Gale Warning 483, NWS Anchorage, AK

126 
FZAK61 PAFC 081134
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090130-
334 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 60N 152W WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON. A 1010 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 
56N 141W TONIGHT AT 995 MB...THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR 58N 136W AT
992 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 59N 143W 
FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
334 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
334 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

998 
FZAK61 PAFC 082335
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091345-
335 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 53N 152W MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT
AT 985 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INLAND SAT NIGHT. A 1000 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 59N 143W FRI NIGHT AND DRIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-091345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
335 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
335 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 TO 30 KT IN THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

556 
FZAK61 PAFC 091145
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100115-
345 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 57N 142W MOVES TO 58N 148W AT 990 MB FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INLAND. A 1000 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 
59N 143W FRI EVENING AND MOVES TO 57N 138W AT 1012 MB SAT 
MORNING THEN DISSIPATES SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-100115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
345 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
345 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

264 
FZAK61 PAFC 092316
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101330-
316 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1000 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 59N 143W THIS EVENING AND MOVES TO
57N 137W AT 1012 MB SAT MORNING THEN DISSIPATES SAT AFTERNOON. A
FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT AND MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-101330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
316 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
316 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

142 
FZAK61 PAFC 101128
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 AM AKDT SAT SEP 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110100-
328 AM AKDT SAT SEP 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1014 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 60N 144W THIS MORNING THEN DISSIPATES
THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT
AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
328 AM AKDT SAT SEP 10 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
328 AM AKDT SAT SEP 10 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad longwave trough emcompasses much of Alaska with two
centers of rotation visible on satellite imagery this morning. The
first low center is gradually weakening as it progresses eastward
through the northern Gulf. This system is what remains of the
dominant Bering low that shaped much of southern Alaska's weather
over the past few days. The second low is an upper-level Arctic
low dropping southward through the southwest mainland. Between the
systems, some shortwave ridging is building in over the Alaska
Range and the Cook Inlet area.

As mid-level cooler and drier air wraps around the polar low,
instability over the southwest Mainland is on the increase. This
is manifesting itself as scattered convective showers over the
area. However, a lack of moisture as indicated on afternoon
soundings is preventing the showers from becoming more widespread.
Over Southcentral Alaska, showers earlier in the day have tapered
off as weak shortwave ridging builds in overnight. Further east,
convective showers over the eastern Prince William Sound and
northern Gulf are pushing onshore as they wrap around the Gulf
low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through Thursday, however they begin
to differ synoptically Thursday night as a Pacific low moves into
the eastern Gulf. The GFS and the ECMWF solutions track a fairly
impressive low into the northeastern Gulf, while the outlier NAM
is much weaker with the system and keeps most of the energy in the
southeast Gulf. A trend towards the GFS solution was used in the
morning forecast package. Forecast confidence is high in the short
term then lowers Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A relatively weak upper level ridge is dominating the weather
across Southcentral this morning. The showers from last night have
pushed eastward, and now just patchy fog and low stratus is in the
area. However, the next upper level low is poised to approach the
region by this afternoon. Showers are expected to redevelop this
afternoon as the low approaches, especially along the mountains.
With sufficient lapse rates and moisture available, rainfall is
still expected to be convective, with a few strikes of lightning
not out of the question for the western Kenai Peninsula, Susitna
Valley and eastern Copper River Valley. The chance for convective
showers will continue into Thursday as the upper level low
continues to linger just to the west of the Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A well defined upper level low will drop south across Southwest
Alaska throughout the day today and keep rain showers common
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. The
greatest chance for these showers will be over the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley where the greatest lift ahead of the upper level low will
be located. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
across the Kuskokwim Valley associated with this upper level
feature as increased vertical lift interacts with marginal low to
mid-level instability. The atmosphere both underneath and behind
the upper low will become quite stable as cold air is advected
southward behind the upper level low which will help minimize the
possibility for widespread thunderstorms. Otherwise, shower
activity will taper off quite quickly tonight and Thursday with
just a few lingering showers along the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure continues to overspread the Bering Sea this morning
with multiple observation sites showing stratus decks less than
1000 ft. This trend will likely continue over the next several
days as subsidence associated with the building high prevents much
of the low level moisture from mixing out. That being said, some
gradual improvement of raising ceilings may be seen at times as
diurnal heating/daylight helps mix the boundary layer. As the high
pressure becomes more entrenched, the likelihood of fog will
increase but the exact locations will be quite troublesome to come
by but best chances will be near Saint Matthew Island.

An area of low pressure currently near Japan will move eastward
toward the Western Aleutians over the next couple of days. As this
low moves eastward, it will strengthen a fair amount which will
begin to clash with the building high pressure over the Bering. At
this time, it looks very likely that this pressure gradient will
be conducive for a gale force front to develop and push through
the southern Bering Sea near Adak, Atka and Dutch Harbor late
Thursday into Friday. This gale force front is expected to
continue to push through the Bering through much of the weekend
but models diverge on how quickly the front falls apart. Moderate
to heavy rainfall will be possible as well with this next front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Lingering precipitation will be in the process of clearing out of
Southcentral AK from west to east as the extended period begins late
Thursday into early Friday with the broad upper level trough
shifting east of the region. This will yield a pleasant start to
the weekend marked by mostly sunny skies as a high amplitude ridge
builds in from the Pacific. These conditions will be relatively
short lived however, as attention quickly turns to a deep North
Pacific low taking shape south of the Aleutian chain on Friday.
The low will track to near Dutch Harbor by Sunday afternoon and
then rapidly move inland over the southwest mainland Sunday night,
bringing rain to much of the Aleutians during the weekend and
spreading to the mainland by Sunday. This system will also drive
a front through the gulf of Alaska, with precipitation likely
arriving over much of Southcentral AK by Sunday evening as the
front pushes inland. Mid to extended term guidance has been in
good agreement with this system for the past several runs, leading
to increasing confidence that much of the southern mainland will
see at least moderate rainfall in the Sunday afternoon to Monday
night time frame. Another detail which will bear watching is the
potential for strong gap winds to develop through favorable areas
such as Turnagain Arm as the surface low passes near Nunivak
Island Sunday night, allowing a favorable pressure gradient to
develop over the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CB