Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
340 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A weak frontal boundary returning northward this afternoon along
with surface heating has resulted in quite a bit of low and mid
level clouds over our cwa. These should dissipate/lift north through
the evening. Otherwise, surface high pressure centered in Canada
with ridging extending south into the northern plains will build
ever so slowly east through the Thursday night. With surface low
pressure moving in from the west, the surface pressure gradient will
be tightening up along with an increasing llj. Therefore, south
winds will slowly be on the increase from Wednesday into Thursday.
This flow will also keep the above normal temperature trend going
through the short term with highs ranging from 80 to 90 or so. With
sharp upper level ridging moving across our region bringing general
subsidence and low rh air, expect little or no cloud cover through
the period along with dry conditions. Fire weather conditions may
be an issue towards Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The extended will be dominated by an upper trof that slowly
progresses from the Pacific Northwest into the central CONUS. There
appears to be several shortwaves embedded within the longwave trof
which, along with a front stalled across the northern/central plains
and broad area of high pressure to the east, will result in a period
of inclement weather which spans Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler air
will eventually work into the CWA towards the end of the period as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VFR for all terminals with a south/southeast wind.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
825 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-311330-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
825 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 /725 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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