Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Aberdeen, SD

299 
WWUS53 KABR 030248
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
948 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

SDC045-049-059-069-107-119-129-030300-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-160603T0300Z/
SULLY SD-FAULK SD-EDMUNDS SD-POTTER SD-WALWORTH SD-HYDE SD-HAND SD-
948 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SULLY...FAULK...SOUTHWESTERN EDMUNDS...EASTERN
POTTER...EAST CENTRAL WALWORTH...NORTHERN HYDE AND NORTHWESTERN HAND
COUNTIES...

AT 946 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSCOE TO NEAR BURKMERE TO 11
MILES NORTH OF HIGHMORE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AT 933 PM CDT REPORTED A 70 MPH
         WIND GUST AT TOLSTOY. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FAULKTON...ROSCOE...ORIENT AND LOYALTON AROUND 955 PM CDT. 
  MIRANDA AND POLO AROUND 1000 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 9894 4457 9912 4456 9980 4496 9958
      4540 9977 4548 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 262DEG 40KT 4538 9944 4499 9926 4468 9939 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

LUECK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
837 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

A line of storms in central sd was moving east into better
instability this evening. Also, the llj will be increasing through
the rest of the evening and overnight in advance of the storms.
Thus, expect the line to continue to move east through the night
with possible strong winds and hail. Updated earlier to increase
pops.

UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

The threat for severe storms tonight and again Friday afternoon will
be the forecast concerns.

As of 19Z...a warm front is draped NW to SE across South Dakota with
dew points in the 50s south of the front. The warm front should
continue lifting northward through this afternoon and will
eventually be a focal point for convective development. Storms
should develop over eastern Montana within the next hour or two as
an upper level trough spreads across the region. The storms will
then track E-SE across the CWA along the warm front. At this time
north central South Dakota has the best potential of seeing severe
storms...mainly between 0-3Z. Damaging winds will be the main
threat. Based on CAPE values this evening...there is an isolated
hail threat as well. Convection may evolve into an MCS as a decent
LLJ develops over central and eastern SD. The threat for damaging
winds will continue through the early morning hours...fueled by
the LLJ and strong 500 MB winds. Convection should push east of
the CWA by 15Z Friday with dry conditions possible for a few
hours. Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon
along a cold front. Still believe locations along and east of I-29
will see strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms based on high CAPE
values and good shear. Am a bit concerned with convection
developing further west per the ARW and NMM.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon...mainly east of the James River Valley. Model soundings
are showing very steep lapse rates along with weak instability to
warrant an increase in pops.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

The extended period kicks off with northwest flow aloft which will
suppress high temps a bit. By Tuesday night an upper ridge will
begin to build over the region. This will draw in some warmer
temperatures mid week. However, an area of weak sfc low pressure and
some upper level shortwave activity will mean increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms as well late Wednesday through Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

An upper level low pressure trough digging into the region
from the northwest along with a surface cold front sweeping through
will bring thunderstorms to the region tonight into early Friday
affecting all locations. There could be some very strong winds along
with heavy rain and small hail with them along with ifr/mvfr
ceilings and visibilities. Expect all locations to be affected at
the station or in the vicinity tonight into early Friday. Otherwise,
scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping on Friday could
affect ABR and ATY. Conditions should be mainly vfr through the
period.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-031200-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
338 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 /238 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OVER MAINLY
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
828 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

SDZ009-015-016-033>035-030215-
SULLY SD-DEWEY SD-WALWORTH SD-HUGHES SD-STANLEY SD-POTTER SD-
828 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SULLY...NORTH CENTRAL STANLEY...
NORTH CENTRAL HUGHES...EASTERN DEWEY...WESTERN POTTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT/815 PM MDT/...

AT 827 PM CDT/727 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF PROMISE TO
NEAR SUTTON BAY REC AREA TO NEAR OKOBOJO POINT REC AREA. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GETTYSBURG...ONIDA...AGAR...AKASKA...LAPLANT...COW CREEK REC AREA...OKOBOJO
POINT REC AREA...SWIFTBIRD...WHITLOCKS BAY REC AREA...LITTLE BEND REC
AREA...SUTTON BAY REC AREA...COTTONWOOD LAKE NEAR AGAR...SPRING CREEK
REC AREA...GORMAN...SULLY LAKE...SOUTHERN LAKE OAHE...SWAN CREEK REC
AREA...BUSH'S LANDING AND TIOSPAYE TOPA SCHOOL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT/1100
PM MDT/ FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4489 9986 4446 10002 4459 10079 4492 10072
      4531 10079 4536 10002
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 272DEG 35KT 4524 10057 4491 10046 4462 10056

LUECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
902 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW WHITLOCKS BAY REC 45.01N 100.29W
06/02/2016  M55 MPH          POTTER             SD   PUBLIC

            PEAK WIND GUSTS AT FOREST CITY BRIDGE RWIS.

&&

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
904 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

SDZ033>035-045-048-030245-
SULLY SD-JONES SD-LYMAN SD-HUGHES SD-STANLEY SD-
904 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SULLY...SOUTHEASTERN
STANLEY...NORTHWESTERN HUGHES...NORTHEASTERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN
LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT/845 PM MDT/...

AT 903 PM CDT/803 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHANTLER CREEK RECREATION AREA...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
FORT PIERRE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIERRE...FORT PIERRE...OVERLOOK REC AREA...CHANTLER CREEK RECREATION
AREA...GREY GOOSE...SPRING CREEK REC AREA...WENDTE...OAHE MISSION REC
AREA AND WEST SHORE REC AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT/1100
PM MDT/ FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4410 10072 4447 10077 4462 10024 4415 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 253DEG 28KT 4441 10063

LUECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
913 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SW CHANTLER CREEK RE 44.39N 100.77W
06/02/2016  M59 MPH          STANLEY            SD   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST AT HAYES RWIS.

&&

MC