Blizzard Watch 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

972 
WWAK41 PAFC 281303
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THOMPSON PASS...

.AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RATCHET UP WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. RECENT SNOWFALL WILL BE PICKED
UP AND LOFTED BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS. WHILE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...THE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE. THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE THE WORST OF CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...BLOWING SNOW IN TOWN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AKZ145-290215-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0001.161129T0900Z-161130T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
403 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY FOR BROAD PASS AND NORTH...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...BROAD PASS AND NORTH.

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
  MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO. 

* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE SOME DURING THE
  DAY TUESDAY THEN DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS
  SHOULD END WEDNESDAY AFTER WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ131-290215-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0005.161129T1500Z-161130T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
403 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...STORM TRACK OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL 
  UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. 

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. 
  VISIBILITY IN TOWN COULD REACH ONE HALF MILE. 

* WIND...NORTH WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH THROUGH
  THE PASS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST 
  THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT.. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

048 
WWAK41 PAFC 281543 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
643 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

.AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RATCHET UP WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. RECENT SNOWFALL WILL BE PICKED
UP AND LOFTED BY THE STRENGTHENING WINDS. WHILE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...THE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE. THOMPSON PASS WILL SEE THE WORST OF CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...BLOWING SNOW IN TOWN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AKZ145-290345-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0001.161129T0900Z-161130T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
643 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY FOR BROAD PASS AND NORTH...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...BROAD PASS AND NORTH.

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
  MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO. 

* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE SOME DURING THE
  DAY TUESDAY THEN DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS
  SHOULD END WEDNESDAY AFTER WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ131-290345-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0005.161129T1500Z-161130T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
643 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...STORM TRACK OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL 
  UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. 

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. 
  VISIBILITY IN TOWN COULD REACH ONE HALF MILE. 

* WIND...NORTH WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH THROUGH
  THE PASS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST 
  THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT.. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

749 
WWAK41 PAFC 281557 CCB 
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
657 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

.AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND CHANNELED TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON
TUESDAY.

AKZ145-290400-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0001.161129T0900Z-161130T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
657 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY FOR BROAD PASS AND NORTH...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...BROAD PASS AND NORTH.

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
  MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO. 

* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE SOME DURING THE
  DAY TUESDAY THEN DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS
  SHOULD END WEDNESDAY AFTER WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ131-290400-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0005.161129T1500Z-161130T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
657 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...STORM TRACK OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL 
  UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. 

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. 
  VISIBILITY IN TOWN COULD REACH ONE HALF MILE. 

* WIND...NORTH WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH THROUGH
  THE PASS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST 
  THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT.. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

074 
WWAK41 PAFC 281826 CCC 
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
926 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

.AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND CHANNELED TERRAIN IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON
TUESDAY.

AKZ145-290630-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0001.161129T0900Z-161130T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
926 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY FOR BROAD PASS AND NORTH...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...BROAD PASS AND NORTH.

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
  MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO. 

* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE SOME DURING THE
  DAY TUESDAY THEN DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS
  SHOULD END WEDNESDAY AFTER WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ131-290630-
/O.COR.PAFC.BZ.A.0005.161129T1500Z-161130T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
926 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...STORM TRACK OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL 
  UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. 

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. 
  VISIBILITY IN TOWN COULD REACH ONE HALF MILE. 

* WIND...NORTH WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH THROUGH
  THE PASS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST 
  THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT.. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

630 
WWAK41 PAFC 290050
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
350 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

AKZ131-291400-
/O.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0005.161129T1500Z-161130T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.161129T1500Z-161130T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
350 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST TUESDAY. THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES...BEGINNING IN THE
  AFTERNOON.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. VISIBILITY
  IN TOWN COULD REACH ONE HALF MILE.

* WIND...NORTH WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH
  THROUGH THE PASS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST 
  THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-291400-
/O.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0001.161129T0900Z-161130T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
350 PM AKST MON NOV 28 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...BROAD PASS AND NORTH.

* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 TO 45 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE SOME DURING THE 
  DAY TUESDAY THEN DROP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS 
  SHOULD END WEDNESDAY AFTER WINDS DIMINISH. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 PM AKST Sun Nov 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low pressure system that brought gusty winds and high seas to
the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula yesterday has now moved
into the Gulf of Alaska and is rapidly weakening as it continues
its eastward trajectory. Meanwhile, a new low is developing in the
Central Aleutians and continuing on a similar track. However, this
new low is much weaker as the main jet support is further south
and east, so warning conditions are not expected as it transits
Alaska. As the core of the upper level jet moves further north, it
deepens the longwave trough over the Bering Sea and begins to
shift it eastward, which indicates a potential pattern change for
the Anchorage area of responsibility.

