Gale Warning 394, NWS Anchorage, AK

801 
FZAK52 PAFC 042247
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051130-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A FRONT ENTERS ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY THU MORNING AND STALLS
THROUGH LATE THU. A NEW FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU
AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRI.

$$

PKZ150-051130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT S 25 KT S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051130-
BRISTOL BAY-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS
7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051130-
UNALASKA BAY-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
247 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF
FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND W.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN JUST OFF THE
KENAI PENINSULA. IT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE TYPICAL GAPS...KNIK ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY.
IT IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LIMITING
INSTABILITY AND A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN...IT
WILL BE A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO GET THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRIKE IN SOME OF THE CLEARER AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST AK.

FURTHER WEST...A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS IS SWINGING A WEAK OCCLUSION INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...A MUCH MORE
MERIDIONAL 135 KT JET IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A NEW SURFACE LOW
TO DEVELOP. THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT MAKING FOR MODERATE
TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ONE SMALL DIFFERENCE OVER SW AK IS
HOW FAR INLAND THE ALEUTIAN LOW TRACKS AND HOW THAT WILL IMPACT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS WAS FAVORED OUT THERE DUE TO ITS
CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IN THE EAST...THERE
IS NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT THAT SWINGS UP THROUGH THE
GULF ON THU. THE EC...AND EVEN MORE SO THE GEM...ARE QUITE A BIT
FASTER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE AMERICAN MODELS. THE
AMERICAN MODELS HAVE BEEN PREFERRED FOR CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. SO THIS PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A
NAM/GFS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z ANCHORAGE TAF...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE AN ISSUE TODAY INTO EARLY WED. TIMING OF THE WINDS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT (BY AN HOUR OR TWO) FROM MON AS WE ARE WAITING
FOR A THERMAL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY. BUT THE
STRENGTH SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WINDS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DOWN INLET
GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE WINDS OUT
OVER THE ARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL OPEN INTO A DIFFUSE TROUGH
AND HEAD INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN
THE CASE...WITH A FAIRLY UNIFORM WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
THERE IS NO REAL PREFERRED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS. USED A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH IN FORECASTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF TONIGHT AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS LOOKS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE GULF.
THUS...EXPECT AREA AND INTENSITY OF RAIN TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT
AND TROUGH REACH THE NORTHERN GULF. THE TROUGH WILL THEN ELONGATE
AND WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INLAND...SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO OF NOTE...GUIDANCE NOW ALL HINTS AT A WEAK LOW FORMING
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW DOWN COOK INLET. BASED ON THIS HAVE COMPLETELY REMOVED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM ANCHORAGE PROPER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
MARGINALLY WEAKER GAP WINDS THROUGH THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY COMPARED
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR QUITE A WHILE....WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG WARM FRONT (ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST) MOVES INTO THE GULF AND APPROACHES SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF ON THURSDAY. WITH
THE CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT MOISTURE TO MAKE IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE STARTED TO TREND HIGHER WITH
POPS...THOUGH IF THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT MAY NEED TO GO QUITE A BIT HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. INDICES ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CAP. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BUT REDUCE THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE SHOWING THIS
SCENARIO FOR TODAY LEADING TO A REDUCED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SAME PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHES EAST INTO THE
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. AS THAT LOW EXITS
TO THE EAST RIDGING MOVES IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
MORNING DRYING OUT THE AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY TWO NEW LOWS MOVE
INTO THE AREA. ONE WILL FOLLOW THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND BRING RAIN
TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE OTHER WILL BRING ITS FRONT TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE BIG PICTURE MOVING FORWARD IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE MORE
DYNAMIC THAN WE HAVE SEEN IT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A
STRONGER NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE COMPLEX BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE GULF OF AK ON
THU AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON FRI...PULLING UP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF AND BRING MODERATE RAIN TO
THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ESPECIALLY THE BARRIER JET REGION. IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INLAND...AS THIS
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID DOWN-SLOPING SCENARIO WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF
THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. THE LOW THEN QUICKLY EXITS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING SOME RIDGING IN PLACE. ANOTHER
LOW QUICKLY MOVES IN TO THE BERING SEA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE MAINLAND.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE SERIES OF LOWS
PUSHING OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING
LATER IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH HOW FAR EAST THESE SYSTEMS WOULD PROGRESS...BUT
WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS THEY HAVE ALL BACKED OFF TOWARD A
SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE NOW SHOWING A
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS BUILDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER FOR GULF COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 130 131.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PEPE