allowing strong winds to spread
northward into the Aleutian Range. This front will also bring
widespread rain to much of Bristol Bay through tonight, which may
be heavy at times near southeast facing terrain (such as northwest
Bristol Bay) due to strong upslope flow. This front will then
continue lifting northwards into the Kuskokwim Valley as it
dissipates, spreading a chance of rain but with diminishing winds
to most the southwest Mainland for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of the area will see a short lived period of much quieter
beginning this afternoon as the storm force low over the central
Bering continues to weaken as it moves northward. Yet another
storm force low approaching the central Aleutians on Sunday
afternoon will track further east into the Aleutians as ridging
over the Mainland begins to shift eastward. This will allow strong
winds to reach as far eastward as Dutch Harbor by late Sunday
night before spreading into the Bering for early next week. The
good news is that this system will be slightly weaker than the
remnants of Super Typhoon Chaba which brought a brief period of
high winds to the central Aleutians yesterday. There is however good
agreement that it will bring a broad area of storm force winds and
seas upwards of 20 ft to the central-eastern Aleutians into
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A high latitude omega blocking pattern will continue across the
Bering Sea and Alaska through midweek before the patten finally
breaks down. This will lead to continued sunshine and near normal
temperatures across the Alaska mainland but lead to a wet period
across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. With the ridge portion
of the omega block over the mainland, an amplified trough and
upper level low over the Bering Sea and North Pacific will
continue to bring system after system through the Bering Sea. The
jet stream will become more zonal on Tuesday which will help bring
about the transition that will break down the upper level ridge
over the mainland. Models struggle quite a bit from Tuesday night
onward as the blocking pattern breaks down as the different models
bring about the demise of the upper level ridge over the mainland
in different ways and at different times. However, a potent area
of low pressure is likely to develop over the western Aleutians on
Monday and drift into the North Pacific south of the Alaska
Peninsula Tuesday night. Models have trended further south from
run-to-run as colder air coming off the coast of Russia will
prevent a lot of deamplification of the upper level trough over
the Bering Sea.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...storm 185.
         gale 150 160 165 175 176 177 178 179 180 181.
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW/TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MC