The low in the Gulf of Alaska remained too far south yesterday to
bring the snow that was expected into the southcentral region this
morning. Additionally, this morning's 12z sounding shows a very
stable and dry layer at 850mb, which indicates that any showers
that moved through last night were likely to dissipate before
hitting the ground. Unfortunately for Southcentral snow lovers,
the air behind this system is too dry to produce anything
significant in the area -- other than some increasing outflow
winds out of northern and western gaps and passes. Winds and seas
will remain high from yesterday's storm, although the upper level
jet is building some shortwave ridging in over the mainland ahead
of the next system, which should help dampen the winds for a brief
period before the next outflow wind event.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Although the models have been consistent in moving the low that's
currently in the Gulf further to the south, they seem to have
overestimated the moisture that would make it onto land. With the
next system expected to impact the southern mainland, there has
been poor run-to-run consistency on where exactly this low will
move on shore. This could have large effects on whether most of
the area sees precipitation, and what type might fall. Current
trajectories of the NAM/GFS solution continue to push this low
further east, with the GEM/EC slowly catching up. A model blend
was used for the low trajectory in the east. Confidence is high
that the next system will produce an outflow wind event for the
southcentral region, but lower on where the edge of the
precipitation may fall. In the west, model consistency has been
better and forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low crossing the Gulf will swing onshore near Yakutat
late tonight. A trailing trough extends from the main low back to
a secondary low forming over Prince William Sound. As the main
low swings inland late tonight through Monday morning the
secondary low will remain anchored over Prince William causing the
elongated trough in between them to pivot across the northern Gulf
Coast and inland, spreading snow into the Copper River Basin.
Additionally, due to the presence trough, offshore westerly gap
winds in Whittier will increase substantially tonight with brisk
north to northeast winds through Thompson Pass. Through the Barren
Islands west winds of 45 to 50 knots will diminish gradually
overnight with west to northwesterly Gales extending east across
much of the Gulf.

Winds will diminish Monday for a brief break before picking up
again in the Gulf Monday night as a rapidly deepening North
Pacific low pressure system approaches the southern Gulf. Strong
outflow winds will increase rapidly through terrain gaps along
the coast Tuesday as the surface low continues north through the
central Gulf. Snow and blowing snow will be a concern both through
Thompson Pass and over the Copper River Basin as the associate
surface front lifts north Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold air advection moving through eastern Bristol Bay will
continue to bring light snow showers through the early evening,
when warm air in advance of an approaching front moves into the
area. While there remains uncertainty as to how far inland
snowfall from this front will reach, there is generally good
agreement that it will bring a brief round of light accumulations
to the Bristol Bay coast late tonight. Areas from Dillingham
westward may see the longest period of snow, however with very
weak dynamics and moisture, any accumualtions should be less than
an inch. As the low associated with this front slowly dissipates
over the eastern Bering, dry and gusty offshore flow will develop
throughout much of the southwest Mainland with through mid week.
With the cold temperatures currently over the area, this may
create wind chills as low as 30 below to interior locations during
the overnight hours, especially Tuesday night when the coldest
air will move into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A front associated with a gale force low will bring rain and
gusty winds from the AK pen, becoming a wet snow as it moves
northward toward the Pribilofs. As this will be a very warm and
wet snow throughout the Pribilofs, blowing snow is not expected
to be an problem with temperatures remaining near or above
freezing. Behind this low the cold air advection is strong enough
to bring widespread snow showers to the central Aleutians, which
will spread into the eastern Aleutians as a wet snow on Monday as
the low slowly dissipates to the north. This will also bring gale
force gusts to the eastern Aleutians, however with the warm
waters in the southern Bering areas of blowing snow are not
expected. Afterwards, an active but far less impactful pattern
will continue into mid-week as a gale-storm force low moves into
the western Aleutians beginning late Monday. This low will then
spread rain and gale force winds throughout the Aleutians through
Wednesday, with another chance of snow to the Pribilofs.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Quite a bit has changed amongst both ensemble and deterministic
guidance since yesterday. As was thought yesterday, an area of low
pressure will skirt the Aleutian Islands Thursday and move into
the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. That is where the similarities end.
Yesterday, models progged this area of low pressure to move across
the northern gulf over Kodiak Island and near Prince William
Sound which would have brought a very decent shot of snowfall
across much of Southcentral Alaska. However, models now prog this
low further south in the Gulf of Alaska which could potentially
keep a good bit of the moisture further south instead of pushing
it inland. At the same time, a brief warm up was expected with the
track of the low pressure system but now it appears that this will
not be the case as the more southern track will likely keep a tap
of colder and drier arctic air over Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska.

The take-away message is that snow chances for interior portions
of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska continue to look quite
disappointing as the synoptic features are tracking just a little
too far north or a little too far south. Some of the coldest
temperatures are expected by next weekend with the potential for
single digit high temperatures over west Anchorage next Sunday.
There is still the potential for snow across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska as models fluctuate so it's something worth
keeping an eye on.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 180 181.
         Storm 130 131 178.
         Gale 119 120 132 155 170 172 173 175 176 177 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MMC