Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
657 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

The first round of convection quickly getting going on the WAA along
the ND/SD border has mainly stayed to the north, and been limited
across SD through 1945Z. Will continue to monitor as several
boundaries are now set up across the CWA. This primes us for later
this afternoon. Continue to have Severe Thunderstorm watch 439 in
effect until 8pm CDT this evening. Starting to see more cells
rapidly pop up east of ABR just before 20Z as the heat index values
rise above 100 across much of the area, with the dewpoint already up
to 75 at ABR. Small scale models have been of little help this
afternoon. The HiRes-ARW was one of the most promising solutions,
but had a bowing feature over northeastern SD at this time. Will
continue to monitor the current trends.

The second round of convection should be centered closer to the sfc
low southwest of PIR. Timing is still a concern with the evening
convection, but wind and hail look to be the main threats. Much of
the area also remains in the 5% tornado area, or probability of a
tornado within 25 miles of a point. Good shear and an intensifying
LLJ will be the story tonight. DCAPE values will be over 1000j/kg.
Am also concerned about the heavy rain potential with any stronger
storms as PW values are closer to 2-2.25in along northern SD and
eastern SD/west central MN through around 09Z. Consensus is to have
the thunderstorm activity restricted to the eastern third of the CWA
after 06Z Thursday, as the low slow moving sfc low slides to our
southeast counties by daybreak Thursday. Still have slow chance pops
going through the day over eastern SD and west central MN, but
severe potential will be off to our southeast during the day
Thursday.

Otherwise through Friday night, the trend will be slowly increasing
pressure with temperatures returning to near normal values Thursday
and Friday afternoon on northerly winds on the back side of the low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

An upper trough will finish exiting to the northeast on Saturday. A
broad ridge will build in for the start of next week. However, by
Monday night weak sfc low pressure and a few weak shortwaves will
traverse the Dakotas. At the moment, the energy does not seem
sufficient to overcome drier air near the sfc so pops remain low in
the forecast. Cannot completely rule out a shower or two Mon through
Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s
under the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through the night as an upper
level low pressure trough and surface cold front moves through the
region. All terminals could be affected at or in the vicinity into
the early morning hours. There could be some mvfr ceilings and vsbys
with the storms if they affect a terminal. Otherwise, vfr conditions
are expected through tonight and Thursday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ006-010-
     016>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-110915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
410 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 /310 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TODAY...DRAWING A SECOND
SURGE OF HOT AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH OUR HUMID
CONDITIONS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND 105
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING WE WILL ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. STORMS WILL PROCEED TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. CANT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
722 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             4 S HILLSVIEW           45.61N 99.56W
08/10/2016  E1.25 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

SRF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     TSTM WND GST     IPSWICH                 45.44N 99.03W
08/10/2016  E50 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

            40 TO 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRAVENS CORNER          45.44N 98.93W
08/10/2016  M60 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   MESONET

            .

&&

SRF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRAVENS CORNER          45.44N 98.93W
08/10/2016  M69 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   MESONET

            .

&&

SRF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
951 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     MINA                    45.44N 98.76W
08/10/2016  E70 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED THROUGH EM.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
957 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW RICHMOND LAKE REC 45.47N 98.64W
08/10/2016  M75 MPH          BROWN              SD   MESONET

            .

&&

KS