Gale Warning 227, NWS Anchorage, AK

006 
FZAK62 PAFC 151151
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 AM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160215-
351 AM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 55N 168W MOVES TO 52N 166W AT 1007 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WED
MORNING. A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WED AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 52N 167E AT 969 MB WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
351 AM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
351 AM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF
176W.
.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
351 AM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
351 AM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

408 
FZAK62 PAFC 152308
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
308 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161430-
308 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS YIELDS TO 
A 952 MB LOW AT 49N 156E TONIGHT. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 52N 168E
AS A 972 MB LOW WED AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO 57N 163E AT 987
MB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
308 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
308 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
E OF 175W.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
308 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
308 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

880 
FZAK62 PAFC 161138
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170215-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 958 MB LOW NEAR 49N 162E MOVES TO 54N 170E AT 980 MB TONIGHT THEN
EXITS TO THE NORTHWEST THU NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. A 1007 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 50N 179E THU NIGHT. A WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-170215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-170215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF
176W.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E
OF 173W.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-170215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-170215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

283 
FZAK62 PAFC 162254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
254 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171300-
254 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 976 MB LOW NEAR 51N 169E WILL MOVE TO 54N 171E AT 984 MB WED
NIGHT THEN EXIT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THU. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. A 1009 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 49N 175E THU EVENING WILL 
TRACK TO 52N 178E FRI AFTERNOON AT 1001 MB.

$$

PKZ411-171300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
254 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-171300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-171300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-171300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
254 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

127 
FZAK62 PAFC 171111
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180100-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 54N 171E MOVES TO 57N 164E AT 998 MB THU NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS NEAR 50N 179E AT 1008 MB SOUTH OF SHEMYA
FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO 50N 176W AT 1004 MB SAT MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SAT MIDDAY.

$$

PKZ411-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-180100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
311 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 58N IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE ALASKA MAINLAND TODAY...WITH
A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE THAT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM CANADA INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH HAS KEPT
THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND MAINLY FOG FREE. MEANWHILE A LOW
SPINNING NEAR THE PRIBILOFS HAS BEEN SUPPORTING STEADY SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN NORTH CENTRAL ALASKA...INITIATES A PATTERN CHANGE AS IT DIVES
TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL BY EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
AS A RESULT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL (WEST OF
COPPER RIVER BASIN) TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER WESTERN
ALASKA AND SETS UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANGES AT THIS POINT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY (TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A
COMBINATION OF INSENTROPIC LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT VALLEY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A NARROW BAND OF LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AND MAT VALLEY LOOKS TO BE TUE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE WEST WITH INCREASING UPPER JET SUPPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
SFC INVERSION WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN JUST A TOUCH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR
WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WESTERN CAPES OF ALASKA COULD HAVE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING DROPS SOUTH TOWARD
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THERE WILL BE A FEED OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL BE DESCENDING UPON SOUTHWEST ALASKA STARTING TONIGHT. BELIEVE
IT OR NOT...TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS HAS BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND A STUBBORN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW JUST HANGING AROUND. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL AMPLIFY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE BERING SEA BY LATE TUESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE SUPPRESSED WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME WIDESPREAD FOG.
MODELS SURPRISINGLY ARE NOT BEING AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FOG ALTHOUGH
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS PRESENT AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. ON
TUESDAY EVENING...A LOW WILL MOVE NEAR KAMCHATKA WHILE IT
STRENGTHENS TO A SUB 950 MB LOW. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LOOKS TO BRING A SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS. TYPICALLY
A LOW AS FAR WEST AS THIS ONE DOES NOT TEND TO BRING STORM FORCE
FRONTS TO THE BERING SEA...HOWEVER THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL CREATE A VERY COMPACT GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE MID TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE IN HANDLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE COOK INLET AND MAT-SU REGIONS INCLUDING THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL. STAYED WITH A FAIRLY GENERALIZED FORECAST OF A
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO REFLECT THE LOWER
MODEL CONFIDENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GUIDANCE OVER THE
COMING DAYS AS SMALL SCALE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THE GFS DEPICTS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTH SLOPE AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHEREAS EUROPEAN GUIDANCE KEEPS A
CONSOLIDATED UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND FORCES
THE RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY REGIME. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TERM IS BELOW AVERAGE.

MEANWHILE...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONG FRONT ENTERING
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE START OF
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE BERING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARE REPLACED BY WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CB