Brisk Wind Advisory 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

292 
FZAK52 PAFC 152309
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161215-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC SAT AFTERNOON. A 974 MB LOW AT 53N 162E MOVES TO 55N 173W
AT 984 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE
ALEUTIANS TO THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-161215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161215-
BRISTOL BAY-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161215-
UNALASKA BAY-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BECOMING 1 FOOT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-161215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
309 PM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E
WIND 35 KT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 PM AKDT THU APR 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS IT WEAKENS. AN ATTENDANT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF HAS
NOW WEAKENED TO A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES NORTH AND WEST TOWARD THE COOK INLET
REGION. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS CENTERED FROM THE
ALASKA RANGE WEST TO THE EASTERN BERING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING IN
TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT SITUATED FROM THE WEST THROUGH NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BERING TO NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. THE LARGELY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ENVELOPS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN LOCKED IN ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SKIRTS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SEVERAL SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST UPPER WAVES WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND COOK INLET REGION INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
IN THE PROCESS. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING
BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE ALSO KEYING IN ON A SOLID GALE-
FORCE OR LOW-END STORM-FORCE FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST BERING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME
SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GENERAL THEME WILL
BE RIDGING TRYING TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WHILE A BROAD TROUGH OPENS UP OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH A FEW WEAK
PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST. ONE
SUCH WAVE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST AND SHOULD BRING RAIN
TO THOSE LOCATIONS STARTING THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WAVE WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE ANY INLAND PROGRESS. THE NEXT FRONT IS QUEUED UP
TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AREAS ON FRI. IT WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN AS IT STALLS THERE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FORMING FRI WITH
MORE INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE COOK INLET TO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN.

ON SAT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PICK UP WHAT'S LEFT OF
THAT FRONT AND HELP TO DRAG IT INLAND. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY INDICES ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SO WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
MOSTLY THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND MOST OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST OF THE BERING
SEA AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND THE RIDGE TRANSITS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE DEEPENING LOW NEAR
JAPAN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING WINDS TO STORM FORCE OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL REMAIN AS STRONG GALES
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
SPOTTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUT WEST...A BERING SEA FRONT WILL BE MOVING WEST TO EAST AS IT
STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT
WEEK....THE SAME TIRED PATTERN PLAYS OUT WITH A MODERATELY ACTIVE
EAST ASIAN JET WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL PROMOTE
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHICH WILL SEND
WEAKENING FRONTS INTO THE AREA WITH SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW
SYSTEM. GENERALLY BENIGN FLOW AND WEATHER WILL ENCOMPASS THE
SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BUT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 178.
         GALE 174 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...ML