Gale Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

351 
FZAK61 PAFC 201251
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 AM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210145-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 987 MB LOW NEAR 54N
156W WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A 967 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
TO 54N 147W AT 974 MB THU MORNING THEN TO 57N 145W AT 980 MB LATE
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-210145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 12 TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-210145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

142 
FZAK61 PAFC 210016
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211515-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 968 MB LOW AT 49N 146W WILL BE A 974 MB LOW AT 54N 148W THU
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 987 MB LOW AT 58N 146W FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-211515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 12 TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-211515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

879 
FZAK61 PAFC 211259
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220145-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 970 MB LOW NEAR 52N
145W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 146W AT 984 MB FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE
TO NEAR 58N 149W AT 990 MB AND DISSIPATE LATE FRI NIGHT. A 973 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N 158W EARLY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-220145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-220145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.

$$

798 
FZAK61 PAFC 220002
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221400-
302 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 55N 148W WILL MOVE TO 58N 150W FRI AFTERNOON AT
986 MB...THEN DISSIPATE LATE FRI NIGHT. A 975 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI AND MOVE TO 54N 154W AT 974 MB
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
302 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ352-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
302 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX SPRAWLING ACROSS THE GULF...SOUTHERN
BERING AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALASKA. CURRENTLY THE NORTHERN
TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA WITH WHAT HAD BEEN A
COMPACT SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INLAND. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP OFF AND WILL CONTINUE IN THAT TREND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. TO
THE EAST...THE NEXT LOW IS CURRENTLY WEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF FOLLOWING A SIMILAR BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS LOW.

OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT ROTATES EAST ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA. SHOWERS ALSO
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FURTHER
WEST...A LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH. NAM
PREFERRED IN BOTH DOMAINS FOR ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RINSE AND REPEAT IS THE THEME BEHIND THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALL OF ALASKA.
WEAK CUT-OFF LOWS CONTINUE TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE JET (WHICH
CONTINUES TO DRIVE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE PAC NW) AND DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE BEFORE TURNING WEST AND
CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL. THE LOW THAT FOLLOWED THIS TRACK
YESTERDAY CAN STILL BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. A FEW COASTAL RAIN AND INLAND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER BEHIND THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING...BUT THEN SHOULD YIELD TO
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW HELPING TO MAKE FOR SOME DECENT SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE AREA. BY TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE NEARLY AN
IDENTICAL TRACK AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ON
WED MORNING. THIS WILL SPILL ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...THOMPSON
PASS...AND THE TURNAGAIN ARM. IT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION INTO COASTAL AREAS...WITH WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA POISED TO RECEIVE THE BULK
OF IT. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BUT
SHOULD TURN OVER TO RAIN AS THIS SYSTEM BRINGS UP ANOTHER POCKET
OF WARMER AIR. AND YES SADLY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SNOW LOVERS...IT
LOOKS LIKE CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MUCH OF THE
COOK INLET REGION MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THIS
IS CAUSED FROM THE PRECIPITATION SPILLING OVER FROM THE WESTERN
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH WIND CHILLS ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND THEN TAPER-OFF TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING. THE REST OF THE BERING WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND MORE EASTERLY ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING A
STORM FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE SHEMYA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ACROSS THE GULF ON THURSDAY...AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CENTERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF. GUSTY GALE WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE MAINLAND...GUSTY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.

TO THE WEST...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES A FRONT INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. MAX GALE WINDS OUT THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT STARTS OUT AS SNOW FOR THE WESTERN A
HALF OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND THEN MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO
RAIN AS A WARMER AIR MASS PUSHES IN AND STALLS. THE FRONT
PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW...THEN DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT OUTRUNS THE LOW CENTER
WHICH REMAINS SOUTH OF SHEMYA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EASTERN BERING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGING SHIFTS AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WITH
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN CHAIN.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST ONE OR TWO STRENGTHENING TRIPLE POINT LOWS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE NORTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND/OR THE SOUTHEAST BERING SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS TO GALE-FORCE
WILL BE CONFINED TO STRONGER EMBEDDED LOWS WITHIN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 185.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...KH/CC