Gale Warning 218, NWS Anchorage, AK

895 
FZAK61 PAFC 090002
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091430-
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DECAYING FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. A 969 MB LOW AT 51N 145W MOVES TO 56N 146W AS A 976 MB
CENTER THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
405 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IS SPREADING CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL. AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE GULF
FROM THE SOUTH NORTHWARDS...IT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS ALONG THE
GULF OF ALASKA COAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE SUPPLY
AVAILABLE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. A
MUCH MORE COHERENT LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS SURGING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA...AND IS POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OVER THE OCEAN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.
HOWEVER...THEY ARE NOT CAPTURING THE CURRENT SHOWERS ALONG THE
GULF COAST DUE TO THEIR WEAK FORCING. AS A RESULT...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
GULF AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT INLAND AS FAR NORTH AS
ANCHORAGE. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF
COAST TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
MAINLY RAIN BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA COULD SEE
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE THOMPSON PASS COULD SEE UPWARDS TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG (966 MB) LOW
WILL BE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF/EXTREME
NORTHERN PACIFIC TUESDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW WINDS LOOK LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY AS EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN HINTS AT A
MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS OF A GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE NOT AS STRONG OF WINDS. THE SOUTHERN GULF CAN EXPECT TO
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
BEGINS TO WEAKEN BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER EACH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD
TO SOME VERY PLEASANT DAYS. NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE WHICH MEANS THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
INTERIOR BEFORE ENTERING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGES. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE BRISTOL BAY AND
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN UNDER A
SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. BY TUESDAY MORNING A
WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A STORM FORCE LOW DROPPING
DOWN OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN BERING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN POLAR JET
TRANSITIONING FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THEN THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN
ALASKA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND IN THE BERING SEA AS THE STORM TRACK DIVES SOUTH. BY
THE WEEKEND...THE GULF LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH...BRINGING
IN A PERIOD OF RATHER QUIESCENT WEATHER TO SOUTHCENTRAL...AN THIS
MAY LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE REBUILDS
AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAM STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
REGION. IN OTHER WORDS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE
MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 352. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA