Gale Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

125 
FZAK61 PAFC 080009
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081415-
309 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 MB LOW NEAR 53N 153W MOVES TO 59N 165W AND WEAKENS TO 991 MB
MONDAY EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 49N 143W AT 977 MB
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-081415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
309 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
309 PM AKST SUN FEB 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

353 
FZAK61 PAFC 081225
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090215-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1003 MB LOW ENTERS THE GULF OF ALASKA NEAR 54N 140W LATE MON
MORNING AND MOVES TO 60N 143W TUE MORNING AS A 1010 MB LOW AND
DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ351-090215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
325 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

893 
FZAK61 PAFC 090039
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091445-
339 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 57N 140W WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN NEAR CAPE
FAIRWEATHER TONIGHT. A 973 MB LOW NEAR 50N 147W TUE AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO 52N 158W AT 975 MB WED AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL 
MOVE TO 53N 147W AT 977 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
339 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
339 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING E 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

169 
FZAK61 PAFC 091215
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100145-
315 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 970 MB LOW AT 51N 152W MOVES WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THU MORNING WEAKENING TO 982 MB. A 975
MB LOW ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 52N 146W AND MOVES TO 55N 149W AT 981
MB THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-100145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING E 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

483 
FZAK61 PAFC 100022
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101430-
322 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 50N 147W MOVES TO 52N 158W WED MORNING AT 970
MB...THEN EXITS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A 977 MB LOW ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR 53N 146W WED AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 57N 154W AT 990 MB
THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-101430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
322 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
322 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

239 
FZAK61 PAFC 101232
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110200-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW AT 53N 155W MOVES TO 53N 165W AT 986 MB AND
DISSIPATES FRI MORNING. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 52N 147W WED AFTERNOON
MOVES TO 56N 157W AT 990 MB BY FRI MORNING. A 977 MB LOW AROUND
52N 139W THU NIGHT MOVES TO 55N 141W FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-110200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
332 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 TO 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

442 
FZAK61 PAFC 110024
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
324 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-111415-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 52N 146W MOVES TO 56N 155W AT 990 MB BY THU
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES EARLY FRI. A 977 MB LOW NEAR 52N 141W THU
NIGHT MOVES TO 56N 143W FRI AFTERNOON AT 984 MB.

$$

PKZ351-111415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-111415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

936 
FZAK61 PAFC 111217
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-120230-
317 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 983 MB LOW NEAR 56N 149W MOVES TO 56N 158W AT 992 MB LATE THU
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 52N 142W THU EVENING
MOVES TO 55N 144W AT 986 MB LATE THU NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 58N
152W AT 990 MB FRI NIGHT...THEN BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

$$

PKZ351-120230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
317 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-120230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
317 AM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

$$

913 
FZAK61 PAFC 120016
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121400-
316 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 988 MB LOW NEAR 56N 155W DRIFTS TO 56N 158W AT 990 MB EARLY
FRI...THEN DISSIPATES. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 52N 142W MOVES TO 58N
148W AT 988 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES. A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR 51N 153W LATE FRI NIGHT AND MOVES TO 55N 148W AT 987 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
316 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
316 PM AKST THU FEB 11 2016

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
409 PM AKST SAT FEB 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS INTACT
ACROSS THE BERING...THUS KEEPING ANY COLD AIR OUTBREAKS LOCKED UP
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. WHILE THE JET STREAM FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE ZONAL
FLOW OF WEEKS PAST IS THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM PATTERN
IS FAR MORE MERIDIONAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE UPPER
LOW HAS HELPED DIG A TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE
MIDLATITUDES...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG THE 160W MERIDIAN. THIS HAS IN
TURN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ON BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST SIDES OF THE TROUGH. THE MORE NOTABLE RIDGE IS EAST OF
THE LOW...CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO FLOW NEARLY SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE. VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER CORRELATES WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A JET STREAK...HELPING INTENSIFY A STRONG FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER ON THE EAST SIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENTLY A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SUSITNA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS...THOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HAS RESULTED FROM IT. AN
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH IS KEEPING WET WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF AREAS AS
WELL.

ACROSS THE WEST... WEAK FEATURES REMAIN THE CAUSES OF LOCAL AREAS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE PUSHING NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING...WHILE THE WESTERN BERING REMAINS IN AN
UNSTABLE...SHOWERY...COLDER WEATHER REGIME. OTHER THAN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AFFECTING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA...ONLY
ONE OTHER STRONG FEATURE WILL DEVELOP. A VERY STRONG 180 KT JET
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL REORIENT INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...MAKING
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THAT AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE LARGELY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT
THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM FORCE FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF IS PEGGED NEARLY IDENTICALLY BY ALL
THE MODELS IN TERMS OF TIMING...WITH SOME SMALL DISCREPANCIES IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE THERE ARE ONLY SMALL FEATURES OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY. THESE ARE
USUALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS SO THE MORE
DETAILED GEM WAS USED. THE NAM...BEING ANOTHER HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODEL WAS NOT USED SINCE IT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
CONCERNING THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. THE OTHER CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING INTENSE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ABOUT A DAY
OR SO. THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER...HOWEVER SINCE THEY ARE
UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...ONLY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE
THROUGH THE CHAIN. THE DETAILS ON THAT ASPECT OF THE STORM ARE
LARGELY THE SAME.

ON THE EAST SIDE...A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/AND EC WERE USED TO BLEND
TOGETHER ANY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. FOR THE WEST
SIDE...THE EC WAS THE GLOBAL MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH THE GEM USED
FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM A SMALL SURFACE LOW OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST KENAI PENINSULA COAST AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND INLAND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS THE
STRONG WEATHER FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED PARENT SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AROUND 47N WILL WEAKEN AND FILL AS IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND CROSSING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY. AFTER BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WATERS INCLUDING SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND THE EASTERN BARRENS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND BRING SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A MATURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING A FRONT TOWARD THE
MAINLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. THERE IS
ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHERE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...ONE SWINGS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...THE
OTHER WILL JUST REACH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND GALE FORCE WITH THE MAIN LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
FAVORED DOWNSLOPING INLAND LOCATIONS. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING WILL TRACK
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING WHILE DISSIPATING TUESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
LOW ORGANIZES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING...AND
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STORM FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT MONDAY...WITH EQUALLY AS
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR
OFF EASTERN RUSSIA ADVECTS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO LOSE MOMENTUM BY
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHUNT PROGRESS OF THIS LOW AND ANOTHER LOW
TRACKING IN FROM THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREAS
SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE EC AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEMS ENTERING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THE FORECAST GOES. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 136 137 139 155 176 177.
		 STORM 131 132 138 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...TP