Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1124 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

Increased winds a touch tonight and Wed morning. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track with fairly quiet weather expected until
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

One more day of mild weather before a storm begins to bear down on
the region. Ridging aloft will continue to support a mild airmass
over the region on Wednesday, with well above normal temperatures
expected again. On Thursday a storm will begin to near the region,
with WAA pcpn likely breaking out a head of the main upper trof.
Most of the pcpn on Thursday over the CWA should be rain or maybe a
rain/snow mix out far west. Overnight Thursday night is when the
cold air starts to filter southeast over the region, with a change
over from rain to snow. The latest model runs have converged
somewhat on a bit further south track of both the sfc/mid level
system. All models have sped up the system a bit, and have backed
off some on QPF. Latest thinking is that much of the CWA will see
some snow, with potentially a range of 3 to 6 across the area,
perhaps a bit more in the far east CWA where models suggest more
influence from a developing trowal. System does move off pretty
quickly Friday evening but some wind will remain. Speaking of
wind, had to adjust winds up for Thursday through Friday as the
model blend was not nearly strong enough based on the strength of
the forecast sfc low. Temperatures will dip to near or below
normal late this week into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

The long term portion of the forecast begins with northwest flow
aloft and a surface high pressure over the Dakotas. This high
pressure will bring dry, but cold temperatures to the region
Saturday through at least Sunday. While highs in the low to mid 30s
are expected on Sunday, these reading are within 3 to 5 degrees of
normal. The surface high will shift east of the region on Sunday
night, allowing WAA to spread into the region, along with increasing
heights. While this is a good sign for above normal temperatures,
snow cover and snow depth will certainly limit temperatures. Have
lowered highs some on Monday and Tuesday, especially in eastern SD
and western MN where a deeper snow pack looks likely. Another storm
system may pass through the CWA Monday night through Tuesday.
Mixed pcpn will be possible with this storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. As a dry sfc low
moves through the region on Wednesday, southerly winds will
become gusty ahead of it and winds will shift to the north behind
the low.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
425 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-161100-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
425 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2016 /325 AM MST TUE NOV 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. STRONG NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KF