Gale Warning 141, NWS Anchorage, AK

714 
FZAK51 PAFC 050153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051415-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 964 MB LOW 25 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THU NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
DISSIPATES FRI MORNING. A 981 MB LOW 25 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT
HEIDEN FRI EVENING MOVES TO 25 NM NORTH OF KODIAK CITY AT 997 MB
SAT MORNING...THEN BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A STRONG
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-051415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051415-
PORT VALDEZ-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.TONIGHT... NE WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051415-
VALDEZ ARM-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR KENNEDY
ENTRANCE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
23 FT EXCEPT 16 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051415-
CHINIAK BAY-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051415-
MARMOT BAY-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
453 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING
BECOMING E 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

487 
FZAK51 PAFC 051235
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060115-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO 60 NM SOUTH OF
SEWARD AS A 999 MB LOW SAT AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-060115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-060115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-060115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-060115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-060115-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-060115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-060115-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-060115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-060115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-060115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-060115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-060115-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-060115-
MARMOT BAY-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-060115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-060115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-060115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-060115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 AM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

199 
FZAK51 PAFC 060020
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061300-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED 975 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK ISLAND ENTERS
THE SOUTHERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-061300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061300-
PORT VALDEZ-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061300-
VALDEZ ARM-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061300-
CHINIAK BAY-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061300-
MARMOT BAY-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
320 PM AKST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER THE POLAR REGION...CONTINUES TO KEEP A
RATHER PERSISTENT PATTERN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
BERING SEA. COLD ARCTIC AIR ORIGINATING FROM SIBERIA CONTINUES TO
FEED INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM THE WESTERN BERING...WITH SURGES
OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. THE RESULTANT UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...WITH A 960 HPA SURFACE
LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE...THE NEXT STRONG LOW FORMING ALONG THE LEFT EXIT OF THE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED NORTH PACIFIC JET IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE STORM FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE MERGING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING ALEUTIAN
LOW.

OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS IMPACTING
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. SOME OF THAT INSTABILITY IS ALSO SUPPORTING ENHANCED
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...COLD ARCTIC AIR IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS MUCH QUIETER AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING
(AIDED BY A NORTHERLY OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT) IS KEEPING THE
REGION DRY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HEADING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND THE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THEY DO DIFFER WITH SMALL
SCALE DETAILS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE BROAD BERING TROUGH
BREAKS APART INTO SEPARATE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WHILE
NOT HIGH IMPACT...AS THESE FEATURES MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA...THEY MAY SPARK OFF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES UP COOK INLET...AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. FOR
NOW...DUE TO A LACK OF DEFINITION AT THIS JUNCTURE OF ANY OF THESE
FEATURES...THE FORECAST FOR ANY POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER BROAD AND ON THE
LOWER END.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH TO THE GULF
COAST AT THE SAME TIME. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME BRIEF STORM
FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET JUST
BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. THE AIR MASS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
WARM AND MOIST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL NEAR THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...WITH JUST SOME SHOWERS GETTING
INLAND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST
WITH A MIX EXPECTED FOR THE INLAND SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND AND BREAK APART TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF THIS EVENING WILL PUSH NORTH TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
WORK ITS WAY UP THE KENAI PENINSULA AND COOK INLET ON FRIDAY...AND
PUSH ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND FURTHER INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME
IT REACHES ANCHORAGE IT IS FALLING APART...AND FORECAST POPS ARE
IN THE "CHANCE" RANGE FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND A DIMINISHING SURFACE LOW MAKE
LANDFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND BRISTOL BAY AREAS AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FOR INLAND
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW FAR
NORTHWEST INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF KOLIGANEK. THE STACKED LOW
NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA THEN BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...DRAGGING COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT AS IT DOES SO. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD
ADVECTION...RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE INTERIOR KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ZONE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK EASTERLY
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BERING AND WEAK WESTERLY DISTURBANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY FLOW
IS HELPING TO USHER COLD AIR INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EXTENDING EAST TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE RESULT IS PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL
BE SUSTAINED AND HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TRUE BLIZZARD.
HOWEVER...WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES -10C OR COLDER...NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH...AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN ISSUED. EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

OTHERWISE...NEARLY STATIONARY STACKED LOW PRESSURE AS MENTIONED
BEFORE NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING/NORTH
PACIFIC WITH RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE/YUKON TERRITORY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND WILL EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SATURDAY AS THE REGION
EXPERIENCES MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO THAT
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW HOWEVER WILL BE LOCATED
WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND...KEEPING MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL DRY
WITH DRY DOWN INLET AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS COOK INLET...HOWEVER WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF
THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 191.
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS 119 120 130.
         GALE WARNINGS 125 131 139 150 155 165 172 176 177 178.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1251 PM AKST THU FEB 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     SNOW             2 N HOMER               59.66N 151.52W
02/04/2016  E5.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING ON THE
            BLUFF.

&&

JPW