Gale Warning 407, NWS Anchorage, AK

523 
FZAK52 PAFC 201139
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210100-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR BECOMES A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 60 NM NORTHWEST OF GAMBELL LATE FRI
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA BY SAT NIGHT. A 1001 MB LOW 210 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT
PAUL WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT. A 1006 MB LOW
240 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 190 NM SOUTH OF ATKA AT 1013
MB LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-210100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-210100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-210100-
BRISTOL BAY-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING BECOMING W.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-210100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-210100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-210100-
UNALASKA BAY-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-210100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-210100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-210100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-210100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-210100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-210100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-210100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-210100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-210100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-210100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-210100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
339 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main low over the area sits over the Northern Bering and is
slowly moving to the west. Ridging is also building in over the
Gulf and these two features are allowing for southerly flow over
much of the Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Another low is
approaching the AK Pen from the North Pacific and cloud cover from
this new system is already moving in over the AK Pen. This low is
also bringing up another push of warm air from the south.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The EC, GFS, and GEM are all in good agreement through the mid
term allowing for above average confidence with the approach of
the North Pacific low into Friday. The 00Z NAM was significantly
slower than the other models and kept a more southerly track and
was not preferred. However, the 06Z NAM is in much better
agreement with the other guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A front entering the southwestern Gulf will slowly move north and
east through tonight. Rain is expected to only reach the southern
tip of the Kenai by late afternoon, however a chance for
showers just north of this system will be possible during the
afternoon as a weak short wave moves up from the western Gulf.
Light afternoon seabreezes develop this afternoon as the front
stays to the south. The front picks up a northerly pace early
evening with a trough axis swinging across the central Gulf. This
will bring a favorable set up for increased winds across channeled
terrain of Turnagain Arm and Knik River valley and also along the
Copper River. This flow regime downslopes west facing slopes late
evening, however rain chances increase overnight as a second
stronger wave moves up from the western Gulf.

The upper level jet stream continues to bring abundant moisture
into Southcentral through Friday night. The upper level low lifts
north late Friday which keeps higher rain chances across
Southcentral and the Gulf into early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The large, vertically stacked low sitting over the Northern
Bering will keep cool and cloudy conditions over the southwest
mainland today in deep onshore flow, with periods of rain over
the Kuskokwim Delta as an embedded disturbance clips the coast.
Rain will then begin to push into the Bristol Bay region late this
afternoon as an elongated warm front begins to approach the
region from the North Pacific. This will signal the start of a
prolonged period of stratiform rain, with the wet pattern lasting
into the weekend as a surface low rides northward along the front
and a SW-NE oriented jet streak provides strong upper level
support.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The most active weather will remain confined to the Alaska
Peninsula for the next several days as the front and associated
surface low track northward into Bristol Bay through early
Saturday. Otherwise, fairly quiet weather will persist over the
rest of the Bering beneath the large upper low centered near
Saint Matthew Island, with a few showers across central portions
of the Bering and low stratus and fog over the western offshore
waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Starting in the Friday evening time frame, a vertically stacked
North Pacific low just south of Sand Point will track
northeastward up the western flank of the ridge and over Kodiak
Island by Saturday. This feature will start to push the ridging
over the gulf further eastward over the Eastern Gulf by Saturday
afternoon. The second in a series of fronts associated with this
weakening North Pacific low will track over Kodiak Island and the
western Gulf Friday night, then push northeastward into the
northern Gulf coast and Southern Mainland by Saturday morning.
This will bring another round of steady rain to much of the Gulf
Coast and Southern Mainland through Saturday night. Models
continue to struggle with the overall track and timing of these
systems, as it tracks northward through the Gulf and into the
Southern Mainland. The NAM was the outlier today being the
slowest solution, where the EC and Canadian models started to
trend toward the preferred GFS's faster and more northerly
solution.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will stay clear of
significant large-scale weather systems through the middle of next
week. The only exception will be the Eastern Bering/Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula that will receive some winds and rainfall from
the above mentioned systems tracking in from the North Pacific
Friday night through Saturday morning. In general, this means the
area will experience typical warm-season conditions such as calm
winds, widespread low-clouds, and some foggy conditions over the
bering and Southwest coast. The models are slowly coming into
better agreement with high pressure building over the eastern
Bering/Aleutians and Southwestern Mainland over the weekend, then
shifting and strengthening over the Central and Eastern
Bering/Aleutians and into the beginning by Wednesday. Models are
also struggling with the next low/front tracking in from the west
over the western aleutians by mid week. Given the continued model
differences regarding these systems and overall pattern, forecast
confidence remains low through out the long term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...dk
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...kh
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...cb
LONG TERM...tp