Gale Warning 317, NWS Anchorage, AK

393 
FZAK62 PAFC 171132
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180130-
332 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 53N 172E WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING NEAR 52N
179E. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH MON NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING 984 MB LOW NEAR 55N 175W WILL MOVE TO 56N 169E AT 987
MB BY MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-180130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
332 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 15 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-180130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
332 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-180130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
332 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-180130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
332 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

860 
FZAK62 PAFC 172254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
254 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181345-
254 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 MB LOW AT 56N 175W MOVES TO 56N 168E AT 989 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY TUE AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 48N 167E
AT 996 MB MON NIGHT THEN CONTINUES TO 48N 175W AT 984 MB TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
254 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT NE 25 KT NORTH OF 57N.
SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S TO E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-181345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 10 TO 25 KT BY LATE
EVENING. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-181345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-181345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
254 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT S
OF 56N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 AM AKDT SAT APR 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF
AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO A WEAKENING
FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SHOWERS PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE COOK INLET REGION. EXCEPT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WAS GENERALLY DRY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW (NORTHERLY).
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
(ASCAT) FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWED SOLID GALES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
AND PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER..THE MODELS BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FINER DETAILS
REGARDING THE LARGE LOW OUT WEST BY THE START OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM WAS OVERALL THE BEST CHOICE FOR BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST DOMAINS IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...A GFS/NAM SOLUTION WAS USED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW TRACK OUT WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST INTO SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY
BREAK APART TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AS SOME
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN A REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE APPROACHING BERING SYSTEM AND THE
WEAKENING GULF LOW. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO TOUCH OFF A
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON SUNDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
YUKON DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL CLEAR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATER THIS MORNING AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO HIGH END GALES. PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOW CENTER
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN A
SHOWERY REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
WE WILL SEE A FAMILIAR PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING AND RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN
AREAS AROUND THE BERING AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN BUT ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE INDIVIDUAL LOWS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL PLAY A
FACTOR FOR WHEN STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DK