Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
426 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 423 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

The threat for severe storms this afternoon through this evening
will be the main forecast concern.

An area of low pressure currently over northwest SD will lift
northward and track across North Dakota today. A trailing cold front
will slide across this CWA today and will become the focal point
for convection. The front will produce isolated to scattered
thunderstorms for the western half of the CWA before 18Z.
After 18Z...the front should begin interacting with a
warm...unstable environment in the eastern CWA where ML cape
values of 1500 to 2000 J/KG are likely. The instability along
with mid level height falls and 20 to 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk
shear will produce an increase in storm coverage and intensity.
With SPC highlighting our eastern CWA with a slight risk...have
decided to introduce severe wording into the forecast. Believe
hail and damaging winds will be the main threat this afternoon. A
tornado threat is possible in far NE SD or near the triple point
and along the warm front extending into MN. With fairly high
PWATS...torrential rainfall will be possible with some
thunderstorms. Thankfully storms will be fairly progressive and
flash flooding is not expected.

Convection should exit the CWA by 3Z Monday with dry conditions
likely until Monday night. Another area of low pressure and upper
level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
region Monday night through Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected
with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

When the period opens, a low pressure system is departing South
Dakota for Minnesota, taking with it most of the precipitation
potential. Both at the surface and aloft, much of late Tuesday night
through Thursday is influenced by high pressure. So, after the
precipitation chances finish up Tuesday night, Wednesday through
Thursday is dry and low level thermal progs support temperatures
running generally around to perhaps a few degrees above normal.
During the upcoming weekend there could be a couple of chances for
precipitation. Not dealing with the strongest/warmest of upper level
ridges this next weekend. And as shortwaves work into the middle of
the country and suppress the upper ridge, there are a couple of /in
particular/ night-time periods with the potential for a stalled out
or nearly stationary frontal boundary to be in play and perhaps even
some low level jet activity to aide/focus forcing for ascent.
Subject to change of course, but presently the GFS/ECMWF
deterministic solutions seem to agree on Friday evening/night as
well as late Saturday night and then again monday night as being
timeframes when precipitation could be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

Vfr conditions are expected through the entire taf valid period at
all locations. Strong winds off the surface may bring some llws to
pir and mbg early this morning. A cold front sliding across the
region on Sunday will bring a shift in the winds to the northwest
along with some showers and storms developing across the east during
the afternoon. These may affect abr and aty.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-130915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
403 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEED THIS AFTERNOON.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-130915-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
403 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 /303 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
313 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016

SDZ003-015-121000-
CORSON SD-DEWEY SD-
313 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEWEY...NORTHWESTERN
CAMPBELL AND EASTERN CORSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM MDT...

AT 312 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF GRAND RIVER CASINO...OR 11 MILES WEST OF MOBRIDGE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCLAUGHLIN...WAKPALA...LITTLE EAGLE...KENEL AND MAHTO.

LAT...LON 4594 10050 4587 10039 4583 10038 4546 10060
      4557 10092 4594 10088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 208DEG 32KT 4558 10066

SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
449 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

SDZ003-004-009-015-121045-
CORSON SD-CAMPBELL SD-DEWEY SD-WALWORTH SD-
449 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DEWEY...SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL...SOUTHEASTERN CORSON...NORTHWESTERN POTTER AND WESTERN
WALWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT/445 AM MDT/...

AT 447 AM CDT/347 AM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SEVERAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OF THEM LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RIDGEVIEW...OR 25 MILES EAST OF EAGLE BUTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM...AS WELL AS THE OTHER STRONG STORMS IN THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBRIDGE...GLENHAM...AKASKA...WHITE HORSE...SWIFTBIRD DAY SCHOOL...
RIDGEVIEW...REVHEIM BAY REC AREA...GRAND RIVER CASINO...SWAN CREEK REC
AREA...NEW EVERETS RESORT...PROMISE...INDIAN CREEK REC AREA...TRAIL CITY...
INDIAN MEMORIAL REC AREA...LAKE OAHE...TIOSPAYE TOPA SCHOOL...BLACKFOOT
AND LAPLANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN ABERDEEN.

&&

LAT...LON 4561 10027 4528 10010 4524 10015 4525 10026
      4514 10029 4487 10065 4504 10100 4561 10087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0947Z 211DEG 25KT 4499 10070

DORN