Gale Warning 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

548 
FZAK51 PAFC 111219
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120130-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MOVES TO 50 NM EAST OF
CHIGNIK AT 992 MB LATE THU NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. A 987 MB LOW
475 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THU EVENING MOVES TO 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 986 MB LATE THU NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO
25 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 990 MB FRI NIGHT...THEN BECOMES A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

$$

PKZ119-120130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-120130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-120130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-120130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-120130-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-120130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-120130-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-120130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-120130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-120130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-120130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-120130-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-120130-
MARMOT BAY-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-120130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-120130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-120130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING
TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-120130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

817 
FZAK51 PAFC 120032
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121330-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW NEAR SITKINAK DRIFTS TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK
AT 990 MB EARLY FRI...THEN DISSIPATES. A 987 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO 140 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 988 MB
FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES. A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPS 340 NM SOUTH
OF SITKINAK LATE FRI NIGHT AND MOVES TO 150 NM EAST OF SITKINAK AT
987 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-121330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-121330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-121330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-121330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-121330-
PORT VALDEZ-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-121330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-121330-
VALDEZ ARM-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-121330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-121330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-121330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-121330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-121330-
CHINIAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-121330-
MARMOT BAY-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-121330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-121330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-121330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-121330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
534 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD AND COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 46N 160W
CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...WITH A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
PRIMARY CENTER OF ACTION. THE MOST NOTABLE CURRENTLY HAS A 969 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 52N 156W AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOW MOVING WEST AND NORTH FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF TOWARD THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN BERING
REGION. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MAINLY SOLID GALES WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST
GULF...SHELIKOF STRAIT...AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW-END STORM-FORCE WINDS SOUTHWEST
OF KODIAK ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY...MIDDLETON ISLAND NEXRAD DEPICTS A
LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRAZE SOUTHERN ALASKA...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASED WINDS THROUGH THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
GAPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THOMPSON PASS...WHERE STRONG WINDS ARE
COMBINING WITH 8 INCHES OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW TO CREATE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW.

BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH 977 MB SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT FRONT IS PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE CURRENT
AND TRAILING SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW...HOWEVER
MINOR DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO ARISE BY FRIDAY WITH A THIRD AND
POTENTIALLY FOURTH SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DIFFERENCES ALSO BEGIN TO EMERGE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AT THIS TIME AS A BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING DISTURBANCES MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC TOWARD THIS AREA. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
UTILIZES MAINLY THE HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
SWINGING A COUPLE FRONTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE SOUTH.
THE FIRST IS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH GULF COAST BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL STAY ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGES. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL BREAK BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN KEEP RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST IS HELPING TO CAUSE
OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS. THOMPSON
PASS IS ONE OF THOSE GAPS AND WITH WINDS AND TRANSPORTABLE SNOW ON
THE GROUND...BLOWING SNOW IS A CONCERN THROUGH THE PASS. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LESSEN THE CONCERN FOR
BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS NEW SNOW FALLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE MID 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TO PRODUCE A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE
INLAND AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THERMAL DIFFERENCE TO CREATE SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH TODAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL CONFINED TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN RANGE.

ON THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER LOW WILL MAKE A TREK FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH. AS IT PUSHES ANOTHER PULSE OF WARM AIR UP AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INLAND...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP.
THIS FEATURE WILL SWING FROM THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE YK-
DELTA. IT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH...BUT
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND LOCATIONS EAST. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS FEATURE AS THE
FORECAST DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...THE LOW THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS YESTERDAY
IS BECOMING JUST A REMNANT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING. IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW NEAR THE AKPEN WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AS IT SLIPS TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR LATER
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...TO
IMPACT ALL OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ON
THE PACIFIC SIDE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE LOW STARTS TO FILL LATER
TONIGHT. BROAD SUB-GALE FORCE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE OVER ON
THURSDAY. ONE WEAK LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT LOOKS TO HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH
PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND SWITCH FROM A NEGATIVE
TILT TO A POSITIVE TILT AS THE JET ENERGY TRANSITIONS FROM THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE TROUGH TO THE EXIT REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
SEVERAL FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES PRETTY HIGH AS RAIN UPSLOPES ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THESE FRONT
SHOULD FALL APART ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON THE DRY SIDE. SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
BERING SEA WILL BE ON THE SHOWERY SIDE WITH NO STRONG FEATURES
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN MODELS START HINTING
AT A DECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REPLACING THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REASON FOR THE SHOWERY REGIME IS DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SUCH THAT IT IS
PREVENTING ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO BE
ABLE TO RE-CURVE INTO THE BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 131
MARINE...STORM 138
         GALE  119 120 127 130 131 132 139 150 155 160 165
               180 351 352
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...MC