Wind Advisory 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

746 
WWUS73 KABR 161719
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1219 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

SDZ003-015-016-033>035-045-048-170000-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160317T0000Z/
CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKPALA...ISABEL...GETTYSBURG...
MISSION RIDGE...ONIDA...PIERRE...MURDO...KENNEBEC
1219 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 /1119 AM MDT WED MAR 16 2016/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  EARLY EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH 
  ARE EXPECTED. 

* IMPACTS...SUDDEN WIND GUSTS CAN CAUSE DRIVERS TO LOSE 
  CONTROL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHTWEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
TMT

800 
WWUS73 KABR 162325
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016


SDZ003-015-016-033>035-045-048-170030-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160317T0000Z/
CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKPALA...ISABEL...GETTYSBURG...
MISSION RIDGE...ONIDA...PIERRE...MURDO...KENNEBEC
625 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 /525 PM MDT WED MAR 16 2016/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH GOOD MIXING AND MILD 925MB TEMPS...HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SEEING SOME AFTERNOON CU
POPPING UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A DEEPER CU FIELD OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MT. KBIS/KUNR RADARS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES
WHICH COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION OF POPS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA...BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET AND
COULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT TO CENTRAL SD. HAVE ALSO BEEN
WATCHING RH TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE IN FACT
DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA. ALTHOUGH...HAVE NOT
SEEN ANYTHING BELOW 20 PERCENT AS OF YET. IT DOES SEEM THAT THE
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR/HOP WRF FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
TOO DRY WITH THE RH VALUES TODAY.

LOOKING AT A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S
FOR MOST AREAS WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE. ON WEDNESDAY 925
MB TEMPS COOL A BIT MORE SO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE TODAY AND COULD IN
FACT HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WESTERN CWA. WILL HOLD OFF
ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT SORT OUT DETAILS
WITH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. ITS LIKELY A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVENT
ANYWAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH PERHAPS LOW END CRITERIA OUT WEST.
HAVE ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. POP COMPARE AMONGST THE MODELS
AND HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL. SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT DRY BELOW
THE CLOUD LAYER...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATE BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY.
SFC TEMPS SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT NIGHT BUT RAIN DURING THE
DAY. ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANY PRECIP WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS...THEN
ITS SPLITSVILLE. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
DOWNSTREAM TROF IS EXPECTED. OLD MID LEVEL LOW/SHEAR AXIS COULD
PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DRYING IS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG AS ENERGY IN THE
PACIFIC CRASHES THROUGH IT BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.  THAT ENERGY
SHOULD BRING SOME MORE PCPN TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. THE ISSUES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS MIXING OUT ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE COULD AFFECT THE STATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
BY NOON AND DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
323 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-162030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
323 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 /223 PM MDT TUE MAR 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TMT