Blizzard Watch 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

265 
WWAK42 PAFC 270005
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
405 PM AKDT SAT MAR 26 2016


AKZ195-271315-
/O.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0003.160327T1500Z-160328T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0004.160327T1500Z-160328T1500Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
405 PM AKDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM AKDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM AKDT
MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

* SNOW...SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 40 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
  INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
  SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND
  SNOWFALL BOTH DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-271315-
/O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0011.160328T0300Z-160328T2100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
405 PM AKDT SAT MAR 26 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
SUNDAY TO 1 PM AKDT MONDAY.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.

* TIMING...VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM BETHEL WEST
  SUNDAY EVENING. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
  NIGHT EAST OF BETHEL AS WINDS INCREASE AND SNOW SPREADS INLAND.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
  IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW
AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS AND
ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 PM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS FROM WESTERN CANADA
WELL INTO THE ARCTIC...WITH A GENERAL LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA. TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH DISTURBANCES NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY APPRECIABLE
GRADIENT PATTERNS BELOW MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL...PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING ON BOTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN.

OUT WEST...A WELL-ORGANIZED GALE-FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR KODIAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TO THE
EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
STREAM OF THE TROUGH THEN SKIRTS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA SUNDAY. THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES EAST AND BECOMES
STATIONARY AND ELONGATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ALCAN BORDER REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF UNUSUALLY WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HELP TO KEEP WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST SATURDAY THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE OFF
WHICH WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL. RIDGING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH KODIAK SUNDAY AND MAKE IT TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY PUSH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON SATURDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM THROUGHOUT THE INLAND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD BE THE ONLY NIGHT OF FOG/STRATUS FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A GALE FORCE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE BERING SEA WILL
BRING INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS AND SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STORM FORCE FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
EVENING WILL BRING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EASTWARD INTO
THE AKPEN...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IN HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO CAUSE PRECIP
TO FALL IN THE FORM OF A WET SNOW OR RAIN. THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
FAVORED THE COOLER SOLUTIONS WHICH KEPT WET SNOW IN THE
AREA...HOWEVER A SWITCHOVER TO RAIN WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS THERE IS
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN AS SNOW...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW BLOWING SNOW WAS
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FURTHER TONIGHT FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WET PATTERN LOOKS TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL STARTING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SOUTH INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC. A JET STREAK OF WELL OVER 100 KT AT 500 MB WILL
ACT AS THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM IN THIS AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A BUILDING EASTERN
PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL FORCE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO TAP
INTO SOME VERY DEEP TROPICAL AIR (SOURCE REGION NEAR HAWAII) AND
ADVECT IT NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 48-84 HOURS
(DEPENDING ON LOCATION) OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ON THE "DRY" SIDE AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN STARTING ON SUNDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL NOT
RECEIVE AS MUCH RAIN AS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS COULD BE AS WARM AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THIS WARM SPELL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO GET STRONGER
HEADING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM A HALF INCH ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
MATANUSKA VALLEY TO UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
(INCLUDING ANCHORAGE). THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE AS
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE GREATEST JET DYNAMICS AND
ADVECTED MOISTURE END UP. HOWEVER...WITH A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF
THE COASTAL RANGE. AS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS LOOK TO BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT SOME PLACES MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...178.
         GALE WARNING 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DWK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MC