Gale Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

198 
FZAK52 PAFC 061229
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070115-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 949 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 240 NM W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 960 MB THU AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN RUSSIA LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-070115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS 10
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ155-070115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 24 FT EXCEPT 12 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23
FT EXCEPT 15 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-070115-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ165-070115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT SE 35 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-070115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-070115-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-070115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-070115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS
20 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-070115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT BUILDING TO 33 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-070115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-070115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28
FT. W OF ATKA...E 15 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-070115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
W OF 180.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-070115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 12 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-070115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-070115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-070115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-070115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
456 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN OMEGA BLOCK ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN MAINLAND CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
STATE UNDER A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST AND BERING SEA. THIS WEATHER IS
ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS ROTATING AROUND IT
THROUGHOUT THE BERING. TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW UNDER A 100 KT JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTH MAINLAND CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A FRONT UNDER THIS JET CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN
OR WET SNOW TO THE GULF COAST...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH GAP
WIND AREAS. THIS FRONT IS HOWEVER WEAKENING THE JET STREAK MOVES
TO THE NORTH AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM THE
EAST. OUTSIDE OF THE AOR A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW CENTERED
WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...IS MOVING TO THE EAST UNDER THE
BROAD BERING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING TODAY...AND
BECOME THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE BERING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DISSIPATION OF
THE OF A SERIES OF LOWS OVER THE BERING THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
FOCUS IS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT. THEY ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUT ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY THE STRONGEST AND QUICKEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE EC AND NAM HAVE BEEN EQUALLY CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND WEAKER LOW. WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM
WAS MOSTLY USED TODAY TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS TO WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IF THE
MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER. MODEL AGREEMENT THEN BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN FURTHER LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ANOTHER IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE AKPEN ON FRIDAY. AGREEMENT
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS MUCH LESS...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE QUICKLY BEGINS TO FALL BY LATE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KENAI
PENINSULA/SUSITNA VALLEY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST
TODAY. RIDING BUILDS EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN). THE BUILDING MAINLAND RIDGE IN
COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING OVER THE GULF WILL GIVE RISE TO OUTFLOW
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST/EASTERN KENAI LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO WED AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN MOST AREAS BY
WED EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND SUPPORTING UPPER FLOW
ENDS. A WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT WILL
BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND KENAI PEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A TROUGH FROM A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING IS PUSHING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.
THIS RESULTS IN RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY SNOW NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST LATER TODAY
AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DIMINISH. DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL THEN MOVE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A NEW LOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE BERING. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AWAY AND ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES COOL CLOSER TO
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN OF WESTERLY FLOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO
FINALLY BREAK LATER TODAY AS A STRENGTHENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER AND AS ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND INTO THE BERING IT WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A STRONG
CORE OF WINDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THAT COULD APPROACH WARNING
LEVELS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT WARM AIR AND PLENTIFUL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE LAST WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE
STORM TRACK IS GOING TO KEEP MODERATE OR PERHAPS EVEN STRONG
INTENSITY STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING. THE BERING/ALEUTIAN BASIN WILL BEAR
THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SEE MULTIPLE BUT RELATIVELY MINOR ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY RAIN) DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
STAYING MAINLY LONG THE COAST. FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SMALL BUT
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE FROM LAST WEEKS PATTERN IS THAT THE JET
STREAM MOVING UP INTO THE STATE IS GOING TO BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN IT WAS LAST WEEK (WHEN IT WAS NEARLY FROM THE
DUE SOUTH). THIS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF COOK INLET...KEEPING THE MAIN POPULATION CENTERS
DRIER AND A BIT COOLER. THE GULF COAST...WHICH HAS SEEN A
RELENTLESS SEQUENCE OF STORMS LATELY...WILL CATCH A BREAK FOR A
FEW DAYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BEFORE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND.

WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THEY
DISAGREE ON SOME SUBSTANTIAL TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON
SOME MAJOR SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA. THE GFS BRINGS SEVERAL STRONG STORMS
THROUGH THE AKPEN/SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME-FRAME...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND DOES NOT EVEN AGREE WITH THE GFS ON
THE NUMBER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS POINT NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING
LEVELS OF WIND OR PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155 170 171 172 173 174 175 177 179.
 GALE WARNING 119 130 131 138 150 165 176 178 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...AD
TP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1208 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

AKZ121-061800-
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
1208 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...MINOR FLOODING ON THE ANCHOR RIVER NEAR ANCHOR POINT ALONG
BEACH ACCESS ROAD...

AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE ANCHOR RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE OLD STERLING HIGHWAY BRIDGE. HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED WATER LEVELS TO RISE TO THE POINT THAT WATER
IS AGAIN FLOWING OVER BEACH ACCESS ROAD (ALSO KNOWN AS ANCHOR
POINT ROAD). WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THE RIVER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON
AND NO LONGER IMPACT BEACH ACCESS ROAD.

CAMPGROUNDS AND OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH OF BEACH ACCESS ROAD MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE WATER FROM THE RIVER MOVING THROUGH UNTIL THE ICE
JAM RELEASES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IF NECESSARY.