Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Aberdeen, SD

788 
WWUS53 KABR 162356
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
656 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

SDC039-051-170015-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0260.000000T0000Z-160817T0015Z/
DEUEL SD-GRANT SD-
656 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DEUEL AND SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 655 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALBEE...OR 7
MILES SOUTH OF MILBANK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALBEE AROUND 705 PM CDT. 
  REVILLO AROUND 710 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4493 9668 4516 9674 4521 9651 4516 9645
      4495 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 327DEG 25KT 4511 9659 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TDK

848 
WWUS53 KABR 170008
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
708 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

SDC039-051-170015-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0260.000000T0000Z-160817T0015Z/
DEUEL SD-GRANT SD-
708 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DEUEL AND SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 707 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER REVILLO...OR
13 MILES SOUTH OF MILBANK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN DEUEL AND SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4493 9668 4508 9666 4512 9655 4509 9647
      4495 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 331DEG 25KT 4503 9656 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TDK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
342 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

A weak sfc trough, assisted by a shortwave sliding in on the
northwesterly flow aloft, will be the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development over the rest of the afternoon and early
evening hours as it shifts to western MN. At 19Z, the sfc trough was
more visible by the line of clouds from southeastern ND through ABR
to PIR. Expect stronger storms to remain on or southeast of this
line, where dewpoints has been able to jump into the mid 60s. Strong
storms have already developed just to our north, along the ND/SD
border, and continue to slide southeast. This was not well forecast
by the small scale models, with one of the best being the HRRR.

High pressure will build into the region tonight, bringing dry
weather and light winds (directly overhead 06-12Z Wednesday). Highs
over the southwestern third of the CWA will still rise into the low
90s. The main concern for Wednesday will move to fire weather, but
with light winds the Grassland Fire Danger Index will probably reach
moderate levels again.

Look for unsettled weather to return late Wednesday night over
central SD, and expand to the rest of the area through at least
Thursday night. The main time period of concern will be late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Agree with the SPC
placement of a slight risk for severe wx, as the sfc low over south
central SD at 18Z and the warm front extending to the ND/SD/MN
border, slowly sink to the southeast to just southeast of the
forecast area by 06Z Friday. Dewpoints will again rise into the
upper 60s. There could be a strong enough cap over the area to limit
thunderstorms during the early to mid afternoon hours Thursday. As a
result, kept pops in the slight to chance categories before becoming
likely Thursday night. Will not get too fancy with specifics as it's
still day 3 night, but will continue to mention the potential in the
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Very good agreement amongst the models through the long term with
chances of showers and storms early on along with a big cool down.
The long term begins with a cold front off to our southeast pushing
away from our region along with a large 50h low pressure trough axis
off to our northwest. This trough, with several embedded vorts, will
make its way slowly across the region through Saturday night.
Therefore, good chances of showers and storms are expected at least
through Saturday afternoon. At the surface, Canadian high pressure
will slowly build into the region Friday through Saturday night
bringing much below normal temperatures for both Friday and
Saturday. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s
across the cwa. The rest of the long term looks to be dry along with
a warm up as northwest flow aloft is replaced by westerly flow with
rising heights. The surface high pressure area over region on Sunday
morning will build east with south winds returning and remaining
into Tuesday. Therefore, highs in the 70s on Sunday are expected to
warm back into the 80s by Tuesday. May have to introduce some
chances of showers and storms again on Tuesday as a cold front
pushes in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Other than a small possibility of some showers/storms at or in the
vicinity of the ATY terminal late this afternoon/early evening...vfr
conditions are expected at all terminals through tonight and
Wednesday morning.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
503 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-037-171015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-HAND-
503 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>036-045-048-051-171015-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
503 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 /403 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
506 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

SDZ023-162230-
DEUEL SD-
506 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEUEL COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GARY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF CLEAR LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARY...BRANDT...MORITZ AND LAKE COCHRANE REC AREA.

LAT...LON 4466 9663 4491 9656 4489 9645 4473 9645
      4463 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 285DEG 38KT 4477 9646

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-162300-
TRAVERSE MN-BIG STONE MN-ROBERTS SD-
523 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN TRAVERSE...NORTHWESTERN
BIG STONE AND WEST CENTRAL ROBERTS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER DAKOTA CONNECTION & CASINO...OR OVER SISSETON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SISSETON...BROWNS VALLEY...PEEVER...DAKOTA CONNECTION & CASINO...
PEEVER FLATS HOUSING...AGENCY VILLAGE AND LAKE TRAVERSE.

LAT...LON 4570 9711 4575 9696 4561 9678 4547 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 328DEG 20KT 4565 9700

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
604 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

SDZ023-162330-
DEUEL SD-
604 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DEUEL COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ASTORIA...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEAR LAKE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TORONTO AND ASTORIA.

LAT...LON 4455 9660 4454 9664 4461 9669 4466 9652
      4463 9645 4454 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 315DEG 18KT 4458 9656

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
607 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

SDZ008-021-162330-
GRANT SD-ROBERTS SD-
607 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRANT AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ROBERTS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WILMOT...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILBANK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILMOT...CORONA AND BIG STONE LAKE.

LAT...LON 4540 9698 4551 9683 4536 9661 4526 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 315DEG 18KT 4540 9683

TDK