Gale Warning 309, NWS Anchorage, AK

761 
FZAK62 PAFC 082310
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091315-
310 PM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 52N 169W MOVES TO 55N 170W AT 984 MB SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 57N 173W AT 985 MB SUN AFTERNOON. A 991
MB LOW NEAR 52N 155W THIS EVENING MOVES TO 59N 158W AT 989 MB SAT
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 63N 170W AT 992 MB SAT NIGHT...THEN
BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

$$

PKZ411-091315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 PM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 PM AKDT FRI APR 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

189 
FZAK62 PAFC 091134
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKDT SAT APR 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100115-
334 AM AKDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 54N 169W MOVES TO 56N 170W AT 984 MB LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 58N 175W AT 990 MB LATE SUN. A 989 MB LOW
NEAR 56N 156W MOVES TO 62N 168W TONIGHT AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH...THEN
MOVES TO 63N 175W SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ411-100115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
334 AM AKDT SAT APR 9 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-100115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKDT SAT APR 9 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-100115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKDT SAT APR 9 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ414-100115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
334 AM AKDT SAT APR 9 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING AN AXIS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A COOLER AIR MASS INLAND IS BRINGING STEADY
SHOWERS EAST OF GLENNALLEN WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN INLAND. WEST OF VALDEZ...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE BERING LOCATIONS...LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS WIDESPREAD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BRINGING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BERING. THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO WATCH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING A WARM FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THE LOW CENTER
JUST SOUTH OF ADAK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFERENCES INCREASING ON
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES AT A FAST PACE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. THE
NAM AND HIRES MODELS WERE UTILIZED TO CAPTURE WIND GUSTS FOR
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND WITH A BLEND OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WITH TRENDS FOR THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION SLOWED ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE MIDDLETON RADAR IMAGERY IS
ALREADY SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE
WESTERN KENAI WILL DOWNSLOPE OUT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD AS THE LOW PRESSURE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER CAPE SUCKLING AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL FALL
APART AS IT MOVES INLAND BEFORE REFORMING IN THE YUKON TERRITORY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE
IT TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL BUT WILL TAPER-OFF AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX...WITH RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO RAIN/SNOW AS MOISTURE MOVES INLAND. LOOK FOR ALL SNOW ALONG THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS...THOMPSON PASS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF GLENNALLEN. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION. THIS WILL RAMP UP
THE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE TURNAGAIN ARM REGION RESULTING IN STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LIFTS NORTH AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS STABILIZING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ON FRIDAY FOR A BRIEF DRIER BREAK AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN LIFT NORTH
AND SPREAD FURTHER INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECOND FRONTAL WAVE
TRACKING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY CONTINUING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BERING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK WAVE
NEAR THE PRIBILOFS DRIFTS WEST. MEANWHILE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO
THE BERING AND BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY REACHING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY WHILE THE PRIBILOFS ARE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF THE FRONT PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN
FRIDAY EVENING BUT CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING A TOUCH TOO
WARM FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OR BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS AROUND THE BERING AND THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE NEXT BIG CHALLENGE IS A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODELS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. THE OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS FOR THE LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 960S LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT
WHETHER IT WILL TRACK INTO THE BERING OR STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THE EC HAS BEEN BY FAR THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IS KEEPING IT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. IF THINGS STAY ON
TRACK THE LOW COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 125 130 131 155 165 170 172 174
                    176 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK