Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
246 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

The 19Z sfc analysis shows the SD low centered from Faulk through
Beadle to Hutchinson Counties, with a trough extending east near the
Cheyenne River and Cherry Creek.

Finally starting to get some better clearing across central SD this
afternoon, which will result in better mixing and increasing
westerly winds behind the cold front. This is the area with the Red
Flag Warning. It is borderline conditions, but with very dry air
surging in from the west and RH values of 11 percent already at RAP,
am hesitant to get rid of it. Will continue to re-evaluate, but at
this point it looks like a low end warning. This is the area with
very little rain over the past several days, in contrast to
northeastern SD and west central MN where over 5 inches has fallen
last night into this morning. This is in addition to the 1-3 inches
that fell the previous night. Will continue the Flood Warning for
southern Traverse, Bit Stone, northern Grand, Roberts, and eastern
Day Counties until 6pm Central. High PW values of 1.5-2in remain
over this area, and we are looking into additional showers and
thunderstorm development this afternoon-evening.

Slowed down the overall exit of precip tonight, as was needed based
on the convection remaining between MBG and Eureka, but north of a
west to east oriented boundary north of Rapid City. A little
concerned that there could be fog developing over our MN counties
09-12Z Tuesday where the heaviest rain has fallen.

The sfc low over our area will slide up along the Red River Valley
and combine with the low over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba by 06Z
and deepen. As a result, have borderline Wind Advisory conditions
going for the far northwestern 3 counties for Tuesday. Expect highs
in the 80s Wednesday. Am a little concerned, given the large cloud
shield today and an overall deepening system that our clouds may
need to be increased Tuesday.

Increased winds for Wednesday afternoon as our winds at or above
20kts just above the sfc remain. Concentrated the highest winds over
the north and northwestern corner of the forecast area as high
pressure quickly surges in from the west-northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

The medium range models keep the general trend of northwest flow
over the area transitioning to a ridge pattern later in the period.
While there is no clear signal for precipitation timing, a general
trend of afternoon and evening thunderstorms looks ok.

Temps will be on the upward trend through the period, with 80s and
low 90s for the weekend. Strong upper ridge looks to be setting up
across the southern plains later in period allowing for rising
temps, dewpoint and chances of afternoon and evening storms as
shortwaves move across the periphery of the ridge. A typical summer
pattern setting up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THROUGH 00Z. KABR
AND KATY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS,
AND HAIL. LOCAL IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ267.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Scarlett

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
249 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-122000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
249 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 /149 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
CATEGORY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT OR BELOW AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REACH VERY HIGH LEVELS
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY...DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON..MAINLY EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER.

KF

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