Gale Warning 457, NWS Anchorage, AK

191 
FZAK62 PAFC 101118
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110230-
318 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1003 MB LOW AT 55N 179W MOVES TO 54N 169W AT 1008 MB AND
DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 50N 159E MOVES TO 57N
173W AT 992 MB BY FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER
THE ALEUTIANS TO THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-110230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-110230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-110230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-110230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

432 
FZAK62 PAFC 102259
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
259 PM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111315-
259 PM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR 54N 166E MOVES TO 57N 175E THU AFTERNOON AND
MAINTAINS STRENGTH...THEN MOVES TO 57N 169W AT 989 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-111315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
259 PM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-111315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
259 PM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S TO E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-111315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
259 PM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-111315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
259 PM AKDT WED AUG 10 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

467 
FZAK62 PAFC 111125
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 AM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120115-
325 AM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 56N 171E WEAKENS TO 990 MB NEAR 56N 164W FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-120115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
325 AM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-120115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
325 AM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-120115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
325 AM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-120115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
325 AM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

463 
FZAK62 PAFC 112353
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121300-
353 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 984 MB LOW NEAR 56N 177E
WEAKENS TO 990 MB NEAR 56N 166W FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 56N
158W AT 992 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
353 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. S OF 56N...NW WIND 30
TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 25
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ412-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
353 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
353 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-121300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
353 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N OF 57N...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. S OF 57N...SW WIND
15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

363 
FZAK62 PAFC 121146
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130045-
346 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 MB LOW AT 56N 174W MOVES TO 55N 153W AT 994 MB BY SUN
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-130045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ412-130045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-130045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-130045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A closed upper low is slowly weakening over the Kuskokwim Delta
this morning, yielding what has become a familiar wet pattern for
mainland Alaska beneath broad cyclonic flow in the presence of a
rather diffuse longwave trough which now extends over much of the
region from a low centered over the north pole. Precipitation has
transitioned from steady rain to a more showery regime across
southcentral AK in the wake of a shortwave trough lifting
northward through the area. Precipitation has also become more
convective in nature across the southwest mainland as instability
is enhanced by the cold core upper low. Meanwhile, low stratus and
fog continue to dominate much of the Bering beneath weak high
pressure, although a swath of rain is beginning to spread over the
western Aleutians as an upper level wave pushes off of the
Kamchatka coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in strong synoptic agreement through mid week as
the Kuskokwim Delta low continues to weaken into an open trough
encompassing most of the region, with re-enforcement by the upper
wave currently entering the western Bering. This will keep the
cool and showery pattern in place in the coming days. Mainly
utilized the NAM for its enhanced resolution of small scale
features given the good synoptic agreement.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Moist southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the area into
Wednesday night as an upper level low remains over western Alaska.
A series of weak short-waves will rotate through south central
Alaska, with no major forcing mechanisms through Wednesday. This
will lead to a showery regime with less precipitation than has
been the case for the last few days. On Wednesday night the upper
low will become negatively tilted and a strong short-wave will
rotate around the base of that low and move towards south central.
The flow aloft will become southerly and showers will become more
numerous along the Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A vertically stacked low now pushing into the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley will continue to weaken and drift northeast through this
evening, keeping cooler and showery conditions over the region.
Instability will remain present over the area, but given weaker
forcing today, the threat of thunderstorms will remain very
isolated. However, we should still see some enhanced rain showers
developing in the afternoon/evening hours through Wednesday. The
system will weaken by Wednesday with decreasing showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A low off the eastern coast of the Kamchatka peninsula and it's
associated warm front pushing into the Western Bering and
Aleutians this morning will quickly progress eastward through the
Central Aleutians/Bering by tonight. This system will then weaken
and move east to the Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday morning. The
main impact will be widespread rain and increasing south to
southwest 15 to 30 knot winds along parts of the Bering Sea and
the Aleutian chain as the low makes eastward progress before it
weakens. The remnants of Tropical Storm Omais will move into the
far Western Bering and Aleutians Wednesday afternoon, bringing
more rain and gale force winds to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

For day 3 (Thu)

Models agree that the upper level trough over western Ak will
slowly weaken through Thu. This will allow shower activity to
diminish in intensity over the mainland as surface high pressure
builds. The next low entering the western Bering will move inland
near Bristol Bay early on Sat, with a triple point low developing
during the day near Kodiak island. This system will bring gale
force and small craft winds to much of the Bering and Aleutians.
Since the low has tropical origins and a long fetch it will also
bring significant seas to the western end of the chain, which will
steadily subside as the system moves east. It will also bring
abundant rainfall to the mainland. The low will then slowly weaken
in the Gulf through the weekend. High pressure will build across
the Bering into early next week as the low makes its way into the
Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DS