Gale Warning 534, NWS Anchorage, AK

761 
FZAK52 PAFC 211204
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220045-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES TO 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 980 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR
CAPE NEWENHAM AT 984 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-220045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-220045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-220045-
BRISTOL BAY-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-220045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-220045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-220045-
UNALASKA BAY-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-220045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-220045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-220045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-220045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-220045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-220045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-220045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-220045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-220045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-220045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-220045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
404 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
845 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main low is over the central Bering as it continues its
easterly track. Its associated front is bringing winds and rain to
southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula as it pushes through.
Winds associated with the front have been reported as high as 50
KT south of the Alaska Peninsula by means of a ship ob at 06Z. Out
ahead of the front ridging extends up the eastern edge of the
state and is also tracking off to the east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement with the movement and
intensity of the main low as it moves through the Bering and are
now in decent agreement with the first triple point low that moves
through Bristol Bay this afternoon. However, there are still some
issues with the second triple point low that forms south of the
Kenai Peninsula tonight. But they are starting to fall in line
with the newer model runs, giving higher confidence in the timing
of the winds for Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
Most significant concern is the high potential for extreme LLWS
at PANC this evening into the overnight. Latest high-res model
guidance just arriving for the 12z TAF package indicates gusty
southeasterly surface winds through the afternoon. Winds then
become northwest and/or variable and potentially gusty from the
airport north and east beginning around 01z as the leeside low
deepens rapidly, with extreme LLWS of at least 50 kt. Strong,
gusty southeast winds then almost instantaneously return around 10
or 11z and end the LLWS. Cigs will remain VFR throughout.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering storm is expected to bring the strongest winds of the
week on today and Wednesday as it moves a front into the gulf.
This potent storm system is already organized with an occluded
surface front. A broader swath of subtropical moisture, in
comparison to last week's storm, is streaming around this system
which will result in significant rain accumulations over the
eastern Kenai and Gulf coastal locations.

The front will move into the western Gulf early today and moves
to the eastern Gulf Wednesday. A significant low, showing signs of
development on this morning satellite imagery, intensifies as it
heads north into Southwest Alaska tonight. Storm force winds are
expected with and in advance of the front across marine zones as
it tracks slowly east. Very windy conditions are expected across
much of the Southcentral mainland ramping up today and continuing
into Wednesday afternoon. Warning level winds are likely across
the Anchorage Bowl, Turnagain Arm, and Portage Valley beginning
this evening, peaking overnight before diminishing Wednesday
afternoon. A strong barrier jet is expected to develop along the
Gulf coast in advance of the front Wednesday bringing warning
level easterly winds to the Cordova area. Winds will diminish
across much of Southcentral later Wednesday. A Low moving west
across the Gulf Wednesday night may continue gales along the
coast. Models however differ significantly with this feature.

Moderate to Heavy rain with the front is expected to develop
across the southern and eastern Kenai Pen this evening and spread
to the North Gulf coast overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong front moving through southwest AK will clear the
Kuskokwim Delta by mid morning and bring steady rain to the
Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay regions today as it continues
eastward and stalls along the Alaska Range. However, the largest
short term forecast concerns remain tied to the triple point low
currently taking shape south of the Akpen. This feature will
quickly intensify through the afternoon as it rides northward
along the front into interior Bristol Bay by late this evening. In
addition to enhancing moderate to heavy rainfall over much of the
area, the low will also bring the potential for strong southeast
winds to the western slopes of the Aleutian Range as the pressure
gradient rapidly tightens ahead of the system. Forecast thinking
with respect to these winds is largely unchanged from the past 24
hours, with winds increasing through the afternoon and then
peaking during the evening before quickly diminishing late
tonight after the passage of the low. Gusts are still expected to
top out in the 60-65 mph range, with a larger swath of 40-50 mph
gusts extending well inland to interior Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Valley. Conditions will improve markedly by Wednesday
morning as the system quickly departs to the north, with broad
onshore flow ahead of the sprawling Bering low supporting a more
benign cloudy and showery regime through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The large vertically stacked low in the central Bering will
remain the dominant feature impacting the weather over the region
as it slowly fills and tracks eastward to the vicinity of Nunivak
Island through Wednesday night. This will support widespread
shower activity and Small Craft Advisory level winds, with a
smaller area of embedded gales today on the south side of the low
center. A pool of cold air aloft associated with the low center
will also continue to enhance instability and bring the chance for
a few thunderstorms to the central Bering through tonight, with
thunderstorm potential extending as far east as the Pribilof
Islands by early this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast Wednesday evening, a large
and powerful trough will encompass the entire region. The
associated storm force warm front will be moving toward the
eastern Gulf of Alaska. Over the Bering there will be broad
cyclonic flow and weak cold air advection. However, lapse rates
will be rather steep so widespread convective showers will
encompass the whole Bering and Aleutians. Farther east, the main
moisture stream will be oriented from Prince William Sound east,
but is expected to retrograde slightly west by Thursday morning as
a basal shortwave trough moves toward the Gulf of Alaska. Rain
will overspread the Copper Basin, north coast, and will eventually
make it into Anchorage north to the Susitna Valley. The strongest
storm force winds will remain over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, but
strong gale force winds may move as far west as Prince William
Sound. By Friday, the strong front will weaken and move inland,
leaving a broad and weakening trough over the eastern Bering with
widespread shower activity lasting through Saturday.

By Monday, the upper wave pattern becomes more progressive and
noisy as a series of upper PV anomalies split off the polar trough
and dig into the Bering Sea and southern Alaska. However, with
rather diffuse baroclinic instability and a detached subtropical
jet stream, these lows look to be rather weak with more sporadic
rain and shower chances heading into mid week. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler with weak cold air advection and the loss of
subtropical moisture pumping inland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning...101 125 135.
         Flood Watch...125.
         Flood Advisory...161.
MARINE...Gales...121 127 136 155.
         Storms...119 120 125 128-132 137-139 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA