Gale Warning 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

659 
FZAK51 PAFC 010004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011245-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
MON MORNING AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TUE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 390 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT
956 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-011245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011245-
PORT VALDEZ-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011245-
VALDEZ ARM-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011245-
CHINIAK BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011245-
MARMOT BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOUTH END OF THE STRAIT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTH END OF THE STRAIT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT NORTH END OF THE STRAIT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 967 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTH
WHILE DEEPENING. A WEAK JET STREAK IS HELPING TO PUSH THE LOW
NORTH AND IS ALSO HELPING TO BRING WARMER AIR UP FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE WARMER AIR IS BRINGING RAIN TO AREAS AROUND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. TO THE EAST...RIDGING
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO
INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AWAY AND ALLOWED FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG FOR AREAS NEAR
LARGER BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL TRACK OF THE BERING LOW AS IT
PUSHES NORTH WITH THE AMERICAN GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
EC AND GEM. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT CAUSE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN
TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS WITH THE FORMATION OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT. THIS CHANGES THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH
WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER TRACK OF THE FRONT. THE FASTER SOLUTION
OF THE GFS AND EC WAS PREFERRED WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT TO KODIAK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA
DOES NOT LOOK AS DOMINANT AS IT DID IN PREVIOUS DAYS. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY MAKE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG A BIT LESS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN AROUND COOK INLET TONIGHT. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL
EXIST WHICH WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
BEFORE A FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY...THE FRONT LOOKED LIKE IT WAS GOING TO HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BECAUSE OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE BUT MODELS TODAY SUGGEST A MORE POTENT FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST AS WELL AS GALES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL ZONES. INTERIOR LOCATIONS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN WELL ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
PRECIPITATION BEING DOWNSLOPED BECAUSE OF DECENT CROSS BARRIER
FLOW DUE TO THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION. THE FRONT WILL ORIENT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIN GUSTS UPWARDS TO
40 MPH THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. NO BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED THERE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO
PUSH INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INLAND AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FACILITATES A GRADUAL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS
AND NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT...BRINGING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE EASTERN BERING BEFORE
MOVING OVER THE MAINLAND ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE FORM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY LATE MONDAY MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TO THE UPPER COOK INLET
REGION AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
ANY SNOW FOR ANCHORAGE AND NEARBY AREAS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD BE
EXTREMELY SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER IT DOES BEAR A CLOSE WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE AKPEN AND KODIAK FROM THE
SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSHES A FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A TRAIN OF SYSTEMS CONTINUES THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SETTING UP AN ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRECIPITATION-TYPE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS
FAR NORTH AS ANCHORAGE AT TIMES WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES. WINDS TO GALE-FORCE AND PERHAPS TO STORM-FORCE WITH
POTENTIAL BARRIER JET FORMATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NORTH GULF
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 131 132 137 150 155 160 165 173 174 175 176
              177 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...CC