Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Aberdeen, SD

859 
WWUS53 KABR 150106
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
806 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDC041-107-119-150130-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-160815T0130Z/
SULLY SD-DEWEY SD-POTTER SD-
806 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM
CDT/730 PM MDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN SULLY...SOUTHEASTERN DEWEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 806 PM CDT/706 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OAHE...OR 27 MILES EAST OF EAGLE
BUTTE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWIFTBIRD...SWIFTBIRD DAY SCHOOL AND WHITLOCKS BAY REC AREA AROUND 
  830 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4505 10108 4520 10087 4529 10040 4506 10027
      4479 10028 4480 10107 4499 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 259DEG 31KT 4496 10067 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LUECK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. With a developing
moderate jet across central SD, some severe storms have already
formed this evening. Large hail and strong winds will be the main
threats. Current forecast pops cover the storm potential well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

A surface high pressure is shifting east of the region this
afternoon with return flow developing west river. While surface
moisture within the return flow is unimpressive, moisture is
increasing at 850 mb. The moisture, along with a weak upper level
shortwave currently over Montana, will contribute to convection near
the Black Hills this afternoon. As the shortwave progresses eastward
tonight, showers and thunderstorms should move across this CWA. Some
thunderstorms in south central SD later this evening could become
strong with small hail and gusty winds possible. Based on a slow
storm motion, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Instability diminishes east of the Missouri River with strong storms
unlikely.

The threat for strong to severe storms on Monday is a little more
unclear. A shortwave will be located over the Northern Plains with
surface low over central SD. Warm, moist air looks possible ahead of
a low pressure system with MU-CAPE values around 2K J/KG.
Depending on which model used, 0-6 KM bulk shear values should
average between 25 to 35 knots. This setup should be efficient
enough for iso/sct severe storms. However moisture return is
questionable, as the the position of the surface low. The surface
low and upper level shortwave will progress east of the region on
Tuesday with conditions drying out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The medium range forecast models are coming into better agreement
regarding the upcoming pattern change that will occur on Thursday
night. Very warm/hot temps with dewpoints in the 60s will occur on
Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will increase on
Thursday and Thursday night as a strong trough of low pressure
brings a potent cold front to the region. The best chances for
storms appear to be Thursday evening. After the front moves through,
temps will see a considerable cooldown with highs only the low to
mid 70s by Saturday and Sunday. Chances of thunderstorms will
decrease fairly quickly as the front moves through Friday morning,
leaving a cooler and mostly dry weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period except in the
vicinity of thunderstorms. An area of storms has developed across
western SD and is moving into central SD this evening. Some of
these storms may be severe and could impact KMBG or KPIR by 2z.
The storms will continue to move east overnight and through the
early morning hours, though severe potential is expected to
diminish in the east.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
431 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-150945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
431 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 /331 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SD AND MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION MONDAY COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SERR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDZ003-142245-
CORSON SD-
405 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CORSON COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

AT 404 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF SHAMBO RANCH...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEMMON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL CORSON
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4575 10200 4584 10186 4564 10169 4552 10196
      4556 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 229DEG 12KT 4564 10192

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
603 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             SHAMBO RANCH            45.53N 101.83W
08/14/2016  E2.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            QUE BALL AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

KG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
543 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDZ015-150030-
DEWEY SD-
543 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEWEY COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...

AT 542 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ISABEL...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF LANTRY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LANTRY...ISABEL...FIRESTEEL...GREEN GRASS...
BEAR CREEK AND LITTLE MOREAU REC AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4504 10148 4538 10149 4539 10147 4547 10147
      4536 10088 4499 10132 4500 10150 4503 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 293DEG 19KT 4531 10139

LUECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
715 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW GREEN GRASS        45.21N 101.31W
08/14/2016  E60 MPH          DEWEY              SD   PUBLIC

            .

&&

KG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
735 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

SDZ015-016-033-034-150115-
SULLY SD-DEWEY SD-STANLEY SD-POTTER SD-
735 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SULLY...NORTH
CENTRAL STANLEY...DEWEY AND WESTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT/715 PM MDT/...

AT 735 PM CDT/635 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARADE...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF EAGLE BUTTE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE BUTTE...LANTRY...WHITE HORSE...SWIFTBIRD DAY SCHOOL...
RIDGEVIEW...LITTLE BEND REC AREA...GREEN GRASS...BEAR CREEK...
SOUTHERN LAKE OAHE...TIOSPAYE TOPA SCHOOL...LAPLANT AND PARADE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM
CDT/MIDNIGHT MDT/ FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4504 10148 4505 10148 4516 10130 4536 10122
      4525 10034 4493 10043 4464 10066 4483 10114
      4486 10113 4499 10114 4500 10150 4503 10150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 288DEG 28KT 4510 10105

LUECK