Gale Warning 323, NWS Anchorage, AK

068 
FZAK61 PAFC 291209
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
409 AM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-300200-
409 AM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND REACHES
THE NORTH GULF COAST EARLY SAT. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO
54N 154W AT 984 MB...THEN DRIFTS TO 57N 152W SAT NIGHT AND WEAKENS
TO 997 MB.

$$

PKZ351-300200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
409 AM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-300200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
409 AM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

863 
FZAK61 PAFC 292257
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-301300-
257 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND MOVES
INLAND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BY SAT EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
980 MB LOW NEAR 46N 159W WEAKENS TO A BROAD AND COMPLEX 991 MB
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF SAT AFTERNOON...THEN REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING TO 1000 MB THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-301300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
257 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING E 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-301300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
257 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

954 
FZAK61 PAFC 301212
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010145-
412 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATER THIS
MORNING AND WEAKENS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED 982
MB LOW NEAR 54N 154W DRIFTS TO 57N 151W LATE SUN NIGHT AT 1001 MB.

$$

PKZ351-010145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
412 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-010145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
412 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

020 
FZAK61 PAFC 302300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011330-
300 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE GULF MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED 986 MB LOW NEAR 56N 152W MOVES TO 58N 150W AND
WEAKENS TO 1005 MB MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-011330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-011330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
456 AM AKDT THU APR 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC REMAIN IN A PATTERN DOMINATED BY A
BROAD TROUGH WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGES LOCATED ALONG JAPAN AND
THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA BETWEEN 35-40N WITH MULTIPLE JET MAXIMA OF AROUND
140-150KT /AS SUPPORTED BY AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS/ WEST OF 170E.

EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGH IS A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW ROUGHLY
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW ARE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES...BRINGING SHOWERY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN COAST AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE DOMINATE LOW IS A WEAKENING 979 MB LOW
CENTERED UNDER THE UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA. A
990 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. A 999 MB
LOW NEAR 41N 175E IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITH EXCELLENT JET SUPPORT
AS IT DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF ONE OF THE JET MAXIMA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODELS ON THE 00Z CYCLE ALL INITIALIZED WELL WITH FEW
DIFFERENCES IN HANDING THE DOMINATE FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE NAM WAS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE EAST AND
WEST FORECAST DOMAINS WITH A TRANSITION TO THE GFS BY THE END OF
DAY 2 IN THE BERING SEA FOR ITS HANDING OF A FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION AT THE END OF DAY 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A 990 MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND PUSHES A FRONT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS WEST
ACROSS KODIAK TO BRISTOL BAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA WILL KEEP WINDS UP
ALONG PORTAGE AND THE TURNAGAIN ARM OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUSTAINING ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF AND SURROUNDING COASTS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COPPER RIVER AND SUSITNA VALLEYS WILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DIMINISHES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
MAX GALE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS AS MOVES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND AN ASSOCIATED STALLED
AND WEAKENING FRONT WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL
PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
THREATS FAVORING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY...AND BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW
WEAKENS...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS SPRING CONTINUES ON UNABATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PRODUCER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST...RESULTING IN DECREASING
SHOWERS AND RAIN AND LARGELY QUIESCENT WEATHER FOR THE BERING
SEA. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE BERING
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CHAIN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME OVER THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE
A WEATHER FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC
FEATURE WILL BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL TRACK
INTO THE WESTERN CHAIN BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE
CHAIN HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST
OF UNALASKA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE A NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET STREAM OVER THE GULF BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TRACKS TO THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN STORM FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE BARREN ISLAND REGION AND THE UPPER
SHELIKOF STRAIT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE.
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATED WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RLF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...PD